The Green Wave has posted quality early victories against Northwestern, South Alabama, and Duke. However, Tulane’s 2025 season could swing in two very different directions. On one hand, the Green Wave has a rare chance to raise its profile with a demanding non-conference slate. On the other hand, the same schedule could deal them some early setbacks before conference play even begins.

When asked about having no FCS teams on Tulane’s schedule in a recent interview and how it could impact their playoff run, CFP Executive Director Rich Clark said: “The teams have been given their schedules and we are gonna judge them on the basis of how they perform with their given schedule. So it won’t matter if they got FCS teams or not.” He further added: “In the end, schedule does matter, but really it’s about how you perform on any given schedule”.

 He continued, “In the end, it’s about how you do with the resume you’re given. If you’ve been given a really strong schedule and you perform well in it, it’s going to bode well for you, but a strong schedule you don’t perform very well in isn’t gonna bode well for you. But if you play a very weak schedule and you win all your games, it won’t carry along as well (compared to) if you had a strong schedule and won those games.” Executive Director Rich Clark also emphasized fairness with new metrics rewarding teams on schedule strength and quality wins. This indicates a shift in the committee’s stance on the qualifying metrics for the playoff. Further levelling the playing field for teams with fewer resources. 

They’ll line up against three Power Four programs and one Group of Five opponent. Among the Group of Five programs, only Tulane and Kent State drew schedules of this caliber. Though the Golden flashes aren’t considered serious playoff contenders. Saturday’s Ole Miss game serves as an early test against a team the schedule list identifies as having one of the easiest non-conference slates, with Tulane seen as the Rebels’ toughest challenge. Ole Miss enters as 12.5-point favorites, and ESPN Analytics gives Tulane only a 13.2 percent chance of victory

The Green Wave’s road extends through challenging AAC matchups, including conference games at Memphis, North Texas, UTSA, and South Florida. Phil Steele ranks Tulane’s overall schedule 73rd in difficulty nationally, a notable feat for a Group of Five team. This demanding slate gives Tulane no room for error as they face stiff competition week after week.

Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has emerged as the offensive leader, excelling in both passing and rushing. Under the new CFP metrics, Tulane’s wins over Power Five teams carry more weight, increasing their playoff chances by awarding quality wins and reducing penalties for losses to strong opponents. Yet given the schedule, maintaining this level of success will be important to their postseason hopes.

CFP Past and Present: How Guidelines Have Influenced Playoff Contenders

Since 2014, CFP selection has emphasized undefeated or one-loss Power Five conference champions. The system often excluded the Group of Five teams despite their records and impressive performances. Traditional powers dominated playoff selections consistently throughout the first competitive decade, leaving deserving programs on the outside looking in.

The evaluation process evolved to include greater schedule strength consideration. Quality wins received increased weight in committee discussions about playoff positioning throughout recent seasons. These changes are aimed at fairness amid ongoing selection controversies and competitive balance concerns across all levels of college football. Tulane stands at a crossroads in this evolving playoff era with a genuine championship opportunity. Their 3-0 start demonstrates capability against quality competition throughout the early season. 

Dropping games is a real possibility, but if they navigate the challenge, they could stake a claim as one of the strongest G5 teams in the nation.