Week 5 brought a different vibe. A $331 million college football team finally put it all together, crushing Arizona and flexing a 5-0 start. It wasn’t just another checkmark in the win column; it was the kind of performance that turns heads. But for Matt Campbell’s program, the road here hasn’t exactly screamed dominance. Narrow escapes against Arkansas State, Kansas State, and even rival Iowa left plenty of doubters circling. Now, despite a 25-point blowout, the polls barely blinked. So, the takeaway? Reputation doesn’t move on close calls or single statements. But if this group wants respect, they’ll have to keep stacking emphatic wins. And the next game could be a game-changer.

Well, Saturday sets the stage for that Big 12 showdown. Iowa State hits the road to face Cincinnati in a game that feels bigger than the record books. The Cyclones are unbeaten, fresh off a 39-14 statement win over Arizona. It was their cleanest performance yet, and it came as a 6.5-point favorite. On the other side, the Bearcats sit at 3-1 after edging Kansas 37-34 in a thriller. But here’s the twist: injuries on defense could test Iowa State’s depth in Week 6. And it’s not just the injuries; other factors hang over their conference title dream.

On the October 2 episode of the Cover 3 podcast, Tom Fornelli, Bud Elliot, Danny Canel, and Chip Patterson dove into the big matchup: Iowa State vs. Cincinnati. The debate heated up when Fornelli raised the question: who has the better shot to come out on top? “Cincinnati is favored in the game,” he noted. The spread backs that up, with the Bearcats as a -1.5-point favorite and Iowa State listed as a 1.5-point underdog. But Fornelli wasn’t buying it. “Iowa State’s 5-0, 2-0 in conference play,” he said. “They’re the second-highest rated team in the Big 12. This is the kind of game where I look at Cincinnati, and I just don’t think the Bearcats are the team that can win the Big 12.” So, does Iowa State have a chance?

“I think Iowa State can,” Fornelli said. “But this is the kind of game that could, with the injuries, completely tank their chances.” The Cyclones will be without 12 players. On top of that, 5 others are listed as questionable, and another is probable. Now, facing Cincinnati’s 16th-ranked scoring offense won’t be easy. And QB Brendan Sorsby‘s attack adds another layer of challenge. Now, with so many key players out or limited, Iowa State has a steep hill to climb. But what would a loss to the Bearcats mean for them?

Fornelli didn’t sugarcoat it. “This is the kind of loss that sticks on your resume,” he said. “It’s just… a huge game for the Cyclones.” But with so many injuries, the road test gets even tougher. “If they can survive this one and pull out a win,” added Fornelli, “that puts them in a strong position.” Still, the stakes are high. A loss could be devastating, leaving the team reeling at a critical point in the season. And considering the situation, it would sting even more. Now, while the conference title dream is still alive, what are Iowa State’s CFP chances?

Iowa State’s College Football Playoff hopes

Even with a few rough games early, Iowa State is trending up. Surely, Week 5 offered a statement win, showing they can compete at a high level. But now, the focus is on pushing closer to a conference title. To cap it off, after that win, The Athletic nudged the Cyclones’ CFB Playoff chances up by just four percent.

That puts them at a 35 percent shot, but still not the recognition an undefeated team might expect. Meanwhile, Texas Tech leads the Big 12 with a 47 percent CFP chance, thanks in part to their win over Utah. So, a victory might finalize the Cyclones’ deal?

Week 6 presents a big test for Iowa State as they head to Cincinnati as a slight underdog. Now, a win here could boost their resume and CFP credibility, but a stumble could stall momentum fast. Let’s see what transpires.