The 16-ranked Vanderbilt football team is coming to Tuscaloosa on Saturday with a perfect 5-0 record and every intention of running it back after last year’s matchup. The No. 10-ranked Alabama football team is waiting with a plan to settle the score for what Vandy did to them last season…

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has already made up his mind about Vandy: “I wasn’t playing, but I felt what it was like last year,” Simpson said in the presser. “The mentality in the locker room is we remember what happened and we’re not making the same mistake again. They’re not the same team, and neither are we. This is a top-25 matchup with College GameDay here—it could be one of the biggest games of the year. We’re coming in with a chip on our shoulder. It’s Alabama vs. the world.” The good news is Alabama is playing in Tuscaloosa. And the last time Vanderbilt beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa was back in 1984. But Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea is not concerned about the past, but he has everything sorted out for this game.

On September 30, Vanderbilt HC Clark Lea hopped onto the podium before hitting Tuscaloosa for their toughest challenge of the season. The interviewer threw the question about Vanderbilt’s not winning at Tuscaloosa since 1984: “How long it’s been since, I know you know the history with Vanderbilt and Tuscaloosa, and how long it’s been since you guys have won there?”

Coach Lea clearly didn’t give much thought to what happened a century ago: “I don’t know that history. I don’t. Usually, that’s me and Laura talking after the game and saying, ‘Hey, you know, some of these have been like, you know, whatever it was 1918 when we scored 70, whatever points.’ And my response to that is, like, what in the world were they doing in 1918 to be able to score that many points, that tempo offense and spread. I mean, my God, so we just don’t, we don’t pay a lot of attention to that. We’re creating our own history here.” Back in 1906, Vanderbilt put up serious numbers on Alabama and handed them the worst defeat in program history. Vanderbilt schooled Alabama in a 78-0 matchup. Alabama has come a long way since then.

But the last time they faced Vanderbilt, they suffered their first loss under Kalen DeBoer’s regime. Vanderbilt upset No. 1 Alabama 40-35 in Nashville, Tennessee. This was Vanderbilt’s first win against a top-5 team and their first against Alabama since 1984. Clark Lea sees only what’s in front of him and doesn’t live in past success: “We’re creating our own history here. That’s how we see it, and that really is the spirit of this group. And I mean, even in the way we… This is Team Five, you know, it’s not because the history of this program is important, right? I’m a part of the history of this program, but there was an intentional, purposeful break to say what has happened before has no bearing on what is to come.”

Clark Lea and Vanderbilt are entering Tuscaloosa with their best start (5-0) to a season since 2008. The Commodores are fresh off back-to-back dominant offensive performances, scoring 70 points against Georgia State and 55 points against Utah. Diego Pavia has been the soul of Vandy for the past two seasons, and this year he has taken his game to another level.

He has completed over 74% of his passes for 1,211 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just 3 picks so far. Vanderbilt’s offense is averaging 242 yards per game. And rushing game? Too smooth. 294 yards on 48 carries (6.1 yards per rush) and 2 touchdowns. And their defense is on the same level as their offense. Vanderbilt’s defense is ranked 21st nationally in yards allowed per game.

Alabama vs Vanderbilt odds

Most experts see Alabama as the favorite, but they don’t all agree on how the game will play out. The betting line has Alabama favored by around 10 points, and a lot of computer models think they can cover that spread. For example, SportsLine’s simulations give Alabama about a 58% chance to win by more than 10. Yahoo’s model is close,showing about 59%.

Still, not everyone is sold on Alabama running away with it. Some analysts point out that Vanderbilt has been hot this season, and they’ve been efficient on both sides of the ball first time in a long time. Covers analysts like the value in Vanderbilt +10.5, meaning they expect the Commodores to at least keep it close. They argue Alabama’s “revenge factor” from last year’s upset might already be built into the line, so the Tide might not be as easy a bet as it looks.

OddsShark leans the other way, reminding people of Alabama’s dominance in the series. Meanwhile, other sites like PicksAndParlays predict a higher-scoring Alabama win, something like 38–28.