A record-breaking five teams went from 11+ losses in 2024 to making the playoffs in 2025. It’s not easy to go from worst to first in the NFL. You need a combination of good coaching, a good roster, but most importantly, luck.

With so many teams completely flipping their trajectories in just one season, some are bound to be overachievers. Teams that either competed in weak divisions or got the better end of the officiating stick. While no amount of luck can be the sole reason for a team making the playoffs, we think these teams overachieved in 2025.

Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers are the easiest team for this list. They only won three more games in 2025 (8) than they were able to muster in 2024 (5). Carolina wasn’t a playoff team because they were good, they were a playoff team because the NFC South was bad.

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They couldn’t even win the most important game of their season. In Week 18, the Panthers could’ve solidified their playoff hopes with a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Instead, they lost and had to hope for some extra inner-division help to make it in.

Carolina isn’t necessarily a bad team. Bryce Young has finally started to show a few signs of being the franchise quarterback, but another lackluster season by him in 2026 could see the Panthers searching for his replacement.

Neither the Panthers’ offense nor defense was that good. They ranked 27th in the NFL in total offense, and their defense was as middle-of-the-pack as you could be, ranking 16th.

The NFC South is projected to be a little stronger next season, with Tyler Shough developing for the New Orleans Saints, and the Buccaneers expected to get back to form. I’m not sure Carolina would be able to make it back to the playoffs.

Prediction to replicate the same success in 2026: 25%

Houston Texans

The Houston Texans‘ defense is for real, but their offense may have been carried along for the ride.

The Texans had the best defense in the NFL in 2025, ranking first in yards allowed per game. Their offense wasn’t as efficient, ranking in the bottom half of the league.

A lot of it falls on quarterback C.J. Stroud. After an excellent rookie campaign, many thought Stroud would be the next star quarterback in the league. But after back-to-back mediocre at best seasons, rumors are flying about the Texans looking to potentially move on.

It doesn’t all fall on the young quarterback, however. Their passing offense ranked 14th in the league; it was their running game that couldn’t move the needle. The Texans averaged 108.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 10th-worst in the NFL.

With the Jacksonville Jaguars developing into a legitimate playoff team under Liam Coen and the Indianapolis Colts proving they’re just a quarterback away, Houston may have peaked in 2025.

Prediction to replicate the same success in 2026: 45%

San Francisco 49ers

It feels impossible to say the San Francisco 49ers are overachievers. They have been consistently competing for Super Bowls over the last five years. But the 49ers’ roster may be closer to needing a rebuild than competing for a Lombardi Trophy.

Kyle Shanahan is a master mind. He has proved time and time again that he is a coaching wizard and could coach up the weakest of rosters. I’m not saying San Francisco’s roster is weak and lacks talent, but it’s full of aging and overachieving players.

George Kittle, Trent Williams, and Kyle Juszczyk are all over 35 years old and in the last years of their careers. Truthfully, the 49ers likely aren’t a playoff team if Christian McCaffrey doesn’t play like an MVP candidate in 2025.

And finally, Brock Purdy, the former Mr. Irrelevant, produces, and there’s no doubting that, but his ceiling isn’t high, and he’s mostly a product of Shanahan’s offense. Purdy simply won’t put up the numbers he has in any other offense, and Mac Jones proved that when he took over at quarterback.

With the NFC West being the best division in football, it’s hard to imagine the 49ers will be able to keep up with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks in the future.

Prediction to replicate the same success in 2026: 50%

Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles‘ season was full of frustration. Coming off a dominant Super Bowl run in 2024, the Eagles entered the season with high expectations. Despite finishing the year with an 11-6 record, their season still felt like it was missing something.

Their offense was the main topic of controversy. From the media consistently bashing their lack of creativity on offense, to Saquon Barkley‘s less-than-impressive 2025 production, it was clear the Eagles’ offense wasn’t what it was under Kellen Moore.

Jalen Hurts had a decent season. He had a better year passing the ball than he did in 2024, but there was lingering drama throughout. Star receiver A.J. Brown was consistently upset about his role in the offense, with many predicting tension between Browns and Hurts. Philadelphia ended the year with a bottom-10 offense and fired its offensive coordinator.

Their defense wasn’t as bad, ranking 13th in the NFL with breakouts from plenty of star players.

With the New York Giants finding their potential quarterback of the future and acquiring a legendary head coach, the Eagles’ reign over the NFC East may be over.

Prediction to replicate the same success in 2026: 50%

New England Patriots

This is the tough one. The New England Patriots flew under the radar to start the season, but an MVP-caliber season by Drake Maye propelled New England to the Super Bowl.

Getting to the Super Bowl in your young quarterback’s second season isn’t unheard of. Maye played great throughout the year and deserved the MVP if Matthew Stafford didn’t exist. But his youth began to show in the playoffs, making it clear Maye wasn’t ready just yet for the big stage.

Mike Vrabel deserves a lot of credit. He turned a 4-13 roster in 2024 into a Super Bowl team in 2025. But there’s no question that the Patriots weren’t prepared for a Super Bowl appearance. The Seahawks dominated every part of the game, and it was never really close.

The AFC East isn’t a hard division in itself, but the Patriots will be challenging one of the consistently great NFL teams twice a year in the Buffalo Bills. With other risers in the AFC, I’m not sure if New England will be able to make it back to the Super Bowl in 2026.

Prediction to replicate the same success in 2026: 60%