NBA executives and scouts will be intrigued if the NCAA men’s basketball tournament will produce “one shining moment.” Maybe more.

But will any performances actually affect a player’s draft stock? Not so much for the lottery-bound prospects. Maybe so for those trying to sneak into the draft.

That’s because most NBA talent evaluators consider other variables to be more important, including a prospect’s regular-season play, his medical reports, his pre-draft interviews, and his pre-draft workouts. With the NCAA Tournament starting on Thursday, most NBA front offices have a clear sense of which prospects are most likely to end up as lottery picks.

The order can vary, especially depending on how the NBA Draft lottery plays out on May 10. But an NBA executive and two NBA scouts spoke to EssentiallySports and shared their latest snapshot on this year’s top prospects.

Editor’s note: The following one-on-one interviews were conducted separately. They were all granted anonymity since they’re not authorized to talk publicly about college prospects.

Which NCAA prospect impresses you the most so far?

NBA executive #1: “The top three are the top three, in any order. It’s probably going to be AJ Dybantsa [BYU] and Darryn Peterson [Kansas] at No. 1 or 2. But Cameron Boozer [Duke] has put himself in that conversation. He should be considered. Statistically, he’s the best college basketball player. He’s that dominant. The ceiling is much higher for Peterson and Dybantsa than Boozer. How much will he get better? Sure, he’s going to get better. But the upside of Peterson and Dybantsa are much higher. That’s probably why Boozer will end up at No. 3. But from a talent perspective, he’s as good as those two guys.”

Scout #1: “It’s got to be Cameron Boozer. He’s been as consistent as anyone has been. He’s also making teammates better. He’s playing to win, both offensively and defensively. He has the ability to step up and shift into another gear. He also makes an impact on the defensive end. He’s not just a one-way player. He’s a two-way player. He plays within the system. He plays in the culture. He has all the things that you’d want in an NBA player and on a college team. When you look at some of the other top prospects like Dybantsa and Peterson, they have incredible ability with knowing how to control the ball. They step up when they have the green light. Darius Acuff Jr. [Arkansas] has also been phenomenal. The SEC is the toughest conference around and has the most depth. Those are the top guys.”

Scout #2: “With Dybantsa, Peterson, and Boozer, I don’t think you can go wrong with any of those guys. Boozer surprised me the most. I saw him last summer in an AAU tournament. He was awesome. Depending on a team’s need, if you needed someone like him, I could see him going one. I don’t think people would think you’re crazy. He’s pretty damn good. He’s better than what I thought he would be. He’s able to impose his will on the game. He’s super competitive. His shot is going to improve. He’s not very athletic. But he gets a lot of things done. He’s a good player. As a freshman, I thought his athleticism would be an issue. But he has proven that he knows how to win.”

How would you compare Peterson and Dybantsa?

NBA executive #1: “With Peterson, it’s his shooting and his ability to score. His size at 6’6” makes him a legitimate two-guard with size. Everybody is looking for that. It’s his elite shooting and shotmaking. That’s what separates him. He’s that good. He’s probably the best in the draft. But Dybantsa is the best athlete. The upside with him is something that everybody wants to see. The knock on him is his 3-point shooting [34%]. The numbers validate that. But he has size, agility, and athleticism. He can play both ends of the floor. Everybody is looking for a two-way wing. He checks every box. The upside is off the charts.”

Scout #1: “There are a lot of similarities with Dybantsa and Peterson, but there are some differences. I like Dybantsa’s ability and think he’s a little bit longer. He has that size. When you look at both of these players, they’re big-time competitors. They want to play. They want to win. But I’m impressed with Peterson’s athleticism, his skill set at such a young age, and the way that he sees the floor. He’s very versatile with the ball. To do that at such a young age is exceptional. He has all the skill sets that you want from a point guard or a combo guard. He’s an amazing player.”

Scout #2: “I would probably take Peterson. Peterson is ready to score in the NBA right now. Think VJ Edgecombe or Tre Johnson. He’s ready to score. He shoots above 40% from 3. But I’m really about 50-50 on those guys. I would be thrilled with Dybantsa and vice versa. I think Dybantsa will get there. He has more of a mid-range pull-up. I think Peterson is more ready to impact the NBA statistically right now. But Dybantsa may turn out to be the better player in the long run. But I don’t know. I don’t know if either of them are franchise guys. I wouldn’t say that. People want to put Dybantsa in that category. While he is good, I don’t think he’s generational. But I think he’s fine and is a good player. Maybe when he’s 24, he’ll be a face of a franchise. But both are very good teenagers.”

To what degree do Peterson’s various injuries concern you?

NBA executive #1: “It’s concerning. I think people will look into it. All of the top guys will send their medicals to the appropriate teams. The doctors and sports performance team will take a look at all of that. But this isn’t just the first year or a one-off. This has been going on throughout high school and college. Even though it’s not an ACL or an Achilles injury, it’s certainly concerning at his age.”

