Last year, 17 Division 1 (FBS) head coaches were fired, either during the season or immediately into the postseason. Heading into the 2026 season, some coaches will start their campaign with confidence. For others, it is a lifeline that will determine whether they keep or lose their jobs. And despite their disappointing returns in the 2025 season, Dabo Swinney will not be on the hot seat, at least not in the eyes of CFB analyst Josh Pate.

“Dabo Swinney is not on this list for me,” Josh Pate said about Dabo Swinney being on a hot seat on the June 14 episode of his show. “And there was a lot of talk around the office today. ‘Shouldn’t Dabo be on this list?’ Well, not to me. I think that’s its own universe of a conversation. Dabo Swinney being on the hot seat would be insane to me. Now, they went 7-6 last year, and if they go 7-6 or worse this year, of course, the conversation would be toxic. Yes, absolutely, it would be. And of course, there would be a lot of people calling for his job.

“And then, you’d have Dabo, who would walk to the podium every week, and he would totally filibuster his press conference, and he would essentially read his Wikipedia bio, and he’d be right.”

Swinney didn’t build two national titles and nine ACC championships just to face hot-seat talk. Once he was appointed, he did not take long to prove his naysayers wrong. During his 17-year tenure at Clemson, he has compiled a 187-53 record. Moreover, Swinney signed a 10-year, $115 million contract extension in 2022 that runs through 2031. He is in for the long haul. However, Clemson’s recent decline contradicts Swinney’s elite resume. A 9-4 record in 2023 marked a sharp drop from Swinney’s 12-year streak of 10+ wins.

And even when the Tigers bounced back the following season with a 10-4 record and an ACC championship, there was a huge decline in 2025. Clemson’s displays have been characterized by a concerning inconsistency, and they no longer look like the program that snatched two national championships away from Nick Saban within three years.

Playing at their worst since 2010, the offense in 2025 was ranked 60th in total offense, 117th in rushing yards/game, and 72nd in scoring offense. This was in stark contrast to the hype heading into the season. PFF had ranked Clemson’s offense No. 1 in the nation on the basis of its returning production.

This has placed several analysts in doubt regarding Clemson’s fate in 2026. Athlon Sports‘ Steve Lassan ranked Clemson as low as fourth in his ACC predictions, behind Miami, SMU, and Louisville. The last time Swinney saw such discouraging opinions about him must have been the initial months of his transition from interim coach to head coach.

But from being repulsive towards the transfer portal, Swinney has been more receptive, as he welcomed 10 transfers in January. Per On3, the program’s 2026 recruiting class was ranked No. 21 in the nation and fourth in the ACC. With the reinforcements, Swinney and the Tigers are ready for a much-improved 2026 season.

CFB coaches on the hot seat, as per Josh Pate

While Pate cleared Swinney off the hot seat, he placed other coaches in the seat. To him, a turbulent 2026 season would induce a coaching change in USC and FSU, as both programs would be expecting nothing less than a College Football Playoff appearance.

“I just look at it and say, ‘whatever happens this year, if Lincoln Riley, if it goes wrong for him at USC, I could easily see them pulling the trigger and firing him. I could easily see FSU firing Mike Norvell,” Pate added.

Riley finished 11-3 in his 2022 debut, his best season to date. Despite recording winning seasons in each of his four seasons, he has yet to make a CFP appearance, which would be the program’s target in 2026.

Norvell’s 5-7 finish in 2025 exhausted the goodwill from back-to-back 10+ win seasons (2022–23) and an undefeated regular season in 2023. As such, he needs more than a winning season to retain his job; he must compensate FSU for showing faith in him even after four losing seasons in six years. South Carolina’s Shane Beamer, Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell, and Baylor’s Dave Aranda are other coaches on the hot seat.