The first Thursday Night Football game is upon us, and it’s a good one. The Buffalo Bills will unveil Highmark Stadium to the world as they host the Detroit Lions. Two of the NFL’s top teams, and both expect to make deep runs into the postseason in 2026.

Each team narrowly escaped Week 1 with a victory, but the stars of each team made sure to make their presence felt. Josh Allen and Jahmyr Gibbs started the season off with a bang, each having big games to kick off the season. While many will be watching how those players perform, there’s a lot to consider in how these two teams match up.

Here’s a preview of Thursday Night Football and how each team can leave Highmark Stadium with a win.

Bills Usage of 13 Personnel

When something works against one of the best defenses in the NFL, you might want to do it weekly. The NFL is in the midst of a major shift, and we’re getting back to a physical, punishing style of football on the field. Under Joe Brady, it’s been clear the Bills are a run-first team, and against Houston they came out looking to support that.

Buffalo lined up in 13 personnel 40.4 percent of the time, leading the league in Week 1, but they came out in 12 personnel only 7.7 percent of the time. Looking at this Bills roster, they have the tight-end depth to run a heavier game plan like this.

Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes all on the field at the same time is challenging for a defense, especially with Kincaid on the outside mismatch. In Week 1, Kincaid ran 23 routes (second on the team) and had a target share of 21.4 percent (second on the team). He was lights out against the Houston defense, totaling 130 yards on five receptions. When healthy, it’s clear the type of weapon Kincaid can be for this offense; the issue is he hasn’t been able to stay on the field in his career.

For Detroit, they saw 13 personnel on five snaps in Week 1. They allowed an EPA of -0.10 against 13 personnel. It’s a small sample size, but under Kelvin Sheppard in 2025, they saw 13 personnel on 11.2 percent of snaps, the third most in the NFL. They allowed an EPA of 0.075, ranking 25th.

It’ll be key to see how Detroit handles these 13 personnel looks from Buffalo and if they can contain Kincaid and DJ Moore on the outside. Not only do these two pose a challenge, but James Cook also exists.

Will the Lions run a Light Box?

Again, it’s a small sample size, being just one week into the NFL season, but Detroit had a light box 53.5 percent of the time, ranking fifth in the NFL. Now it makes sense; New Orleans doesn’t come out too often in these heavier personnel, but if Detroit keeps playing a lighter box, it could brew trouble.

In 2025, Buffalo faced a light box in 376 snaps and overall averaged 6.91 yards per play with a 48.1 percent success rate. Detroit likely won’t run a light box at a 50 percent rate with the type of offense Buffalo runs, but if they do, it could be a long day for Sheppard and his defense. Detroit will need a big game from its linebacking corps to stop the run and force the Bills into a more one-dimensional offense.

Can the Lions Offense Attack the Bills’ Defensive Looks

The Lions offense has been one of the most efficient recently, even with Ben Johnson leaving for Chicago. Against Buffalo, they’ll face a heavy amount of two-high and zone coverage looks. The key is how new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing handled a two-high look in 2025 with Arizona.

Petzing saw two-high around 50 percent of the time last year with Arizona on passing plays. In those looks, the Cardinals completed about 68 percent of their passes and had an EPA of about -0.07, a slight negative for the offense. Their success rate was about 44 percent, similar to the EPA. Looking at those numbers, you can assume a lot of the completions the Cardinals offense had were short completions that weren’t explosive or efficient.

For Detroit last season, it was the opposite. Against two-high looks, the offense averaged 7.1 yards per play and an EPA of 0.22. While the EPA per play against two-high looks for Detroit is negative so far in 2026, they’ll have a shot to up that rating against Buffalo with how much two-high they run.

Looking at zone, Buffalo ran zone at the 10th-highest rate in the league for Week 1. Detroit against zone in 2025 was 6.39 yards per play and an EPA of 0.05, so it wasn’t as explosive as you’d like. When you merge the two, Detroit’s offense averaged 7.8 yards per play and 0.22 EPA against a two-high look that turned out to be a zone in 2025.

In 2026, it was only for 15 snaps, but it wasn’t as efficient. Detroit had 4.67 yards per play and an EPA of -0.21 against two-high looks that were zone coverage. Expect the Lions to lean on the running game if they’re to get looks like this with Gibbs.