Week 10 of the college football season is in the books, and man, was it a good one. We had a Top-25 matchup after a Top-25 matchup all day long on Saturday, and it has completely shaken up the College Football Playoff race.

Ten weeks into the season, we have a pretty good idea of who is in contention for the playoffs, but we also have a pretty good idea of which coaches could get themselves fired here soon. A lot of programs have really disappointed this season, so there are some big names on the coaching hot seat.

Here are some coaches who could be axed by the end of the year, plus our updated CFP projection.

CFB Head Coaching Hot Seat

Deion Sanders: Deion Sanders has done a lot for Colorado football. They were a dumpster fire when he arrived, and in year two he won nine games and completely revitalized the fanbase, but the last two years have not been great. The Buffaloes are a combined 6-15 over the past two seasons and have just two conference wins in 15 Big 12 games despite landing some big-time recruits. It would be hard to fire Sanders, because he brings so much money in for the program, but at some point wins have to matter, right?

Greg Schiano: Greg Schiano bought himself some time with two seven-win seasons in 2023 and 2024, but the last two years have been a disaster. The Scarlet Knights went 5-7 with two Big 10 wins last season, and this year they’ve started 2-7 with a 1-5 conference record. I know Schiano did a lot for the program back in the early 2000s, but round two at Rutgers hasn’t gone nearly as well, so it seems like it’s time for them to make a change at head coach, unless they’ve just accepted mediocrity.

Sonny Dykes: Sonny Dykes brought TCU to new heights in 2022, bringing them to the national championship game, where they were blown out by Georgia. Despite the loss, it felt like a new era of TCU football was right around the corner, but the Horned Frogs haven’t won double-digit games since 2022, and are currently 4-5 with a 2-4 Big 12 record. They have just three FBS wins this season, and with Utah and Texas Tech still on the schedule, they could very well finish 5-7 or worse this year.

Matt Rhule: Matt Rhule has slowly been turning Nebraska around, and it felt like 2026 was finally the year he made a big leap. He won five games in 2023, seven games in 2024 and 2025, and then got off to a 5-0 start in 2026, but the Cornhuskers have now dropped four straight games to Indiana, Oregon, Washington and Illinois, and with Rutgers, Ohio State and Iowa left to play, there’s a good chance they’re 6-6 after a flawless start through five games. Four years should be enough time to turn a program around, so after another disappointing season, Rhule could be on his way out.

Brent Venables: Brent Venables has been one of the most inconsistent coaches in CFB the past few years. In year two, he won 10 games and finished 15th in the rankings, then followed it up with a six-win season. Then, in 2025, the Sooners won 10 games again, finishing 13th in the rankings, but have followed it up with a 5-4 record in 2026. The Sooners still have to play Ole Miss and Missouri this season, so there’s a good chance they follow a double-digit-win season with six wins once again. At Oklahoma, that level of inconsistency isn’t acceptable, so they could look to move on.

Teams Eliminated From the CFP

We’re at the point of the season where most teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention. If you’re a Group of Six Team and lost more than one game, you’re out of the running. If you’re a Big 12 or ACC team and have more than two losses, you’re out of the running. That is true for most Big 10 and SEC schools as well, but with the amount of chaos we’ve seen this year, it seems likely that at least one three-loss team will get in, and it’ll likely be from the SEC.

Here’s every team from each power conference that is already eliminated from CFP contention, as well as some notable G6 schools.

SEC: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Florida, Auburn, Oklahoma

The SEC has four teams: Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU, and Missouri, who already have three losses. I find it highly unlikely that South Carolina or Missouri get in with three losses, but I do think there’s a world where LSU or Ole Miss can sneak in. I’m not counting out SC or Missouri just yet, though.

Big 10: Rutgers, Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue, Washington, Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin

Northwestern, Illinois, and Wisconsin all have three losses, but considering their resumes are quite weak and, quite frankly, their brand isn’t that big, they won’t get in. I do think a three-loss Ohio State and Oregon still have a shot if they run the table, which is why they’re not included.

Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Colorado, TCU, Cincinnati, Iowa State, West Virginia, UCF, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Baylor

I don’t see Arizona or Houston getting in as an at-large, but they’re still in the running for the Big 12 championship with two conference losses, so they can’t be ruled out just yet. It does feel like the Big 12 is heading towards being a two-bid league with Utah almost locked into a spot, and BYU and Texas Tech fighting for the other.

ACC: Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Cal, Boston College, NC State, Virginia, Stanford, Florida State, UNC, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Clemson

The ACC is going to be a one-bid league unless someone other than Miami ends up winning the ACC Championship. Outside of the Hurricanes, Wake Forest is the only other team with a real shot at an at-large spot, but I couldn’t rule out Duke, SMU, or Louisville, because they all still have a chance at winning the ACC. But they all face an uphill battle.

