Nebraska has been average at best since Matt Rhule became head coach. But things are set to change as he prepares for his fourth season, with bigger expectations placed on him. Rhule has now emerged as the top candidate to win College Football Coach of the Year in the coming season, based on a prediction.

Per Kalshi Football, the Cornhuskers’ head coach is the early favorite to win the College Football Coach of the Year Award in the 2026 season. Though the prediction is still on, Rhule took the early lead with an 11% chance of winning the award.

Matt Rhule joined the Cornhuskers after the 2022 season, when the program finished with a 4-8 regular-season record. They had fired head coach Scott Frost after a 1-2 record in his first three games. Frost was replaced by interim coach Mickey Joseph, who posted a 3-6 record, leaving the team at 4-8, one win more than the previous season.

Rhule’s assignment was clear upon his hire: to turn the tide around in Lincoln. So far, the program has only moved from poor to average, with back-to-back 7-6 seasons in 2024 and 2025. These are after an unimpressive debut season with a 5-7 record.

Though Nebraska has witnessed some progress with him, albeit a slow one, major challenges persist. The program has yet to make a College Football Playoff appearance since its inception in 2014. In fact, they have not appeared in a major bowl game since the 2001 season, when they lost to Miami in the 2002 Rose Bowl game. Without sentiments, what he has done up until this point does not seem good enough to earn him even the Big Ten conference Coach of the Year.

However, Rhule cannot be ruled out completely. He has shown signs of his capabilities in the past that could take the Cornhuskers to the next level if everything goes well. In his final season with the Baylor Bears before joining the Carolina Panthers in the NFL, Rhule finished with an 11-1 regular-season record after going unbeaten in their first nine games. Notably, he won the Big 12 Coach of the Year Award.

It was a massive improvement for him from his 1-11 debut season in 2017 to 11-1 two seasons later. Sadly, they lost the Big 12 Championship to the Oklahoma Sooners and lost to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

Notwithstanding, Rhule has the potential, as he has shown before. But those brilliant seasons are too rare to earn him such a significant prediction. Beyond his ability, such predictions are usually based on consistency. And should consistency be the yardstick for Rhule, who has a 19-19 record in Lincoln, another average season would have been predicted for him.

Kalshi Football ranks other CFB coaches in Coach of the Year prediction

Kalshi football ranked a few other college football coaches behind Rhule, who remains ahead in the ongoing prediction for CFB Coach of the Year. The rankings are bound to change, as the predictions are still ongoing. But so far, a lot of other unexpected names are atop the list.

Right behind Rhule is Colorado Buffaloes’ Deion Sanders, with 9%. Following Sanders are Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman and North Carolina’s Bill Belichick, who both have a 7% chance of winning the award. UCLA’s Bob Chesney, Penn State’s Matt Campbell, and Ole Miss Rebels’ Pete Golding all come next, with a 6% chance.

The prediction company Kalshi is a financial trading platform that also operates as a federally regulated prediction market. While it has been under scrutiny for being similar to sports betting, the company trades contracts from user to user, as winnings are transferred from one party to another. Acting more like a broker, the company does not profit from wins; it only earns profits from service and transaction fees.