Texas Longhorn quarterback Arch Manning’s future is already being discussed in NFL-money terms, and former NFL tight end Shannon Sharpe thinks there is little reason for Manning to spend another year in college after the 2026 season. Sharpe predicted on Nightcap, where he appeared alongside co-hosts Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson and Joe “Iso Joe” Johnson.
Watch What’s Trending Now!
“Well, I appreciate it. I sure appreciate looking at that. But I think Arch Manning, look, the expectation is that he’s coming out after this season.”
“You think about it: what Mendoza signed for- about $60 million, fully guaranteed. He’d be in line for a contract, $350, $400 million. I’m not delaying getting to the bag any longer than I have to,” Sharpe said on the podcast.
The Mendoza reference points to Indiana product Fernando Mendoza, who signed a fully guaranteed rookie contract worth roughly $60 million after going No. 1 overall in the most recent draft.
There’s just one problem with that argument: Manning himself has already had this exact conversation, out loud, and landed somewhere completely different. When he chose to return to Texas instead of entering the 2026 draft, he explained his reasoning in terms that had nothing to do with money at all.
“I feel like I developed a lot this year, especially towards the back half, and I want to keep it going. There is no reason to leave. I feel like I have a lot more football left to play.”
That decision alone cost him a shot at a fully guaranteed rookie contract this year, the exact kind of payday Sharpe and Ochocinco were pushing him to chase next time around. Manning was widely projected as a potential No. 1 overall pick before his first season as a full-time starter even kicked off, and he walked away from that opportunity anyway.
His grandfather, Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback Archie Manning, actually jumped the gun on this exact storyline months earlier, telling a Texas publication his grandson had no intention of ever leaving college early. Arch had to publicly walk that back once reporters caught wind of it.
“Yeah, I don’t know where he got that from. He texted me and apologized about that. I’m really just taking it day by day, right now.”
That back-and-forth between grandfather and grandson says a lot about how much outside noise surrounds every decision Manning makes, whether it comes from family, media, or now a trio of NFL legends debating his bank account on a podcast.
Manning’s actual 2025 numbers – 3,163 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and a 78.0 QBR across a 10-3 season capped by a Citrus Bowl win – gave him every reason to believe he already had first-round grades if he wanted to test the market.
He didn’t. Instead, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian had already argued that another season would help Manning sharpen his game before making the jump to the NFL.
“He’s got some unfinished business of what he came here to do, and what he came here to accomplish.”
That’s really what the Nightcap conversation comes down to. Sharpe sees a pretty simple reality: rookies are getting paid more than ever, while established quarterbacks are pushing the market past $50 million a year. From that perspective, waiting doesn’t make much sense.
Manning clearly sees it differently. For now, he seems more interested in finishing his run at Texas and entering the NFL when he feels the time is right, rather than rushing toward the biggest paycheck he can get.
We won’t have to wait long to see whether that approach works. Texas gets No. 1 Ohio State on September 12, giving Manning an early chance to show what he can do against one of the toughest teams on the schedule.