Group of 6: Memphis, North Texas, Oregon State, North Dakota State

It’s hard to eliminate G6 teams because anything can happen and there’s such a razor-thin margin for error, but right now it feels like Boise State and New Mexico are the main contenders for the G6 spot. But considering just one loss could knock them out, anything can happen down the stretch. But I do think it’ll be one of those two teams.

College Football Playoff Projection

This isn’t a projection of what would happen if the season ended today. Based on the results we’ve had thus far, here’s how I think the CFP will end up looking by the end of the season.

1. Georgia

The Georgia Bulldogs have a clear path to being the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP. All they have to do is win, and they should be able to do that. They potentially have two ranked games against Missouri and South Carolina left on their schedule, but they should be able to win those pretty easily before finishing the year against a bad Georgia Tech squad. They’ll be in the SEC Championship, and if they win it, they’ll be the top seed.

2. Utah

Utah could win out and take the Big 12 crown, and they still wouldn’t top Georgia. That’s just the nature of the CFP loving the SEC, but I don’t think the Utes would be too mad with the two-seed. They should be able to cruise to a round one bye.

3. Indiana

Is Indiana the third-best team in the country? No, but who else is going to win the Big 10? Ohio State has been awful without Julian Sayin and there is nobody else in the conference that I’m really worried about. UCLA is good, but they haven’t been tested yet, and I think they’d get gobbled up by this defense in the Big 10 title game. They will be 12-1 with a Big 10 title, which will unfortunately earn them a first-round bye. They don’t deserve it and will be knocked out early.

4. Miami

Miami suffered their first loss of the season this past weekend, but the CFP won’t punish them too hard. They should still be a top-five or top-six team at worst, and with their schedule, they can easily win out and win the ACC. If they finish 12-1 with the ACC crown while it’s likely that at least one team above them drops another game, they should earn a top-four seed.

5. Alabama

Alabama looked great this past weekend against LSU, and when you look at their remaining schedule, it looks like a cakewalk. They get Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, and Auburn before likely playing in the SEC Championship game. I do think they would lose to Georgia in Atlanta, which is why they just miss out on a top-four seed. A 10-2 Bama squad gets a first-round bye, so the SEC Championship Game could actually hurt them if they don’t win it.

6. Tennessee

Tennessee looked really, really good against Kentucky this past week, and their schedule to end the year isn’t too hard. They have to host LSU, who hasn’t won a big game but has been pretty competitive against good teams; but outside of that, all they have to do is beat Texas A&M and Vandy. They should win out and could possibly get into the SEC Championship Game.

7. Notre Dame

The CFP committee has already shown that they don’t respect Notre Dame’s schedule, and even with a win over top-ranked Miami, I don’t see them shooting up the board a whole lot. Miami was missing its top player and Heisman candidate, so I think the Irish end up in the 6-8 range and stay there for the rest of the year with no more meaningful games on their schedule.

8. UCLA

UCLA has had an incredible season, but they won’t really be tested until the final week of the season when they host USC, and even then I don’t think that’s much of a test. They’ll make the Big 10 title game and likely lose to Indiana, but even at 12-1, I don’t see the committee respecting them enough to put them over a two-loss Bama or Tennessee, who faced a gauntlet this year.

9. Wake Forest

Wake Forest is one of the teams to watch down the stretch. They’re 8-1, but still have to go to SMU and host Duke, which are not easy matchups. If they win both of those, they should be right inside the top-10 and in the ACC title game. If they’re sitting at No. 8 or No. 9 and lose to Miami, they should get in, but if they’re only No. 10 or No. 11, they could be in some trouble with a loss. They might have to win the ACC title game.

10. BYU

BYU has a bad loss to UCF, but they played Utah well and should still be inside the top-12 when the CFP rankings come out this week, and this loss could be a blessing in disguise. If the Cougars win out, they would be 10-2 with a win over Notre Dame on their resume, and they might not have to play in the Big 12 championship, where they could pick up a third loss. If Texas Tech keeps winning, they’d be in it with Utah, and the Cougars could sit at home and sneak in as the 10 or 11-seed.

11. Texas

This 11-seed is going to come down to a three-loss SEC team, so the question is, will it be Texas, LSU, or Ole Miss? I do think LSU gets the win over Texas this weekend, but they lose to Tennessee to drop to four losses. Meanwhile, Ole Miss should win out and be at 9-3 with Texas, but the Longhorns got the head-to-head win over the Rebels earlier this year and get the final at-large spot over Ole Miss.

12. Boise State

Boise State is the leader in the clubhouse for the G6 spot, and if they win out, which they should be able to do, they should get in. New Mexico is a threat, but I think the final spot ultimately goes to Boise.