The training camp deadline Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield set is already here, and he doesn’t have a new contract. Mayfield has already expressed his disappointment about this and decided he’s going to be “all ball” as the training camp heats up. But even through all that, Fox’s Colin Cowherd believes Baker doesn’t have what it takes to push his team into the playoffs this year, and it’s all because of how his cap hit affects the team.

“He’s done some really cool things,” Cowherd said on a recent edition of The Herd. “I like Baker Mayfield a lot, but he doesn’t like the fact that the Buccaneers have not given him a new deal, so he’s going to play out his current deal. And I like him, but Baker two years ago was a $7 million cap hit. Last year, he was a $26 million cap hit. This year, he’s a $40 million cap hit. He’s not talented enough to win big with that. His last 25 starts, really good to start. The last 11, he stunk.”

This year, Mayfield’s $39.97M cap hit accounts for 13.27% of the team’s total cap space, a sharp increase from 9.48% in 2025, and just 2.7% the season before. Every year, that number has ballooned, and the Buccaneers have had to make adjustments to build around it.

Cowherd also draws a parallel to Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold, who played on a $13.4M deal that only took 4.8% of their cap space. Seattle had major weapons around him because they got the quarterback on a cheaper deal, and the Seahawks lifted the Lombardi Trophy this February as a result.

Just like Baker Mayfield, Darnold’s current $37.9M cap hit accounts for 12.58% of the team’s cap space, and the Seahawks have had to let marquee players go – including Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker – because they couldn’t afford to break the bank on anyone else. Cowherd believes this is the same reason why the Seahawks won’t win the Super Bowl this year.

“So, seven of the eight highest quarterback cap hits last year missed the playoffs,” Cowherd adds. “[Matthew] Stafford’s the only one that made it, and that’s because the Rams have been on about a four-year stretch where they never miss on draft picks.”

Cowherd makes the same case for Joe Burrow, calling him “the best quarterback in the world” on Sundays, but points to the porous O-line the San Francisco 49ers have not been able to fix. The same logic also applies to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, who have one of the best QBs in the game leading them, and yet haven’t been able to make a mark in the playoffs for seven straight years.

A team-first mentality of taking less so the team can build around you is the ultimate solution for Cowherd. He drops Jalen Brunson, Tim Duncan (NBA stars), and Tom Brady as direct examples of players getting less money while the team builds weapons around them to win. While Cowherd concedes that Bucs’ GM Jason Licht is one of the best in the league, it’s the cap hit that’s bringing his team down.

“The more he makes, the bigger cap hit, the less you have around him,” Cowherd adds.

Apart from Baker Mayfield, LT Tristan Wirfs accounts for a 12.06% cap hit this year ($36.32M), while WR Chris Godwin adds another 11.18% hit with the $33.68M he’s due this year. With more than a hundred million gone on three players alone, the rest of the roster looks like a cheaper unit assembled with no other option on the table. And yet, Cowherd believes the stalled contract negotiations around Mayfield might just be there to bring the best out of him.

“Let me just throw this out, too,” Cowherd notes. “Baker always plays better when he’s got a chip on his shoulder. So some of this may just be premeditated. Baker plays well when he’s angry. He honestly does. … And so, this’ll take him off, and he may have a very good year.”

Whatever the case, other teams in the league are already paying attention. Baker Mayfield has established himself as a franchise quarterback both during his stint with the Cleveland Browns and now with the Buccaneers. If he hits free agency next offseason, he could be one of the hottest commodities on the market. To that effect, his current team-first mentality is only going to help make his case stronger.