Back in the spring, it felt simple. The Philadelphia Eagles and the Buffalo Bills looked like the two teams everyone would be circling for February. Seventeen weeks later, it hasn’t been a clean season for either. There have been highs and lows. Both sit at 11-5, and with that, NFL Network’s Kurt Warner revealed who he trusts more with a real shot at the Lombardi.

“I’d probably pick Josh Allen and company. Their defense is playing a little bit better, their run game is good, and I trust Josh to make the play,” Warner said on The Rich Eisen Show. “He missed the play yesterday, but he doesn’t miss those plays very often.

“And he makes up for it with something else. Knowing where the quarterbacks are, especially on the AFC side, I would probably lean towards Josh Allen, his experience, and that team more than the Eagles right now,” he added.

It’s hard to argue against the logic. Against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17, Josh Allen tried to drag the Buffalo Bills back into the game almost by himself. He completed 23 of 35 passes for 262 yards, added seven carries for 27 yards, and scored two rushing touchdowns. He kept pushing even when things weren’t going smoothly.

But that game also turned on one moment. Down one with five seconds left, the Bills went for a 2-point conversion. Allen threw, and the pass sailed just beyond Khalil Shakir’s reach in the back of the end zone. It ended the comeback. Still, Warner’s trust in Allen isn’t built on one night. It’s built on what he has seen over time. And it’s also shaped by what he hasn’t seen from Philadelphia.

The Eagles have weapons everywhere, but the offense fades too often. Against Buffalo, all 13 of their points came before halftime. After that, it was a shutdown.

Outside of the opening drive after halftime, which gained one first down, it was punt after punt: Four straight three-and-outs, five punts total, seventeen yards in the entire second half. You cannot lean on that sort of inconsistency.

There is also the broader view. During Nick Sirianni’s five seasons with the Eagles, the Bills are the only team in the league with more regular-season wins over that same stretch. Buffalo has scored the most points and allowed the fewest points in that span. And since 2022, Allen is the only quarterback with more total touchdowns than Jalen Hurts.

But of course, this conversation is about a trophy Buffalo still hasn’t lifted. Before the Week 17 loss, their chance sat at 8.3 percent. They’ve already missed out on the AFC East, and their postseason path will come from the wild card. They’ll land somewhere between the No. 5, No. 6, or No. 7 seed.

To be the No. 5 seed, Buffalo will need to win Week 18 against the New York Jets, AND both the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers will have to lose.

But if only one of those teams loses, Buffalo settles at No. 6. If the Bills lose Week 18, they will drop to No.7.

What’s clear is this: the road won’t be easy. As things stand, Buffalo could draw anyone from the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Jaguars, Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, or Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs. All of them are pretty difficult matchups, to say the least. So, do the Bills really have a chance?

What suggests that the Bills can win the Super Bowl this time?

Let’s be honest about where the Bills are right now. This isn’t a perfect team. The receivers don’t scare anyone, the defense has been uneven, and the passing game, by their standards, has felt disjointed for long stretches. And yet, strange as it sounds, this might still be Josh Allen’s best window to win a Super Bowl.

The path looks different this year. Patrick Mahomes won’t be there. Add Joe Burrow and (potentially) Lamar Jackson to that list.

Another critical factor is that they have the best run game in the league. It’s been the backbone of their season. The Buffalo Bills are averaging 156.4 rushing yards per game, the second-best mark in the league (after the Ravens), and they’ve leaned into it more than ever. Allen has been right in the middle of that identity, piling up 579 rushing yards, second-most on the roster.

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If they go all the way, this is how they do it. Still, the road is steep. With their five-year run atop the AFC East now over, head coach Sean McDermott’s group is likely staring at three road games just to reach Super Bowl LX. That’s not a small thing. Allen has yet to win a playoff game away from home. He’s 0–4 so far.

There are other concerns, too. Tight end Dalton Kincaid, the team’s second-leading receiver with 523 yards, is dealing with knee issues, and his status isn’t settled.

But the biggest challenge might just be luck. This franchise has been to four Super Bowls in the 90s and lost all four. That history isn’t forgotten in Buffalo, even if this roster wasn’t around for it.

So, nothing about this run will be comfortable. Every game will be on the road. And if they get through the AFC, they could be staring at a heavy NFC opponent like the Philadelphia Eagles or the Seattle Seahawks in the showdown. Can they finally push through it? We’ll find out soon.