It’s the biggest game of the year for Alabama football: the Iron Bowl against Auburn. The stakes couldn’t be any higher for the Kalen DeBoer team, especially after missing the playoffs in the debut season. Basically, if they don’t win today, their dreams of a national title will be over. It’s truly “win or go home” for the Crimson Tide.

Miami and Utah’s wins will end Alabama’s already slim chances after the Iron Bowl loss. Those upsets were part of ESPN’s predicted 2% scenario that could have aided Alabama’s playoff hopes. With that not happening, Alabama’s chances of making it to the playoffs are next to impossible.

Even ESPN gives them a 6% chance to make it to the playoffs after the Iron Bowl loss, which means there’s a 94% chance that they will miss out on the playoffs. Entering finals being a three-loss team is pretty rare, but exceptions happen, like last season’s Clemson Tigers. With that let’s know about their SEC title chances.

What Does an Alabama Win Mean for the SEC Championship Race?

After losing to Oklahoma, everyone thought Alabama’s SEC title and playoff chances were razor-thin. But that is not the case, as their win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl will straight up secure them a spot in the SEC championship game, which can push their playoff fate. And they will face Georgia, as after the Aggies’ loss to Texas, they have clinched their fifth straight SEC title game appearance.

But if Alabama loses the Iron Bowl, Georgia will face Ole Miss in the SEC title game after their win against Mississippi State, which ends Bama’s playoff hopes, too. An Iron Bowl win is Bama’s only chance to make it to the SEC title game, which they haven’t entered since 2023. After winning nine straight title games before their last loss to Florida back in 2008.

Now, here comes the big question: How will Alabama’s CFP rankings be affected after losing to Auburn?

How Would Alabama Be Affected in the College Football Playoff Rankings?

Losing the Iron Bowl means finishing the regular season with a 9-3 record. Which hurts Kalen DeBoer’s team’s chances in front of one- or two-loss teams. Now that Alabama is sitting at the No. 10 spot in playoff rankings, they are pretty close to making it in after the win, but one loss can put them straight out of the top 12 list.

But if Alabama wins tonight, they’re straight away in the College Football Playoff. Other teams who are likely to join them are Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, the ACC champion, the Group of Five champion, and Texas Tech. Now, this list pretty much fills up the remaining spot. That means Bama’s win makes the playoff picture clearer.

With all of them in Notre Dame, Miami’s position sits on thin ice. As reporter Zach Gelb explains their situation.

“That would leave 1 spot for the Notre Dame/Miami debate. But if Texas Tech loses the Big 12 championship, I still think Texas Tech is in and then both Notre Dame/Miami would be out,” Gelb said.

With the playoff picture getting clearer, where does Auburn stand after the loss?

What Happens to Auburn’s Season If They Lose to Alabama?

Auburn might not have playoff hopes this season, but after their loss against Alabama, they will also lose their only chance to secure bowl eligibility this season. As they now sit 5-6 on record and need one game to get in. Something that happened last year, too: after their 28-14 loss against Alabama, they ended up with a 5-7 record in the regular season.

Now, with that loss against Alabama, which gives them a major rivalry loss, they will take a major hit to team morale and lose momentum that could have helped with recruiting next season. The team has already fired Hugh Freeze, and losing a rivalry game will just add another layer of disappointment to it.