The Bills have become one of the NFL’s most consistent winners under Sean McDermott. Ninety-three total wins, regular season and playoffs, in his first eight years, puts him tied for the second-most in NFL history. Five straight division titles. A pair of AFC Championship appearances. An identity built around toughness, discipline, and a quarterback who can stiff-arm a linebacker and throw 70 yards flat-footed. But in the NFL, sustained success without the ultimate payoff has a shelf life. The pressure is rising.

According to USA TODAY, McDermott now ranks No. 5 among head coaches on the NFL’s hot seat entering 2025. That’s not a rumor, it’s a reflection of expectation. Because in Buffalo, winning the AFC East isn’t good enough anymore. CBS analyst Tyler Sullivan also echoed a similar sentiment, placing him at number 5 in the hot seat rankings.

The Chiefs have become Buffalo’s white whale. Four of the Bills’ last five playoff exits have come at the hands of Patrick Mahomes. A near-miss in 2020. It’s not just that they lose, it’s who they fail to. 13 seconds in 2021. Another hard-fought defeat in the 2024 title game. It’s a broken record at this point, and McDermott’s inability to flip that script has started to create cracks in what was once considered an untouchable regime.

And let’s be real, Josh Allen isn’t getting any younger, even if his arm suggests otherwise. Buffalo’s roster is loaded. They’ve got cap-tight veteran urgency and a top-tier quarterback in his prime. That combination doesn’t stay together forever. And if Sean McDermott can’t turn that into a Super Bowl appearance, the front office might start asking about the holdup.

Still, the prediction for now? He’s safe. At least through 2025. The continuity, the culture, the sheer number of wins, it’s earned him that. But the expectations have shifted. If this season ends in the same way it always does, in heartbreak, don’t be shocked if he gets replaced. Many analysts are already questioning his ability.

Sean McDermott snubbed from top 10 rankings

The top of PFF’s top 10 returning coaches rankings brings no real surprises. Andy Reid remains the gold standard after leading the Chiefs to another Super Bowl appearance last season. Sean Payton earned his spot by rallying Denver back to relevance, with structure and defensive grit. And Sean McVay, the Rams‘ HC, continues to get credit not just for the Super Bowl win but for evolving his system through cap resets and injuries. But everyone noticed the missing name. Sean McDermott!

His fall from the top-10 tier wasn’t overnight; it’s been a slow slide hidden behind steady success. PFF ranked him 9th in their 2023 rankings. He slid down to 10th place in the 2024 rankings. This year, he is out. McDermott was viewed as one of the most reliable head coaches in the league. But reliable doesn’t trend anymore. And with expectations rising, patience is getting thinner.

That sentiment was echoed again this week in WalterFootball’s latest coaching power rankings, where Senior Draft Analyst Charlie Campbell slotted McDermott 12th among 25 returning NFL head coaches. Campbell didn’t mince words either: “They get to the playoffs and they lose. They don’t get to the Super Bowl,” he said. “I think McDermott has done a good job, but not a great job.” So what now?

McDermott still enters 2025 with one of the league’s best rosters, an MVP-level quarterback in Josh Allen, and a franchise that fully expects a Super Bowl. But if that run ends in another shortfall, especially against the same Kansas City-shaped wall, the Bills may have to ask a hard question: Has McDermott done all he can? And the rankings? They’ll keep slipping until the confetti finally lands in Buffalo.