Back in June, Baker Mayfield set a deadline: no contract talks once training camp opens. But the camp is just weeks away, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t settled on a number. With the stakes getting higher, NBC Sports’ Mike Florio is warning Tampa Bay that betting on Mayfield’s pride could cost them their quarterback.

The Bucs have been on this road before with Mayfield back in 2023. After his one-year deal expired, they waited on offers to come in, but when nothing concrete was seen, they decided to offer him a three-year $100 million deal. However, he has seen 12 active quarterbacks in the league cross the $ 50 million-a-year threshold, and might not be satisfied with anything less than that. Tampa Bay assumes their offer will stay regardless of Mayfield’s 2026 output, following the same logic that stopped them from franchise tagging Mayfield after the 2023 season. But Mayfield might not make it so easy.

‘This time, the franchise tag (based on a 2026 cap number of $39.975 million) would be at least $47.97 million,” Florio writes. “If the Bucs win the Super Bowl or Mayfield becomes an MVP finalist, they’d be able to tag him for 2027.

“But if Mayfield has a good-not-great year, and if the Bucs play it out with the same belief that they’ll offer him more than anyone else, here’s where Mayfield’s moxie can become a problem for the Bucs: he could take less from another team, just to prove a point.”

Now, when Mayfield had set the training camp deadline for his extension, he’d also noted that if a deal doesn’t go through by then, “we’re still going to have a good year.” Tampa Bay was the first place Mayfield found stability in his football career, and he’s not about to walk away, especially since one more season of waiting (his contract expires after 2026) would push the market higher, and if Mayfield balls out, his bag gets bigger.

The market numbers around him also tell us why he’s digging in. CBS Sports’ Joel Corry believes Daniel Jones’ $88 million, two-year deal with the Colts could be the “starting point for any serious discussions” for Mayfield’s contract. Spotrac projects Mayfield’s market value at a 4-year, $214.4 million deal, giving him $53.6M a year – like a franchise cornerstone.

The current scenario around Baker Mayfield is even more interesting because contract talks falling through was one of the many factors that led to his split with the Cleveland Browns after the 2021 season. He hopped from the Panthers to the Rams before finally finding a home in Tampa. That exit still stings, as Mayfield described it as getting “shipped off like a piece of garbage” earlier this offseason. Former Browns HC Kevin Stefanski had landed the Atlanta Falcons’ top job, and Mayfield chose that moment to issue a challenge to the coach who ended his Cleveland stint, and who was now his divisional rival.

Now, Florio’s warning centers on ego, and not dollars. Tampa Bay has a chance to avoid the mistake the Browns made by letting Baker Mayfield go. However, with training camp set to kick off on July 30th, the biggest question is whether they will pay up before camp or let it drag into next year.