The NFL playoffs might officially kick off in January, but for Andy Reid and the Chiefs, the real postseason battle begins now.

As Week 3 approaches, the Chiefs stand at 0-2 for the first time since 2014. They have to face another desperate team, the New York Giants, with a losing record.

History isn’t on Big Red’s side: teams starting 0-2 have only a 13.3% chance of reaching the playoffs since 2002. Fall to 0-3, and those odds drop to just 3.1%. So, can the Chiefs defy the odds and make it to the playoffs?

So far, it still looks within grasping range. Their chances of making it to the playoffs currently sit at 51.8% according to ESPN’s FPI. 

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But that will keep dipping if Reid and Matt Naggy don’t get a grip of the things

Patrick Mahomes is scrambling twice as much as in past years. He is adding 6.6 expected points per game with his legs alone. And guess what? He is leading the NFL in rushing yards among quarterbacks through the first two games.

Good for him. But what does it say about the offense?

The O-line is making it impossible for Mahomes to sit back, forcing him to lean more on a play he saves just for some crucial moments. But the real problem is the injury plague that has hit KC.

The key weapons, like Xavier Worthy (injured) and Rashee Rice (suspended), under Andy Reid’s watch, leave Mahomes without his usual arsenal.

Travis Kelce, whose effectiveness is waning at 35, has missed pivotal plays near the goal line.

Moreover, the designed run game under Reid’s offense is a mess, ranking 24th in EPA per attempt.

The 2 RBs, Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, haven’t offered any explosive plays.

Deep passes that were once deadly have stalled miserably.

Mahomes is just 3-of-8 on deep throws. He has been missing open receivers more often. Especially that 75-yard touchdown chance against the Eagles in the fourth quarter.

The Chiefs’ trademark third-down conversions, which once hovered near 47%, have crashed to 26th at 34.6%.

Andy Reid’s offense can’t build mismatches like before, with a skills group lacking speed and Kelce slowing down.

At this point, Mahomes’ scrambles are the only salvation, but even Mahomes’ baseball walk won’t be enough to save them long term. An injury to Mahomes while scrambling could derail the team entirely.

Now, Reid has to make tough decisions with a brutal schedule coming up: Ravens, Lions, Commanders, and Bills before Week 10.

It doesn’t look very feasible to win games with such an offense. But the struggles aren’t just limited to the offense; the defense is equally in shambles.

Andy Reid’s defense is under increasing pressure

In the two games this season, KC has ranked 23rd in expected points allowed (EPA) per play and sits near the bottom at 26th in QBR.

Coach Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz-heavy scheme is cracking—third in blitz rate but just 23rd in pressure, leaving even average QBs looking like stars against Reid’s defense.

Injuries have severely affected this defense.

Safety Justin Reid is sidelined. Kristian Fulton, who was expected to shore up pass coverage, has been limited because of an ankle injury.

With a shaky secondary, the Chiefs are giving up a league-worst 11.5 yards per play-action dropback. This is second only to the Bills in vulnerability.

What was once a strength of Reid and Spags’ defense, pressure and turnovers, has slowed down.

In the first few weeks, the defense hasn’t forced a turnover by failing to generate short fields or switches in momentum. An offence that is already struggling to maintain drives is further burdened by this lack of takeout capability.

These flaws are an obstacle for Andy Reid, who has led some of the most successful and well-balanced teams in the league.

With both offense and defense faltering, the nightmare scenario of a derailed season is all too real. Will Reid shift to traditional runs and under-center plays to revive the deep game? Or do the Chiefs risk an early postseason exit if the struggles continue? It’s anyone’s guess for now.