Money tends to follow success, but in Tampa Bay, it seems to be slipping away. With just two weeks left in the season, Baker Mayfield still has his performance incentives hanging in the balance, but the Buccaneers’ recent struggles have put both his earnings and their confidence at risk. What seemed achievable a month ago now feels precarious, and the pressure is mounting on the team.

Mayfield can earn up to $2.5 million in bonuses tied to performance. The incentives are simple on paper. He needs to finish top 10 in the NFL or top five in the NFC in categories like passer rating, touchdown passes, passing yards, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. Each category is worth $500,000. The problem is timing.

Tampa Bay has lost six of its last seven games, and Baker Mayfield’s late-season play has dipped while dealing with a left shoulder injury. He is tied for 11th in the NFL in touchdown passes with 23, just outside the threshold. He ranks 13th in passing yards and is also short. The remaining categories are already out of reach.

That leaves a narrow path. With two strong games in Weeks 16 and 17, Baker Mayfield could still grab $1 million. Anything more than that would require a dramatic shift, both in results and production.

The team context makes it more challenging. Tampa Bay’s playoff odds dropped from 77% to 58% after losing to Carolina. To win the NFC South, the Buccaneers need help and must finish strong. If they fail, the focus may quickly turn to head coach Todd Bowles.

Bowles is feeling the heat. His regular-season record stands at 34-31, with a playoff record of 1-3. Although he’s led the team to the postseason every year since Tom Brady left, the defense has taken a hit, and his decision-making has faced scrutiny. Even making the playoffs might not guarantee his job security.

That uncertainty bleeds into Baker Mayfield’s situation. Incentives depend on opportunity. Opportunity depends on wins. And wins are becoming harder to find.

Right now, Tampa Bay is fighting on two fronts. One is the standings. The other is the future. For Baker Mayfield, the numbers still matter. For Bowles, the results matter more. And with each loss, both the money and the margin shrink.

As Tampa Bay’s path narrows, the focus shifts from bonuses to players, and the defense may finally be getting help.

Buccaneers get late-season boost as Calijah Kancey takes first step toward return

Lately, good news has been hard to come by in Tampa Bay. The losses have been stacking up, and the momentum has been slipping away. But just when it seemed like things couldn’t get any worse, a glimmer of hope appeared right before the season’s final stretch. On Wednesday, the Buccaneers welcomed back a familiar face to the practice field, and this could really change the course of their season.

Defensive lineman Calijah Kancey has returned to practice, officially kicking off his 21-day window to come off injured reserve. This marks his first time back on the field since September, when he suffered a torn pectoral muscle in Week 2 against Houston. At that point, it looked like his season was over.

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Now, that door is back open.

Kancey can practice without counting against the 53-man roster during the three-week window. Tampa Bay can activate him at any point, as long as it creates roster space. In theory, Kancey could return as early as this Sunday against Miami, though no decision has been announced.

The Buccaneers are just 1-6 since the bye week and must win their final two games to clinch the NFC South and reach the playoffs. Any defensive help is welcome.

Kancey was the 19th overall pick in the 2023 draft and quickly became a key interior pass rusher. In 28 career games, he has produced 11.5 sacks and 29 quarterback hits. During the 2024 season, he posted 7.5 sacks in 12 games, along with 28 tackles, 17 QB hits, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.

If activated, Kancey would become the fifth Buccaneers player to return from injured reserve this season. Luke Goedeke, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and Rashad Wisdom have already made it back. Tampa Bay can bring back up to eight players total.

His return would add strength next to Vita Vea and help address the team’s biggest issue: pass rush. For a defense searching for answers, Kancey’s presence could matter fast.

With two games left, Tampa Bay is running out of time. Getting Calijah Kancey back, even briefly, might be the break they needed.