With just one week left in the regular season, many players will go out to earn incentives. And Keenan Allen is right in the middle of it, with $1.5 million on the line. Still, what makes it fun is not the math. Instead, it is a teammate’s joke that suddenly makes Allen think twice about chasing it all.

So while breaking down those incentives, Allen sounded confident. He was not shy about it, saying, “We talking bout a million dollars.”

Then he turned his head toward Trey Lance. Right there, Allen added, “Hey, Trey, we get this six; we’re going out to eat, bro.” Simple deal, but that was not enough for Lance. He pushed it further.

“I need a new car,” Lance said to Allen. Allen did not miss a beat. He fired back, “sh-t I might need to sit this one out.”

Everyone laughed. It was all jokes. Still, the money is very real. And according to this chart from Toad Sports, Allen has four incentives sitting right there if he suits up on Sunday.

There are two incentives that feel reachable. Six receptions and nine receiving yards. With just those, Allen locks in $1 million. That is before even talking about touchdowns. The other two are heavier lifts. Two touchdowns. And 134 receiving yards. That is where things get interesting.

Looking at the season, the picture is clear. Allen has scored four times so far. He also has just one game over 100 yards. That matters. It explains how these incentives were structured. Right now, he sits at 74 receptions. He has 741 yards and has four touchdowns.

So here is the breakdown from that same chart. 80 receptions get him $750k. Six touchdowns add $250k. 750 receiving yards brings another $250k. And 875 yards will add $250k more. If Allen plays, at least one of these should fall his way.

The only question is whether lunch is still enough for Trey Lance.

A look at Keenan Allen’s season

After eleven long seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers, in 2024, Keenan Allen stepped away and joined the Chicago Bears. But it did not click. So, in 2025, Allen came back home. And early on, it felt familiar. But as weeks passed, that spark slowly dimmed.

Now, to be fair, Allen has been available. He suited up for all 15 games. That matters. Early in the season, he looked like the same trusted option Bolt Fam remembers. Smooth routes. Timely catches. However, things shifted. Over the last eight weeks, his numbers dipped hard. He is averaging just 36.1 yards per game.

Then came Week 17 against the Texans. And it summed things up. On a key third down late in the first quarter, Herbert looked his way. The ball hit his hand. It hit the turf, too. That was his only target in the first half. Overall, the season line reads steady but quiet. 74 catches, 109 targets with 741 yards, and four touchdowns. Still, the dry spell stands out. He has not scored since Week 7.

So while this is not as rough as his short Chicago stop, it is still a slide. According to PFSN’s WR Impact metric, this ranks as his second-worst season since 2019. His 75.3 score beats last year’s 71.7. He now sits 46th among receivers. That is a sharp drop from his 86.5 mark in 2023.

Which brings us to Week 18. The $1.5 million incentive is there. The only question is, does Allen play? And if he does, can he finish the job?