Math doesn’t care about heroics. Joe Burrow is back, looking sharp, slinging touchdowns like his turf toe injury never happened. The Cincinnati Bengals crushed the Baltimore Ravens 32-14 in Week 13. The M&T Bank Stadium went wild. But the brutal truth is that it’s probably too late.

The Bengals are 4-8, twelve games deep into what seems like another lost season. This is the same record they held last year when they won five straight to finish 9-8 and still missed the playoffs. But mounting another five straight wins this year won’t be a walk in the park. 

“Does Joe Burrow coming back change anything for the Bengals? But the Bengals have absolutely no margin for error,” ESPN’s Ben Baby captured the sentiment perfectly. “That will be tougher this season with games against Buffalo and Baltimore still looming. Cincinnati will need help from the Ravens and Steelers, and also not make any mistakes.”

The mission for Cincy is simple. They need to win every single game going forward, and pray that the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens stumble. That’s the way they climb up the AFC North leaderboard now.

After Week 13’s defeat, the Ravens will be out for revenge in Week 15 for their rematch. And before that, the Buffalo Bills will be looking to flip the script on their Week 12 Steelers loss, starting with their own Week 13 matchup against the Bengals.

With so many variables, Cincy’s postseason probability stands at a mere 2.2% as per SportsLine after Week 13. Not pretty. But Joe Burrow understands the stakes better than anyone.

“It’s no secret that every game from here on out is basically a must win, especially in the division,” Burrow notes. “It was great to get this one, coming off a short week.”

Burrow’s words did address their difficult situation, bringing them back to reality. But if we look at Cincy’s Thanksgiving brawl, there might still be hope, and Joe Burrow’s return is a major reason why.

Is Joe Burrow back in business?

On his return, Burrow looked good. No easing back in, no cautious return, just wearing a metal plate in his cleats to stabilize his toe. He became the first player this season to throw 40+ passes through three quarters, finishing with 42 attempts before the fourth quarter even started.

The last quarterback to do that was Burrow himself, Week 3 of the 2023 season against the Los Angeles Rams, coming back from a calf injury. 

Altogether, he completed 24-of-46 for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Both scores came in a dominant third quarter that broke Baltimore’s back. First, tight end Tanner Hudson stretched his left arm for a spectacular one-handed 14-yard grab. On the next possession, Burrow spotted wideout Andrei Losivas and dropped a perfect 29-yard dime for six points. But it wasn’t all pretty.

Early on, Burrow connected with Ja’Marr Chase, back from his one-game suspension. Their chemistry looked untouched, but red-zone execution was still messy. They settled for field goals when touchdowns were possible. Kicker Evan McPherson hit three kicks to keep them ahead before the offense finally punched through.

Cincy’s defense turned Baltimore over five times, matching their total from the first 11 games combined. They suffocated Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, snapped the Ravens’ five-game win streak, and suddenly looked like a team that was dominating the football field.

It’s a mixed bag that doesn’t erase a 4-8 record. The next few weeks will tell the real story. If the playoff door slams shut completely, it’s back to the draft boards for 2026. That’s the reality. Burrow’s healthy again, and that matters a lot. But is it enough for their bleak playoff hopes?