Back in December, analysts and fans were side-eyeing Lincoln Riley as USC had just wrapped a 7-6 season. That even had Paul Finebaum asking why the Trojans were still writing him checks. “What has he done? He had the one season with Caleb Williams. Last year, I thought that was a disaster, but then again, I forgot about this season.” After signing a $110 million golden ticket and producing Heisman QBs, Riley was supposed to be LA’s savior. Instead, Trojan fans got a bowl trip to Vegas and a lot of what-ifs. But now, Urban Meyer is flipping the narrative for them.

When Riley first touched down in Cali, the hype was so loud you could hear it from Norman. Caleb Williams turned into a Heisman cheat code, USC went 11-3, and people were whispering natty talk like it was a done deal. But since then? Flatline. The 2023 and 2024 seasons were a mess—defense was practically nonexistent, and Riley started catching stray from all sides.

Enter Urban Meyer. On June 10, Meyer appeared on The Herd with Colin Cowherd and, for the first time, expressed a mix of love and doubt. Cowherd asked, “I saw the over/under on USC, 7.5 games, and I think that’s accurate. Their best player is a safety. I think they’re very, very young, an 8-win team. At some point, when’s the hammer come down?”

“I’ve always looked at USC as one that I equate to Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, and Florida,” Meyer said. “I’ve always looked at USC as one of the top five jobs in America. So I’ve got a lot of respect for Lincoln Riley, and I promised myself I would never call for jobs—because I’m not going to do that.”

But then he hit with the dagger: “When seven or eight wins is acceptable at USC, that’s when I don’t know. I don’t agree with that.”

Urban Meyer wasn’t just blowing smoke. He pointed to USC’s recruiting hot streak as the flicker of hope. With the No. 1 recruiting class for 2026 already stacking blue chips like a blackjack table, Meyer added, “I think they’re going to have a great year, and I think we’re not going to have to have this conversation. But go 8-5 at Ohio State and see what happens.”

Urban Meyer’s logic tracks. Because let’s be real—USC didn’t fork over $110M for Riley to hit the over on 7.5 wins. They want at least one natty out of Lincoln Riley. That $88M buyout? It’s looking more like a life sentence unless Riley walks away himself. Which he won’t. And while FanDuel’s got USC teetering at -118 odds to win over 7.5 games in 2025, that’s barely enough to scare a Big Ten punter.

Lincoln Riley’s triple recruiting jackpot

USC hosted its first official visit weekend of the offseason and turned it into a flex-a-thon. First came the commitment from four-star cornerback Peyton Dyer out of Georgia. He decommitted from South Carolina after a spring visit to LA and shut it down Sunday, picking USC over Georgia and Penn State. Huge.

Then came linebacker Talanoa Ili—a four-star beast out of Hawaii who’s already made three SoCal trips this year. He used to ball out at Orange Lutheran before heading back to the islands, but he’s got nothing but love for LA. He’s now down to USC and UCLA and plans to commit on June 15. Right now, it’s feeling like USC’s game to lose.

DeSoto’s four-star Ethan “Boobie” Feaster and Panther Creek’s four-star Jalen Lott, both top uncommitted prospects, visited campus this past weekend. USC made a strong impression on these two top Texas receivers, now looking like serious contenders to land at least one.

And it doesn’t stop there. Riley didn’t just roll out the red carpet for new blood—he doubled down on the five-stars already in the bag. Keenyi Pepe, the mammoth OT from IMG Academy, was back on campus. Simote Katoanga, a local EDGE rusher, and defensive lineman Tomuhini Topui out of Mater Dei were all in town. The visit weekend wasn’t just a party—it was a family cookout.

They call it “Poly U” for a reason. From Troy Polamalu to Talanoa Hufanga, USC’s Polynesian pipeline is real. And Riley’s leaning into it hard for 2026. This class is thick with Polynesian talent, and the culture around Heritage Hall is matching the vibe.

Bottom line? While critics are counting down Riley’s downfall, he might be quietly loading the clip. Urban Meyer sees the vision—but he also sees the clock. USC’s got the pieces. Now Riley’s got to cook. Because if 2025 looks anything like last year, even that $88M gate won’t save him from the smoke.