Before the season kicked off, Josh Allen sat down with his teammates and gave them one goal of the season that still eludes the Buffalo Bills– a Lombardi Trophy. The reigning league MVP has led the team to the playoffs for six straight years now. However, the path to the Super Bowl has mostly been blocked by a Kansas City-sized wall. But as their primary playoff rival falters, does the weight of expectation on Allen’s shoulders lighten? According to Hall of Famer Steve Young, it becomes the heaviest in the entire league.

“I’d say Josh Allen, just because Lamar (Jackson’s), like, they’re not full force yet,” Young told Dan Patrick today about which QB is most under pressure this year for a Super Bowl. “But the Bills and where they’ve been and how they’ve been really representing the NFL in excellence for a while. Josh is special. He does things in the game; he’s perfect for 2025. He’s the prototype Patrick (Mahomes).

“Pressure is a funny thing, because I don’t think he feels that necessarily, just feels like that’s the next mountain to climb. It’s more like, ‘I can’t wait to get to that mountain that I haven’t been able to climb. And I’m gonna get there this time.’ And so I think I would say Josh is the one that probably feels that the most.”

The reigning MVP is also the one dragging Buffalo forward, even when the roster thins out.

Case in point, when he torched the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11. His six total touchdowns in a 44-32 win gave him his second career night with 3 passing and 3 rushing scores. And how can one forget his Week 1 comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens, where he quite literally asked the Bills Mafia to have some faith in him? Well, that faith could help this time around.

Back in January, CBS Sports’ Jeff Kerr had pointed out that the biggest thorn in the Bills’ path is the Chiefs, where Allen stands 0-4 against Mahomes in the playoffs, constantly adding pressure on Allen. Yet, the QB has a new perspective for this year.

“I think every year that I’ve had in this league, it’s like, ‘It’s gotta be Super Bowl, it’s gotta be Super Bowl.’ I think this year, I just want to be like, ‘You know what? I just want to play football, and whatever happens, happens,'” Allen said.

The reigning MVP might have one advantage if he does win the title again, as history backs him.

Ten quarterbacks who have won the MVP award twice or more, before Lamar Jackson, have a Super Bowl ring. From Peyton Manning to Joe Montana to Steve Young to Mahomes, the pattern stays the same. So maybe the door will open for Allen, too. Currently, though, the numbers do not back that hope.

For many outlets, Drake Maye is at the front with -135 odds. The Bills are also 2-2 in their last four games. But over the last week, Allen’s MVP odds fell from +2200 to +2500. So the surrounding pressure does not slow down. It only grows. However, he doesn’t stand alone under the microscope.

ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky believes that same level of pressure lives with the Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson, too, and we can see why. The team has a Super Bowl-winning head coach in John Harbaugh, they have one of the better rosters in football, with their starting secondary mostly of all first-round picks, and Jackson has three MVPs. For Orlovsky, the conclusion is simple:

“At some point, you gotta go win the whole thing.”

However, the parallel between Allen and Lamar Jackson is not even. The Ravens did not have full strength for part of the year, as Jackson missed three games. Meanwhile, Allen played every snap for Buffalo. So, the target on the latter looks bigger. However, it’s worth wondering if the Chiefs’ current status might help the Bills.

Can Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ struggles be an advantage for Josh Allen?

This season, the Chiefs look nothing like the powerhouse that once ruled the AFC. They are 6-6 and struggling to keep up with teams chasing playoff spots. They beat the Colts and the Lions, but they also fell apart against the Chargers and Broncos. However, more than their performance, their biggest issue has been discipline.

The Chiefs have been flagged 37 times for 335 yards in wins and 52 times for 438 yards in losses.

Now, Kansas City sits at .500 through 12 games for the first time since 2017. That year, they slipped into the postseason as a wild card. While they would at least hope for it again, this time, the road is even harder as the schedule becomes even more challenging.

The Chiefs still have to face the Houston Texans, the Chargers, and the Broncos. Those three alone can derail a season. The Bills, Texans, and Jaguars continue to win, pushing Kansas City down to tenth, one spot behind the Steelers. Winning out might be their only path. Even then, they will need to win all the remaining games. So, there is still a chance, but it is thin.

“I mean, our ceiling is playing in the Super Bowl. But at the end of the day, you’ve got to go out and do it on a week-in and week-out basis,” Mahomes said of their struggles. “We can beat anybody. But we’ve shown we can lose to anybody.”

That sums up their whole season. High ceiling. Low floor. So what does this mean for Josh Allen and Buffalo?

If the Chiefs falter, the AFC opens wide. Allen owns seven playoff wins but cannot crack the AFC Championship wall. He is 0-4 against Kansas City and also lost to the Texans and Bengals in the postseason. But without the Chiefs standing in the way, the Bills match up well against most contenders. This could be the chance for Allen to remove the label of a great quarterback who “can’t win the big one.”

Before the season, Allen kept the goal simple.

“Obviously, the main goal is to win the Super Bowl,” he said. “But you got to knock out these little goals before you get to the big goals.”

With the New England Patriots at 11-2 in the AFC East, Buffalo might be a wild card. But they can still chase that big goal.