Scout #1: “That’s why we do medical stuff. That’ll be highly scrutinized and researched. That’s something that will be important. Is that something that can be changed with his workouts, diet, or whatever? Some players are more attuned to certain things, but that’s easily adjusted. That will be scrutinized. Talk about Mikel Brown Jr. [Louisville], too. That kid is an exceptional player, but he’s had a back injury. We don’t know if he’s going to be available. He’s been gone for a couple of weeks. He can be a game-changer if he’s 100% healthy. But you really don’t know what that means in the big picture. That’s why the whole body of work is important. The NBA has a lot of resources. All of that comes into play when you’re evaluating a player.”

Scout #2: “There has been concern about Peterson and his lack of availability. But once the Draft comes around, I don’t think it will factor into anybody’s decision. I don’t think people care. This is part of the system we live in. The NBA players do it. They sit out if they have a torn fingernail. During a contract year, you have to take care of yourself. People frown on it. But I don’t think they’re alarmed. He’s pretty talented. I think he can score right away.”

What do you think Dybantsa’s durability means in the big picture?

NBA executive #1: “It means a lot. In today’s world in the NBA, availability is key. But I wouldn’t say that Dybantsa’s availability puts him ahead of Peterson. With Peterson’s injuries, those will be looked into. The doctors and sports performance staffs may say that it’s just cramps. As long as they can pinpoint why he’s missed so many games throughout his high school and college career, then I think that goes to the wayside. He’s 19 years old. But Dybantsa’s being available is helpful. I still think Peterson’s shooting is what separates him from AJ at this point. Prior to the last month or month and a half, Peterson was clearly the No. 1 pick until all of this started rearing its ugly head.”

Scout #1: “That’s a great point. When [Richie] Saunders went down, Dybantsa had to step up in a 3-point shooting role. He plays a lot of minutes. He competes. He’s vocal. He’s a leader. He plays to win. He’s a competitor.”

Scout #2: “I don’t think it sways anyone one way or the other that when he’s been available, Peterson isn’t. It’s just who do you like? Who do you think is more dynamic? Will AJ ever develop any kind of point-guard skills that are real, other than in iso situations? If he does that, you’re talking about a different player. But I don’t think Peterson’s up-and-down season will affect his draft stock. I don’t think we’ll see him fall to four or five. I think he’s the first or second pick, and certainly nothing outside of top three.”

What did you think of Caleb Wilson [North Carolina] this season before he got hurt?

NBA executive #1: “He’s probably the rawest of the top four prospects. Today, I think he probably goes at No. 4, but I would not be surprised if somehow somebody sneaks in there and takes him at No. 2 or 3. He has the size and athleticism. He’s very raw both offensively and defensively. But as an upside guy, he’s right there with Dybantsa. Those two players have the two highest ceilings out of the top four guys.”

Scout #1: “Versatility is a key in the NBA game right now. You have to have a skill set. But when you have versatility of different types of NBA skill sets, that projects a player’s longevity to make an impact. He has good size. He has good length. He’s mobile. He’s coordinated. He’s a natural athlete. He’s an above-the-rim player. He has a seasoned maturity that you don’t necessarily see from someone that can play inside and out.”

Scout #2: “I like him. North Carolina is screwed now with his injury. I like his versatility. He’s pretty damn good. I like his game. I think he’s a good two-way player.”

From a draft evaluation standpoint, how significant is it that Wilson won’t be able to play in the NCAA tournament because of a season-ending thumb injury?

NBA executive #1: “If you’re doing your homework right now to start the NCAA tournament, shame on you. There’s enough data and video available. You see it. It’s not like when Kyrie [Irving] played only 11 games [as a Duke freshman in 2010-11]. There’s too much body-of-work. The reason Wilson got hurt is that he’s exuberant. He’s a young kid out there and is wide-eyed. All he wants to do is just play basketball. He’s figuring it out. I don’t think the NCAA tournament will have any impact on him. At this point, the top four are the top four. If they never played another college game, they’re set in stone.”

Scout #1: “Being able to see a player go up another gear in a game where everything is on the line is helpful. But we can’t be jaded by it. You still have to look at his body of work. Caleb Wilson being hurt will hurt North Carolina. But it won’t hurt his draft stock. He’ll be ready in time for Chicago [at the pre-draft combine] and individual workouts.”

Scout #2: “I don’t think it affects it at all. You go based on the body of work. He had an amazing season up until the injury. And it’s not a serious injury. If he blew his knee out, that could give some people more pause than an injured thumb. So I don’t think it affects it at all.”

Big picture, to what extent do good or bad performances in the NCAA tournament usually affect a prospect’s draft positioning?

