Even before the 2025 season has kicked off, the Kansas City Chiefs’ dynasty is facing a new challenge: oddsmakers are already betting against them for 2026. Predicting anything about the 2026 season before all the roster and management work is done can feel premature, but early forecasts are part of the NFL calendar. The latest of these has something Andy Reid won’t be thrilled to see.

DraftKings released its early odds for division winners in 2026, and for the first time in a while, the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t sitting comfortably atop the AFC West.

Instead, the Chargers have been installed as the favorites at +170, translating to a 37.04 percent implied chance to win the division. Kansas City follows closely behind at +175, with implied odds of 36.36 percent, the Broncos at +215 (31.75 percent), while the Raiders are still a long shot at +2500, carrying just a 3.85 percent implied chance.

The AFC West will be one of the more competitive divisions next year with Justin Herbert on the rise, and the Chargers are expected to enter 2026 with a healthier OL around him. The Broncos will again come with an explosive defense under DC Vance Joseph, and the Raiders are hoping for a new direction under head coach Klint Kubiak.

Kansas City, meanwhile, has a lot of uncertainty to deal with. The Chiefs overhauled parts of their coaching staff, most notably bringing back Eric Bieniemy to run the offense, but that change comes alongside a troubling financial picture. According to Over The Cap, the Chiefs are roughly $54 million over the salary cap as the offseason begins.

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Add in the questions around Patrick Mahomes and his recovery from an ACL tear, including whether he’ll be ready to go by Week 1. The Chiefs cannot afford another mishap at the start of the season, having been 0-2 initially this year.

Of course, odds don’t decide everything, and last season, though one preseason divisional favorite, Philadelphia, actually won its division, many other favorites didn’t make it to the playoffs. The Chiefs themselves are an example of that alongside the Patriots.

Regardless, the fact that Kansas City’s odds have slipped at all is concerning for Andy Reid, who receives a staggering update of where the franchise stands in their division. There are a lot of things that still need to be solved.

Andy Reid has a lot of holes to fill next season

The Kansas City Chiefs are used to being balanced on both sides of the ball, but they showed weaknesses on pretty much every front. Former NFL cornerback Patrick Peterson laid out how concerning things look right now for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball, as we saw last year,” he said on a CBS appearance. “They weren’t able to protect Patrick Mahomes to the best of their ability. I feel like the running game is a missing piece to the puzzle for them. They don’t really have that deep threat.”

Protection was a problem this year. Despite never crossing the twenties until last year, Mahomes was sacked 34 times this season, only two fewer than the 36 he took the year before (a career-high number), but it felt worse this time around because other areas around him weren’t holding up.

Last season, Mahomes and the receivers were able to perform despite the lack of protection, so it didn’t really come into focus, but the problem was evident this season.

The lack of ground game was equally concerning, and the production from the backfield was not good enough. Kareem Hunt was expected to be a steady presence and push past the 1,000-yard mark, but he finished with 611 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, leaving the offense a lot more one-dimensional.

Additionally, backs like Breece Hall, Javonte Williams, Rico Dowdle, and Kenneth Walker are all set to become free agents in a month, but bringing in that kind of help isn’t going to be uncomplicated. With one of the worst cap situations in the league, they need to restructure Mahomes’ contract.

The star shot-caller is scheduled to carry a $78 million cap charge for 2026, accounting for 25.74 percent of the total space. Until his contract is reworked, the Chiefs’ options are limited, and any pursuit of a top running back or even a receiver starts there.

The Chiefs haven’t produced a 1,000-yard wide receiver in three seasons, which shouldn’t be the case with Mahomes under center. Rashee Rice has shown flashes of being a No. 1 option, but his off-field issues have set him back and might continue to do so.

In the vertical game, TE Travis Kelce’s future is still undecided, and depending on whether he returns or walks away, Kansas City may soon be forced to think about the next answer at tight end.