The arrival of Bill Belichick in Chapel Hill dared North Carolina fans to dream big. Talk about instant credibility! This man’s got eight Super Bowl rings. But here we are, four weeks into the 2025 season, and UNC’s 2-2. The wins are over cupcake teams like Charlotte and Richmond. The losses are to TCU and UCF. But it was the way they lost. The Tar Heels under such a coach should not be getting dominated by such teams.

Perhaps, the biggest nightmare is the 34-9 stomping at UCF in Week 4. After that, the Tar Heels limped into their bye week and folks are starting to question if Belichick can turn the ship around in time. On 99.9 The Fan, Tim Donnelly didn’t beat around the bush. “Six wins. Six is what it takes,” he said. “They have two through their non-conference schedule. And they’re going into a bye week. Then they have eight conference games staring them in the face… And if you lose any of those now, you’re stealing one from Virginia or Clemson or Duke or State… When are they going to get a backbone? Because if they don’t gain it during this bye week, I don’t think it’s going to grow organically.” And that’s not just local talk radio getting restless.

USA TODAY Sports already has UNC listed among the ACC frauds, alongside Clemson and SMU. Blake Toppmeyer didn’t mince his words. “Unless you’re a degenerate gambler or own a closet full of Carolina blue, you might not have realized Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels played this weekend,” he wrote. “The Labor Day hype turned to crickets. The Tar Heels gained just 217 yards, which would be considered a feat at Florida, but is bad just about anywhere else. Quarterback Gio Lopez exited in the second half with an apparent leg injury.”

Bill Belichick, ever composed, tried to frame it as work in progress. “We’ll take a look at not just this game but the first four weeks, address the errors we feel need to be improved the most and work on those,” he said after the UCF loss. “We’ll do what we feel like we need to do to improve the team.” History, though, doesn’t inspire confidence. Since 1999, UNC has endured 11 seasons with multiple blowout losses, 20+ points, and only one of those years hit bowl eligibility. After losing 34-9 to TCU and 25-0 at UCF, the trajectory is frighteningly familiar. With the non-conference slate behind them and a 2-2 record offering little comfort, the real test for UNC starts when conference play kicks in.

Bill Belichick and UNC’s conference conundrum

Initially, the ACC schedule looked manageable. No Miami, no Florida State, and no Georgia Tech or Louisville. But after four rough weeks, UNC’s path feels tough. TeamRankings.com gives them just a 24.9% chance to reach bowl eligibility. To get there, the Tar Heels would probably need four more wins out of eight matchups. Stanford (56.7%) and Wake Forest (48%) are the only reasonably winnable contests, and both come in November after grueling road trips and two off weeks sandwiching the ACC opener against Clemson. 

The rest of the schedule isn’t forgiving. Five remaining opponents have winning records, including California and Syracuse, both on the road. That Clemson matchup on October 4 looms huge not because UNC becomes an ACC contender with a win, but because they can expose the Tigers as the frauds they’re projected to be. Bill Belichick knows it. 

So here’s the brutal reality for Carolina blue. The bye week is a crossroads. Either the team finds its backbone now, or Belichick’s Tar Heels could be staring down another familiar season of underperformance, early exits, and heartbreak in Chapel Hill.