For the Buffalo Bills, the path to victory is seemingly clear-cut, but against the Philadelphia Eagles, that very strength could become their biggest liability. Much of what the Bills have well this season has been driven by their run game. Surprisingly, even with Josh Allen under center, the passing game hasn’t led to much. But NFL analyst Greg Cosell doesn’t believe relying entirely on the run would be wise against the Eagles’ defense this week.

“In some ways to me, this becomes a very Joe Brady game. Right now, he’s figuring out how he can attack this defense with the pass. James Cook has had a phenomenal year; you could argue he should be in the MVP conversation. But looking at this defense, I’d be surprised if the Bills are going to run for 180 yards,” Cosell said in the game preview.

“They’re going to have to throw the ball somewhere along the line in this game and have sustaining success,” he added.

And sure, there’s logic there. Eagles–Bills has tilted Philly’s way lately. The Eagles have won three straight in the series and five of the last six. They’ve split their eight games in Buffalo, but another win would match Philadelphia’s longest run against the Bills, a four-game streak from 1981 to 1987. This has not been a friendly matchup for Buffalo.

Cosell’s thinking is that OC Joe Brady needs to open things up, spread the field, and put more on the passing game. That’s where things get tricky. The Bills average the third-most total yards per game in the league, but that number is heavily padded by the run.

They’re rushing for 158.9 yards per game, best in the NFL. Through the air, they’re at 230.7 yards per game, which sits right in the middle of the pack at 16th. For a team with Josh Allen, that tells you something. The Bills simply haven’t had a dependable receiving group all season.

Outside of Khalil Shakir, no one has really claimed the role. The boundary receivers have been a revolving door: Joshua Palmer, Tyrell Shavers, Keon Coleman, Gabe Davis, Curtis Samuel. Names have come and gone, but production hasn’t followed.

Since the Week 11 win over Tampa Bay, it’s actually gotten worse. Over the last five games, that group of boundary receivers has failed to top 53 receiving yards in any game. That’s pretty concerning for Joe Brady and Josh Allen.

So Cosell might be right in theory. At some point, you usually have to throw the ball. But football isn’t played in theory. And when your best unit is the run game, and when James Cook is rolling the way he is, you don’t overthink it.

The Bills’ over-reliance on James Cook doesn’t have to be bad

Cosell said he’s not sure James Cook will be able to do what he normally does against a defense like Philadelphia’s. That’s a fair concern. It’s also a hard sell.

Cook has been Buffalo’s engine all season. He leads the league with 1,532 rushing yards and has topped 100 yards in four of the Bills’ last five games. That run includes matchups against the Houston Texans, which fields the best defense in football, and the Cleveland Browns, a unit that ranks third in defensive rush EPA.

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When you really look at the Eagles, the matchup isn’t quite as daunting on the ground as the reputation suggests. Their pass defense has actually been the stronger part of the unit, sitting seventh in the league, while the run defense ranks 21st. To their credit, they’ve tightened things up lately.

Since getting gashed for 281 rushing yards by Chicago, Philadelphia has steadied itself. The Chargers piled up 169 on the ground, though a good chunk of that came from Justin Herbert scrambling. After that, the Raiders managed just 46 rushing yards, and Washington was held to below 100. That’s real improvement.

Still, there’s a number that jumps out. The Eagles are 1-5 this season when they allow 125 rushing yards or more. For a back like Cook, that threshold feels reachable. And it matters that Nakobe Dean, one of their key run defenders, left the Commanders’ game with a hamstring injury. If he’s limited or out, that’s a real loss in the middle.

All of which brings it back to Buffalo’s reality. The Bills can talk about balance and throwing more, but the most reliable part of their offense has been Cook. Given the uncertainty at receiver, it might make more sense to keep leaning into what’s worked, even against a defense that’s trending in the right direction.