It started with Cameron Dicker’s 54-yard field goal sailing through the SoFi Stadium uprights in overtime Monday night. Then Tony Jefferson came in with an interception on the Philadelphia Eagles, and that was it. The Los Angeles Chargers beat the Eagles 22-19, and suddenly, they look even more threatening in the playoff picture.

Here’s where things stand. The Chargers are 9-4, sitting at the No. 5 spot in the AFC. Heading into Week 14, their playoff probability stood at around 67%. As a result, their playoff probability has now increased to 76%. A significant jump for a team that needed this game badly.

But the race is tight. The Buffalo Bills sit at 9-4, too, as the No. 6 seed. Beyond them, the Houston Texans lurk at 8-5 with fresh momentum after upstaging the Kansas City Chiefs this week. The Chargers’ schedule ahead will also determine if they can remain in the playoff picture through the next four weeks. 

The Chargers go up against the Chiefs in Week 15, a massive divisional game considering KC sits at 6-7 and outside the playoff picture. Then they take on the Dallas Cowboys, who are fighting for playoff relevance in the NFC as well. After a flex game with the Texans, Week 18 also presents a last divisional matchup with the Denver Broncos to close out the season.

The Broncos’ finale looms large. Denver’s 11-2 and holding the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Catching them for the division crown seems far-fetched, but the Chargers control their wild-card destiny at the moment. 

Getting a win over Philly created separation from teams on the outside looking in. The Baltimore Ravens and the Chiefs both sit at 6-7, two games back. The only problem is that Los Angeles loses the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Indianapolis Colts, who dropped to 8-5 after Daniel Jones tore his Achilles. Every win matters from here.

The Chargers need to stack wins against quality opponents while hoping the Broncos lose at least one before their face-off in Week 18. With expectations and predictions flipping every single week this season, there could still be a major shake-up in the AFC leaderboard. And it’s perhaps this realization that has kept Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert in the game despite facing major adversity.

Justin Herbert’s fractured run

Justin Herbert played Monday night against the Eagles, eight days removed from surgery. He had a fractured left hand (non-throwing) and took the field anyway.

Herbert’s injury happened in Week 13 when the back of his hand collided with Las Vegas Raiders safety Jeremy Chinn’s helmet. Herbert threw a touchdown pass on the very next play. That’s the kind of toughness head coach Jim Harbaugh has built his team around, and that’s how much Herbert wanted to keep his team in the running.

After beating the Eagles, Harbaugh shared what Herbert told him before the game. The quarterback had noted that the physical pain in his injured hand couldn’t hold a candle to “the mental pain of not practicing.” The way Herbert pulled through left even the head coach in amazement.

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“It felt like we were in a movie where the quarterback is doing these things and you get to the point where you go, ‘OK, this is getting a little unrealistic,’” the head coach said.

That mentality is contagious. Herbert’s resilience set the tone for a gritty performance where the Chargers battled back from a 19-16 deficit late in regulation to send the game into overtime. His presence under center–fractured hand and all–provided the stability Los Angeles needed in a must-win spot.​

The Chargers’ playoff fate comes down to channeling this toughness across the four remaining games. They’ve got the No. 5 seed and a 76% shot at the postseason ahead of Week 15. Their path to January football? Beat good teams, stay healthy, and don’t let any opportunity slip away.