NBA executive #1: “It’s a data point. It certainly matters. But I think it matters more as you get further into the tournament than early. If you were to lose early, it doesn’t really bear that much weight. Let’s say with [Nate] Ament that Tennessee loses in the first round, but he has 22 [points] and 18 [rebounds]. Some will say the team isn’t that good, and he played well enough. It’s just a data point. Whether he played poorly or great and they lost, he’s the best player on the team, and they didn’t play well. For the players that lose in the first round, it depends on how they lose and if the guy played poorly.

Personally, I don’t think it weighs any heavier. Conversely, the longer you stay in, how he’s playing will have a little more impact in their decision-making than a guy that loses early. If someone plays five games and plays well, that’s going to be a data point. For the guys that lose early, they just get lost in the shuffle, and the games continue. It’s not as impactful as people think.

If someone loses early, they’re not going to fall from No. 7 to No. 20. That’s just not going to happen. But for players, scouts, and owners that haven’t seen a less profile team, if their best player goes two or three games deep, now that guy may get an invite to Chicago [for the pre-draft combine]. It’s more for the unknowns getting a chance to play on a more visible stage. They can get on somebody’s radar. They weren’t in the top 60, and now they may appear in the second round.”

Scout #1: “It’s almost jaded in a way. You can gauge who is rising to the level. But teams know a player’s strengths and weaknesses throughout the season. They have a lot of resources to know all of that.”

Scout #2: “Every once in a while, you have guys that have magical runs, and it pushes them up. But I don’t think you see anybody drop out of the lottery or jump into the lottery. It’s more about borderline second-round picks trying to get into the first. There may be an injury that could affect someone, such as Richie Saunders from BYU. I love him. He blew his knee out [torn right ACL]. So maybe a guy like that. Maybe Bennett Stirtz [Iowa] has a magical run. That can push him up a few spots. But I don’t see anybody projected late in the first round that will jump up into the lottery based on the NCAA tournament run. We’ve known these guys since AAU. We’ve seen them and have watched their entire career. Are there occasionally surprises? Yeah. But I think people have a very good idea on where all of these players stand going into the tournament.”

Who are the other prospects that have caught your eye and could be in the lottery mix?

NBA executive #1: “I think Brayden Burries [Arizona] has climbed. I think Aday Mara [Michigan] has climbed. I think [Joshua] Jefferson from Iowa State has improved his stock. I think Isaiah Evans from Duke has improved his stock. Those are the guys that are outside of the lottery, but may have increased their stock.

Burries has become Arizona’s best player. He’s consistently getting 18-22 [points] a night. He’s on top of the scouting report on each team, and he has delivered. He can score the ball. He can play with the ball and off the ball. He’s arguably on one of the best teams that has a chance to win it all. He’s exponentially grown at a quicker rate than anybody else in the draft. Evans is playing for the No. 2 team in the country despite losing two guys [Caleb Foster, Patrick Ngongba II]. But Evans has been there all year. He’s shooting it better and playing with more confidence. He’s elevated his draft stock with his shooting. Everybody needs shooting. With Aday Mara, there are not many people that can grow to be 7’3”. He can pass, block shots, and play with more force around the basket. He has to get stronger. Joshua Jefferson is playing on one of the best teams in the country. He’s more of a power forward than center. You can play through him. He can really pass. He knows how to score around the basket. He knows how to guard in space. He’s certainly elevated his stock.”

Scout #1: “Nate Ament [Tennessee]. He’s long. His shot is unblockable. He’s improved throughout the season. I think he can play like Chris Bosh with playing on the wing. Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville) can be great, if he’s healthy. How well is he going to move? Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas) is a go-to point guard. He played really well in the SEC tournament. I really like Brayden Burries [Arizona]. He’s a great two-way player. He has an injury on his non-shooting hand. Brayden has proven his toughness on both ends of the floor. He’s a guy that NBA teams will want. You might find him in the lottery or low in the first round.”

Scout #2: “I like Darius Acuff Jr. [Arkansas]. He’s another guy that is ready to score in the NBA. Will he be allowed to do that as a rookie? More than likely, he’ll be going to a bad team. So maybe. I think he’s better than [New Orleans Pelicans guard] Jeremiah Fears. He’s a scoring point guard and can defend. I think he’s going to be one of the most impactful players of this draft. He’s tough. He knows how to score at all three levels. I’m impressed with him. I could see him moving.

Yaxel [Lendeborg, Michigan] is someone that I think should be in the lottery. If someone drafts him higher, someone will look smart. He’s super versatile. He’s a hell of a defender, playmaker, and has a super high basketball IQ. He’s a relentless rebounder. He was at a JUCO [Arizona Western] for three years. I saw him last year at the American Conference Tournament, and he blew my socks off. He can do a lot of things on the floor. He initiates an offense. He can handle the ball. He’s a brilliant passer. He’s a hell of a player.”

Mark Medina is an NBA insider for EssentiallySports. Follow him on X, Blue Sky, Instagram, Facebook, and Threads.