Miami stands at a critical juncture as its playoff hopes are on the line in Week 14. The No. 12 Hurricanes are currently making an easy day out of Pitt. With a win, Mario Cristobal’s team will improve their record to 10-2, but that may not be enough to guarantee them a look into the postseason.

If Miami beats Pitt but misses out on the ACC Championship Game, their odds of making the College Football Playoff hang steady at around 20%. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but it shows just how tight the competition is this season. Interestingly, if they enter the ACC Championship but lose there, their playoff odds drop to a mere 5%. So, ironically, losing the ACC title game could hurt their playoff chances more than not participating at all.

Miami’s chances of making the ACC championship

Miami sits tied for fifth in the ACC at 5–2, just behind Virginia, SMU, and Pitt, who are all at 6–1. Entering Week 14, their chances are razor-thin. PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter puts Miami’s odds at just 0.01% to snag one of the two spots at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers are their last hurdle to cross to keep the dreams alive. But beating Pitt alone isn’t enough for the Canes to punch their ticket.

Beyond that, Miami needs a perfect storm. They need losses from Virginia, Duke, and SMU in their final games. Plus, an NC State win over North Carolina to tip the tiebreakers in their favor. The ACC race has been wild and unpredictable this year, so while it looks bleak, chaos could still play into Miami’s hands.

How would Miami be affected in the college football playoff rankings?

Miami sits at No. 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings right now, but many believe the Hurricanes deserve a bump to No. 9, leapfrogging Notre Dame. The weird part? Miami already beat Notre Dame head-to-head in the season opener. So why is Miami ranked lower? The selection committee looks at more than just one game. While Miami handed Notre Dame a loss early in the year, Notre Dame’s overall body of work has kept them ahead in the eyes of the committee. If the committee ranked Miami higher, such as at No. 9, it would make sense based on their on-field results and their standing in the ACC.

So keeping this in mind, the Hurricanes chances of making the playoffs remain a long shot. Plus, if the Hurricanes didn’t make the ACC title game, their only shot was grabbing an at-large bid. To pull that off, they needed to climb into the top 10 of the final CFP rankings. That meant hoping that a few teams ahead of them, such as Oklahoma, Alabama, BYU, and Notre Dame, would lose their final games. The Irish seat at the table is somewhat less solid than others. That means, if Notre Dame loses to Stanford, Miami may have a clear path ahead.

What happens to Pittsburgh’s season if they lose to Miami?

Pitt came into the game tied for the best ACC record at 6–1 with Virginia and SMU. Losing to Miami handed them their second conference loss. That in  turn knocks them out of the race for the top spot and ends their shot at the ACC Championship game. Still, the Panthers sit at 8–4 overall, which easily makes them bowl-eligible. They’ll get a bowl invite, but it’ll probably be a lower-tier one compared to what they could’ve earned by reaching the ACC title game or sneaking into the CFP.