You know what Lincoln Riley’s been cooking this offseason? A No. 1 class in the nation in 2026. Blue chips all over the board with a pair of 5-stars and 12 4-stars out of 27 commits. And it’s looking like USC is finally locking up their own backyard. But just when you think the Trojans have this thing in control, Ryan Day and Ohio State swoop in to steal a couple of top in-state talents right under Riley’s nose. Now, as the recruitment heats up for another California talent—Folsom HS standout QB Ryder Lyons—the question is if they can retain him.

A highly coveted prospect, Ryder Lyons is a 5-star. Gatorade Player of the Year. No. 10 player in the nation. No. 4 QB in the 2026 class. And yeah, the top overall talent in the state of California. So where’s he headed? USC insider Scott Schrader joined Josh Newberg in a new episode on On3 Recruits on May 4 to drop a fresh recruiting intel. And thank goodness, it’s still hot for Lincoln Riley and co. “I do think that USC is in a really strong spot for him as they have been for quite a while,” he said. “He’s another guy that visited probably five or six times just this year… I don’t think he’s going to go past July with his recruitment.” The leaning is still there because it’s not like USC hasn’t done their part. 

Lincoln Riley got Ryder Lyons on campus five times already. The upcoming official visit on June 20 will mark his sixth visit to Los Angeles, thanks to a familiar face in his older brother, Walker Lyons. Also, he’s smitten with the Trojans HC. “Coach Riley: three first picks in the NFL draft, three Heismans winners, it’s very familiar, my brother goes there, they’ve been recruiting me for a while,” Ryder told On3. “So I don’t think there’s any quarterback coach in the country, to be honest. Coach Riley knows what he’s doing.” 

Pete Nakos even logged a prediction that the 6’2, 205-pound QB would choose USC over Oregon, another hunter. But despite this positive outlook, don’t think that Lincoln Riley is sleeping easy. You know how he wanted to fix last year’s problem? 13 different states represented. Well, this year they brought in 12 players from the state of California, per 247Sports’ Cooper Petagna, the most ever under him. It’s looking like a culture shift, but he’s already nursing a couple of heartbreaks dealt by the Buckeyes. 

Lincoln Riley suffers a recruiting blow from Ohio State

This is the second time Ryan Day has stolen top talent from the state of California. On Sunday, Ohio State landed 4-star WR Kayden Dixon-Wyatt out of Mater Dei. The No. 6 WR in the 2026 class chose the Buckeyes over USC and Oregon. And this is a very big win for OSU because they already have the commitment of his HS teammate, another 5-star WR, Chris Henry Jr. That’s a No. 2 and No. 10 player in the state of California gone to the Midwest. 

And let’s be real. Why wouldn’t a receiver choose to land in Columbus? Brian Hartline’s products are elite. Talk about Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and Jeremiah Smith, among others. An unclogged pipeline to the NFL. This blueprint surely attracted Dixon-Wyatt and Henry Jr. Now, with the latest commitment, Ohio State moves up to No. 3 from No. 6 in the national rankings. And who knows, Ryan Day could topple USC’s rankings if they manage to lock in the commitment of another pursuit—5-star OT Jackson Cantwell, who will drop his decision on May 13. 

For now, Lincoln Riley and the Trojans might feel good about Ryder Lyons. But with Ryan Day making moves like that, it’s a reminder that the West Coast isn’t locked down yet.