As the San Francisco 49ers brace for the final stretch of a playoff push, the biggest unknown isn’t scheme, seeding, or momentum; it’s whether Brandon Aiyuk will ever take the field again this season. The 27-year-old wideout is still rehabbing the torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus he suffered last October, and with only four games left post-bye, even head coach Kyle Shanahan is no longer counting on his return. Yet, both Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have hope.

“When you make a commitment to a player like that, you know your hopes are everything goes smooth and all that,” Lynch said in a conversation with Tim Kawakami on Monday. “That’s not always the case.”

Both Lynch and Shanahan maintained the same view as optimism appeared to be vanishing. The duo talked about the situation in a conversation with Bay Area radio station KNBR last week:

“Realistic? I’m not sure,” Lynch said. “Hopeful? Yeah. So, I think that’s kind of where I’d leave that. He continues to rehab, and hopefully, that’s, like I’ve always said, we’re a better football team when Brandon’s out there, and I hope that’s the case.

Shanahan’s remarks made it clear he’s preparing the offense as if Aiyuk won’t be available: “Oh, I’m definitely still hopeful. I’m not counting on it, but I’m definitely still hoping that can happen.”

The 49ers aren’t the first contenders forced to navigate a star receiver’s injury while balancing major contract decisions.

In 2022, the Tennessee Titans faced a similar dilemma with A.J. Brown, ultimately trading him rather than committing cap space during uncertainty. More recently, the Chargers weighed Keenan Allen’s durability concerns before restructuring his deal in 2023. Aiyuk’s situation now places San Francisco in that same league-wide pattern of difficult, timing-sensitive decisions.

Not just Lynch and Shanahan, but tight end George Kittle also gave his views on the fiasco.

The 49ers front office staff has its work cut out for it, especially after offering Aiyuk the extension last season. Whether he would return to the team or not will be a decision that affects the 49ers off the field as well.

The 49ers face a cap crunch amid Brandon Aiyuk’s situation

According to ESPN’s breakdown, moving on from Aiyuk in 2026 would leave the 49ers with about $29.6 million in dead money on the cap. If they designate him as a post-June 1 release (or trade him after June 1), they could spread that hit over two seasons, roughly $13.3 million in 2026 and the remainder in 2027, instead of eating it all at once.

The team will also get a $4.987 million credit on their 2027 salary cap if they do a post-June 1 release.

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All that said, the contract could end up becoming a massive misfire in the league’s history. By the end of it all, the 49ers would have paid him about $34 million of the $120 million contract extension that was signed last year. But Aiyuk has not played any games in the extension year of the contract.

Had San Francisco not signed the extension, they would have paid him just $14.12 million for last season and then allowed him to leave the team as a free agent.

Regardless, a decision will have to be made sooner rather than later, especially with just four games remaining this season. On the field, the 49ers are riding high with a 9-4 record and a three-game winning streak. Shanahan will look to continue the momentum when the team faces the Tennessee Titans on December 14.

Let’s also have a look at some of the players who have outperformed the rest of the league and have established themselves as strong candidates for the MVP award: