The 2026 NFL Draft is finally streamlining as we move towards the national championship game. Up until now, Fernando Mendoza, Dante Moore, and even Arvell Reese have been alternating as the top overall pick. But now, an NFL insider has offered some much-needed clarity on how this draft might actually shake out, especially about Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson.​

“But sitting here right now on January 2, it’s hard for me to imagine that Fernando Mendoza is not the number one pick,” NFL Network insider Tom Pelissero said on the Rich Eisen Show. “This is not a really deep quarterback draft. Again, for that same reason I just talked about. Some of those other names that you heard here, the other ones obviously, the Oregon quarterback has certainly been in that conversation. Ty Simpson from Alabama, if he chooses to come out, I think, would have a chance to go certainly in the first round.”​

Pelissero continued by outlining the Raiders’ situation and explaining why Mendoza makes so much sense for them.

“There are a lot of teams that need quarterbacks right now. There’s not a lot of quarterbacks to be had, which is where you potentially could see some horse trading up at the top here,” he explained. “If the Raiders end up with the number one pick, it’s really hard. Again, pre this process, it’s hard for me to imagine the Raiders not standing in and Fernando Mendoza heading from Bloomington to Vegas.” 

The $7.7 billion Raiders desperately need a franchise quarterback after years of instability at the position. Mendoza’s 6-foot-5, 225-pound frame, combined with outstanding pocket presence, makes him the prototypical pocket passer that Tom Brady’s front office influence would covet. His ability to put the ball exactly where it needs to be is what separates him from the rest of this quarterback class. The Raiders franchise hasn’t had the No. 1 overall pick since the ill-fated JaMarcus Russell selection in 2007. For them, getting this one right is absolutely critical.​

As for Ty Simpson, Pelissero’s endorsement as a potential first-rounder is significant. Simpson’s skill is about how the game seems to slow down for him in ways that usually take years to develop. He processes defenses quickly and trusts throwing windows before they’re wide open. These are the traits that NFL evaluators obsess over. The knock on Simpson has been his deep-ball accuracy. But those struggles appear to have been linked to a back injury that limited his ability to drive the ball downfield. 

If Simpson declares, he’s betting on teams valuing his intangibles and developmental upside. And given how thin this quarterback class is, that bet might just pay off with a first-round selection.​

Simpson’s case against going Top-10

Not everyone’s convinced that Ty Simpson deserves to be drafted in the first round, let alone the top 10. And the skeptics have some pretty compelling arguments. 

CBS Sports’ Josh Edwards put it perfectly when he said, “Charles Dickens once told the Tale of Two Cities, but for Simpson, it is the tale of two seasons. For a month, maybe a month-plus, there was not a better quarterback in the country. He was making good decisions with the football and putting his pass catchers in a position to make plays. However, during the second half of the season, his accuracy dipped precipitously, specifically under pressure.” 

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The numbers back up Edwards’ concerns. Through the first seven games of 2025, Simpson posted a 0.39 EPA per dropback with an eye-popping 18 touchdowns and just one interception. But over the final seven games, that EPA plummeted to -0.05 with only 10 touchdowns and four interceptions.

That dramatic drop-off happened when Alabama started facing elite defenses, with Simpson struggling mightily against teams ranked in the top 15 in defensive efficiency while looking like an All-American against weaker competition. Edwards concluded bluntly, “That’s not to say Simpson won’t be a great player in time, but top-10 overall is too rich right now.”​

The deeper you dig into Simpson’s tape, the more red flags emerge beyond just the second-half struggles. Simpson fumbled five consecutive games late in the season, showing questionable ball security and pocket awareness when pressure arrives. So, according to some, in a weak quarterback class, Simpson might be enough to sneak into the late first round, but it’s a far cry from the top-10 lock some draft analysts have made him out to be.​