NFL Next Gen Stats gives the 9-4 Buffalo Bills a 96 percent chance to make the playoffs. However, for the first time in five years, the Bills Mafia is wondering if they can appear in their sixth consecutive division title game. With the shrinking AFC East Window, their wide receiver, Khalil Shakir, sat down with EssentiallySports’ Tim Wood to talk about how the crucial divisional showdown in Foxborough against the 11-2 New England Patriots can help them.

“I think if we can go back in time, there are games and plays that we would want back, and games and plays that have changed the course of a game,” Shakir said. “Obviously, there are four games where the outcome wasn’t what we wanted it to be.”

This season, the Bills have become the team to beat in the second half; their first half, though, has landed them in trouble more often than not.

Case in point: Bills’ Week 5 matchup with the Patriots. With just 2:47 minutes left in the game and the Bills trailing the opponents 20-17, quarterback Josh Allen threw three consecutive incompletions, twice to Shakir and once to Keon Coleman. At 4th & 10, head coach Sean McDermott had to send Matt Prater for a 45-yard field goal to tie the game 20-20.

If the team had completed a first down there by showing urgency, the result of the game could’ve been flipped. With Patriots’ Andres Borregales completing a 52-yard field goal, the visitors took the game 23-20. The Week 12 loss against the Houston Texans also saw Allen’s offense fail.

With just 24 seconds remaining in regulation and the Bills trailing the Texans 19-23, first, LT Dion Dawkins was penalized for five yards for a false start. Then, at Houston 22 on a 4th & 6 play, Allen’s pass intended for WR Josh Palmer was intercepted by the Texans safety Calen Bullock at Houston 9 to end the game. To make matters worse, Allen was sacked eight times and recorded zero touchdowns in that game.

However, if there’s one thing the Bills do best, it’s not getting shaken by any challenge.

The Bills’ mindset and their game plan ahead

“I think for us, and the best thing that we do as an organization is just focusing on the next. Just putting one foot in front of the other, not looking back, just forward. It sounds like it’s cliches, but it’s what our team lives by,” Shakir said.

However, the Bills are not only focusing on each game; they are attacking every drive.

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Their comeback against the Cincinnati Bengals in the last game proved that. With just six minutes left, Buffalo trailed 28-25. However, in the very next snap, Bills cornerback Christian Benford turned things around for his team.

On a 1st down with 5:35 left, when the Bengals QB Joe Burrow threw a pass towards Ja’Marr Chase, Christian Benford intercepted it at BUF-37 and returned for a 63-yard touchdown. The defensive play was Burrow’s first interception of the season, giving the Bills their very first lead of the entire game. Then, with two touchdowns, Allen continued the team’s streak of home wins with a 39-34 victory.

Now Shakir expects that same mindset in Foxborough.

“We have the Patriots this week, so we’re locked in and focused on them, and we know there are fewer chances to climb, so we need to take care of business.”

However, the Bills cannot rely on heroics alone. Their defense sits at 23rd according to PFF, while the offense ranks sixth. That gap matters as the regular season hits its final stretch. Still, the growing chemistry between Shakir and Allen gives the Bills Mafia a reason to stay loud. Hope rises fast in the cold of Orchard Park.

Already, McDermott is going aggressive with the offense’s approach. It was very visible in their win over the Bengals when the head coach kept his offense on the field on crucial fourth downs, and they succeeded in converting them to first downs. Then there was the tweaked strategy by Allen, who went off script and found Shakir for a wild 11-yard touchdown to cut the lead 14-9.

Then, instead of going for a field goal, McDermott chose a two-point attempt, wanting to grab as many points as possible. With a quick throw to Dawson Knox, Allen ended the drive with 14-11. So, the team is already in that mindset of playing games as if they are playoff matchups. Now, they have four games ahead of them that can be hurdles to their playoff push.

Bills’ playoff scenario and how the Patriots game will impact it

The Patriots lead the AFC East with 11-2, with the Bills trailing by two games back at 9-4. So, the Patriots can lock up the AFC East with a win, something Buffalo is determined to prevent. After ruling the division for five straight seasons, the Bills know they are not handing over that crown without a fight. For now, their chances to clinch the division title at this point are only 11 percent. A win over the Patriots, however, can push it to 24 percent.

What they can fight for now is staying alive in the playoffs. But if they slip, things get messy fast because the (8-5) Philadelphia Eagles wait in Week 17. So, Buffalo needs momentum, and they need it now.

Yet there is one small edge on their side. The Patriots’ only two losses this season have happened at home, giving Buffalo some confidence going into this road battle.

If the Bills pull off the upset, then the picture shifts. New England would fall to 11-3, and Buffalo would rise to 10-4. The season series would be split, and the next tiebreaker would be division record. Even then, the Patriots still hold a better mark at 3-1, while the Bills sit at 3-2, so the climb stays tough.

The win also changes the AFC playoff picture. Right now, the Patriots are in second position, while the Bills are in seventh spot. Their upcoming games help, as they have the 15th-hardest remaining schedule in the league. So, a win not only keeps the division race alive but also gives Buffalo a cleaner path in the playoff picture. It’s either take care of business with a win over the Patriots to remain in the divisional hunt or get set to head on the road for the first round of the playoffs. The Bills will make their choice on Sunday.