It is one of the sports bar debates that gets fan bases riled up from the minute the NFL releases the schedules each year. Who has the most demanding and weakest schedule?

One of my frustrations as a fan through the years is that the debate rages on throughout the season, but the analysis we use is largely based on preseason rankings of how strong we think every team will be throughout the season.

Even as advanced analytics have come into the game, with measures like ESPN’s Football Power Index, the why behind the stats is hard for most average fans to decipher. So we took on a little endeavor: to create a new fluid measure of each team’s immediate road ahead that we call the Next 5 Index.

We’re not looking to get too nerdy here. The first thing we did was create an UberRank number for each team based on an average of 10 different respected weekly power rankings on the Web, including our own, of course.

Here’s the Week 3 UberRankings at a glance:

From there, we applied those ‘UberRank’ numbers to each team’s Week 3 through 7 schedules, the next five weeks ahead.

Finally, we factored in big injuries around the league, whether games are home or away, and created extra weight for the all-important divisional matchups.

So, who has the toughest immediate gauntlets ahead? Let’s get into it.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Miami Dolphins, Week 4 vs. New Orleans Saints, Week 5 vs. New England Patriots, Week 6 at Atlanta Falcons, Week 7 Bye.

Not exactly a bombshell, given the Thursday Night Football matchup. But it’s crazy to think how the schedule is breaking for the Bills. They are tied with the Eagles for the highest average power rank (1.8) and have three straight home games and a bye in this stretch. Two divisional matchups, but against middling teams.

The road trip to Atlanta is really the only toss-up game they could lose in this stretch.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Falcons, Week 4 at Patriots, Week 5 vs. Dolphins, Week 6 vs. Cowboys, Week 7 at New York Jets.

This is welcome next for Panthers fans, as a run through lesser AFC East opponents could be the elixir to get the season back on track over the next five weeks. Some big-name teams, but the Falcons (16.5 out of 32) are the toughest UberRank.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 4 vs. Carolina Panthers, Week 5 at Buffalo Bills, Week 6 at Saints, Week 7 at Titans.

The Pats face a banged-up Steelers squad this week and a tough trip to Buffalo in two weeks. But on paper, if you’re a believer, this feels like a 4-1 stretch.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Patriots, Week 4 vs. Vikings, Week 5 BYE, Week 6 vs. Cleveland Browns, Week 7 at Cincinnati Bengals.

On brand recognition alone, this is tough, even though the highest UberRank opponent here is the Bengals (15.4). The Steelers have one advantage: a bye week before diving into a season-defining, divisional back-to-back.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Cowboys, Week 4 at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 5 BYE, Week 6 at Washington Commanders, Week 7 vs. Saints.

Can these Bears rebound from the 0-2 start? Kickstarting the rise against Dallas is essential. If we believe this team can ascend, then the Commanders’ tilt is the only other true challenge here.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Browns, Week 4 at Cowboys, Week 5 BYE, Week 6 vs. Bengals, Week 7 at Arizona Cardinals.

The rich are set up to get richer here. The Packers are among the highest in average power ranking, and their toughest opponent is home versus Cincinnati, without their star quarterback, Joe Burrow – and that’s after a bye.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 4 at Dolphins, Week 5 vs. Cowboys, Week 6 vs. Broncos in London, Week 7 vs. Panthers.

Only 26? This is a spot where I could argue that numbers might lie. At Tampa, hosting Dallas, then on a plane across the pond to face a nasty Broncos defense.

That’s a brutal three-game stretch.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Saints, Week 4 at Cardinals, Week 5 vs. Bucs, Week 6 at Jaguars, Week 7 vs. Texans.

The Saints bring down their ranking here. The three-game stretch into the South after a divisional battle against Arizona is going to tell us how built to last this Seahawks squad truly is.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Seahawks, Week 4 at Bills, Week 5 vs. Giants, Week 6 vs. Patriots, Week 7 at Bears

I wish I had better news for Saints fans.

The numbers say you have one of the softest schedules ahead, but reality says that 0-7 is likely. Better hope Arch Manning starts looking like a no-brainer No. 1 pick.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Bears, Week 4 vs. Packers, Week 5 at Jets, Week 6 at Panthers, Week 7 vs. Commanders

These first two NFC North games are going to answer the “contender or pretender” question. Only one in-division game here at the end of the stretch.

