The Buffalo Bills have leaned on the run game a lot more than the passing game, despite having a quarterback like Josh Allen under center. It might have worked just enough for them to scramble their way into January. But NFL analyst Greg Cosell warns that it would be a little more complicated against the Jaguars in the AFC Wild Card game this Sunday.

“If you had to say what they are fundamentally, you’d say they lead towards zone,” Greg Cosell said on the Buffalo Bills’ preview show. “But there have been games this year where they played more men, which raises the question of whether they might do that against the Bills.”

It is safe to say that the Jags have looked unpredictable throughout the season. DC Anthony Campanile doesn’t want offenses walking into a game with a clean picture of what they’re getting. Some weeks, he leans into man coverage more than expected, and that changes how an offense has to structure its plan. That’s what fascinates Cosell.

“I think he’s done a really good job, and I love what he does,” Cosell said. “I think he’s a fascinating mix of a Vic Fangio scheme where he is aggressive but passive.”

At its core, the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ defense is zone-heavy. Roughly 79 percent of their snaps are played in the zone, with man coverage showing up closer to 18 percent. That puts them among the league’s most zone-reliant units.

Regardless of what Campanile chooses to lean on, Greg Cosell believes that the Bills should stick to their biggest strength: the run game. But he is also seemingly curious to see whether Anthony Campanile leans more toward man or zone coverage.

Buffalo Bills should stick to the plan: Let the run game lead

Looking at the matchup, it is more likely Campanile sticks with zone coverage, because going heavy man-to-man against the Buffalo Bills could potentially backfire against the Bills’ strong run game.

In man coverage, defenders are focused on covering individual receivers and often turn their backs to the backfield. Doing that against a team like the Bills is dangerous. Bills’ RB James Cook finished the season with the 2025 NFL rushing title for his impressive 307 carries for 1621 yards. QB Josh Allen, who’s had a productive season with the Bills, is one of the strongest arms in the NFL and can also run.

“With a very few exceptions, the Bills have essentially run the ball against everybody,” Cosell said. “There have not been many games where their run game has been shut down. I think the Bills are going to do what they do, and I think they will have meaningful success.”

He highlighted the Bills vs Chiefs Week 12 game, when the ‘B-unit’ stayed committed even against a strong run defense. James Cook finished that day with 114 yards, and the Bills walked out with a 28–21 win.

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No team has run the ball better this season than Buffalo, as they’re averaging 159.6 rushing yards per game, the highest in the league. But it certainly isn’t going to be easy against the Jaguars.

Only five teams topped 100 rushing yards against Jacksonville all season. The best single rushing performance came from Jonathan Taylor, who managed 74 yards in Week 14 for the Indianapolis Colts. However, Cook hit that number 12 times this season and cleared 100 yards in nine of the regular-season games.

That contrast is what makes this matchup interesting. It remains to be seen whether the Bills and their run game prove to be too much for the Jags to handle or if the Jags’ unpredictable defensive strategy will turn out to be the ultimate answer to the league’s best offense.