If they are who they think they are, the Cowboys have to go at least 3-2 here.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Broncos, Week 4 at Giants, Week 5 vs. Commanders, Week 6 at Dolphins, Week 7 vs. Colts.

How much do you believe in this team? The hype is overflowing for the Chargers at the moment. Honestly, if they are what their UberRank says they are, this should be a 5-0 stretch.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Bills, Week 4 vs. Jets, Week 5 at Panthers, Week 6 vs. Chargers, Week 7 at Browns.

We gave the Dolphins the tiebreaker here because they have two divisional showdowns to the Chargers’ one. It’s feeling like the team could have a new coach for the final three games of this stretch.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Colts, Week 4 at Texans, Week 5 at Cardinals, Week 6 at Raiders, Week 7 vs. Patriots.

I wish I had better news for Titans fans here. On paper, the Titans have a middle-of-the-road schedule. That doesn’t make it any less likely that 0-7 is their record after this stretch.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Raiders, Week 4 at Falcons, Week 5 at Chargers, Week 6 vs. Bears, Week 7 at Cowboys.

If the Commanders are going to make a jump into the league’s elite, they’re going to have to survive the Raiders without their star QB Jayden Daniels. From there, it’s brutal.

The Week 6 Bears matchup is the only game in which they are a clear-cut favorite.

This schedule alone, when I look at it, is why I love football and the drama of sports in general. I want the Commanders to be a contender. Can they go out there and earn it? Seeing it play out is going to be “get your popcorn ready” fun.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Bengals, Week 4 vs. Steelers in Dublin, Week 5 vs. Browns in London, Week 6 BYE, Week 7 vs. Eagles.

It doesn’t feel fair for any team to have to play back-to-back international games, even with a bye as the “thank you for your service” reward.

But add in a team reeling from potentially season-crushing injuries, and this five-week stretch is just not fair.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Commanders, Week 4 vs. Bears, Week 5 at Colts, Week 6 vs. Titans, Week 7 at Chiefs.

Whaddayagot, Geno Smith? That’s my first thought seeing this stretch. The QB laid an egg in clutch time against the Chargers in the Monday Night Football spotlight.

If Smith can be the consistent game manager who takes calculated risks, 4-1 feels like the best-case scenario here. But if you factor in Cam Ward’s upward potential here, it could just as easily turn into 0-5.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Jaguars, Week 4 vs. Titans, Week 5 at Ravens, Week 6 BYE, Week 7 at Seahawks

If you’re the Houston Texans head coach, DeMeco Ryans, you like the flow of this stretch. Yes, you’re 0-2, but you have a chance to establish divisional dominance before you go and upset a contender. Then you rest before heading west to finish off a 4-0 run to get right back in the playoff picture.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Giants, Week 4 vs. Ravens, Week 5 at Jaguars, Week 6 vs. Lions, Week 7 vs. Raiders

This is likely the most analyzed schedule on the table right now, as we all wonder if the Chiefs can rebound. It must begin with taking care of business in New York.

Lose that, and I’m ready to call this a 2-3 stretch that leaves the Chiefs in full-on panic mode.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Packers, Week 4 at Lions, Week 5 vs. Vikings, Week 6 at Steelers, Week 7 vs. Dolphins.

It’s put-up-or-shut-up time for head coach Kevin Stefanski and his staff. The front office created this mess at QB. What are y’all going to make of this muck?

Because as I look at this, it’s feeling like 0-6 heading into what could become the Toilet Bowl matchup of the NFL season in Week 7. And that last game could happen without Stefanski leading them, depending on how much pain owner Jimmy Haslam wants to absorb.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Titans, Week 4 at Rams, Week 5 vs. Raiders, Week 6 vs. Cardinals, Week 7 at Chargers

One of the feel-good stories of the year has one of the toughest four-week stretches on any team’s calendar after Week 3.

Yes, 3-0 is a real potential Monday morning storyline for Indy. But, so too is 3-4 after this gauntlet.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Chargers, Week 4 vs. Bengals, Week 5 at Eagles, Week 6 vs. Jets in London, Week 7 vs. Giants

A daunting test ahead in this stretch, with three playoff contenders followed by an international trip. The Bengals game got a little winnable in theory.

If this team could ever go 5-0 in this run, I would make them my AFC favorite for the Super Bowl.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Rams, Week 4 at Bucs, Week 5 vs. Broncos, Week 6 at Giants, Week 7 at Vikings.

All the haters are lining up their digs to bring Philly back to Earth with a loss to the Rams.

If the Eagles end this stretch at 7-0 and healthy overall, they are as much of a lock to get back to the Super Bowl as we’ve seen from a defending champ in years.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at 49ers, Week 4 vs. Seahawks, Week 5 vs. Titans, Week 6 at Colts, Week 7 vs. Packers

I don’t want to come off as too much of a pessimist, but … yeah.

I hope you’ve enjoyed that 2-0 start, Cardinals fans, because unless this team is truly better than anyone outside of Phoenix thinks they are, Arizona is staring at a 3-4 record after this run.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Cardinals, Week 4 vs. Jaguars, Week 5 at Rams, Week 6 at Bucs, Week 7 vs. Falcons.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan just needs to survive the injury bug, and 4-0 is within their grasp. From there, the schedule makers are making them earn any more hype with a brutal Weeks 5-7 trio.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Ravens, Week 4 vs. Browns, Week 5 at Bengals, Week 6 at Chiefs, Week 7 vs. Bucs.

We saw two different Lions teams over the first two weeks. Any questions of what this team is will be crystal clear after this epic stretch that includes only one comparative breather versus Cleveland.

As I said about the Broncos above, if the Lions could ever go 5-0 in THIS stretch, I am punching their ticket to Santa Clara for Super Bowl LX.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Jets, Week 4 vs. Eagles, Week 5 at Seahawks, Week 6 vs. 49ers, Week 7 at Lions.

Let’s be real. The Bucs are incredibly fortunate to be 2-0. Their opponents gave them the opportunity, and Baker Mayfield grabbed it.

Now, what are you going to do with the “gift”? Are you legit? Because 2-0 can freefall into 3-4 with this upcoming schedule. I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Panthers, Week 4 vs. Commanders, Week 5 BYE, Week 6 vs. Bills, Week 7 at 49ers

A top-6 tough schedule with a bye cooked in and the Panthers included? Yes, mostly.

We have some tweaking to account for the value of byes, but when you have the Commanders and Bills sandwiched between that rest, it’s nasty. That they are two games at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium helps mightily.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Texans, Week 4 at 49ers, Week 5 vs. Chiefs, Week 6 vs. Seahawks, Week 7 vs. Rams in London.

This is the moment. I’m looking at you, Trevor Lawrence. This is a defining five-game stretch for the rest of your career.

If the Jags could ever come out of this run at 4-3, Lawrence is suddenly King of Duuuuuuval again. If they could ever go 6-1 … well, he’d likely be atop the MVP race.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Vikings, Week 4 at Broncos, Week 5 vs. Lions, Week 6 at Packers, Week 7 vs. Steelers

I’ve listened to a lot of sports talk radio this week and heard so many Bengals fans saying, “Can we ever, just once, have something nice happen?”

I feel your pain, and I really didn’t want to add to it, but the numbers don’t lie. That 2-0 can catapult down a cliff to 2-5 very easily here.

If Jake Browning can steer the Bengals to 4-3 through this stretch, the Bengals are a legit contender even without Burrow.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Chiefs, Week 4 vs. Chargers, Week 5 at Saints, Week 6 vs. Eagles, Week 7 at Broncos.

So THIS is why many feel like head coach Brian Daboll is even more on the hot seat than Mike McDaniel is in Miami.

I dare you to find me a way to even 3-4 after this stretch. Vegas certainly won’t back you up on that optimism.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 vs. Lions, Week 4 at Chiefs, Week 5 vs. Texans, Week 6 vs. Rams, Week 7 BYE.

No team in NFL history will have ever earned a bye more than the Ravens after these next four games.

Bold prediction-ish: If the Ravens go 4-0 over this stretch and into the bye at 5-1, the MVP race is over. Just give it to Lamar Jackson right then and there.

The upcoming schedule: Week 3 at Eagles, Week 4 vs. Colts, Week 5 vs. 49ers, Week 6 at Ravens, Week 7 at Jaguars

This will likely be the Rams’ one-and-done week atop this index, as two AFC South opponents after the Eagles will bring down their number.

The Rams are the lone team to have two top-5 UberRank teams in their Next 5. So we can very easily say the same MVP statement about Matthew Stafford. Week 6 could be the 2025-26 MVP predictor.