Patrick Mahomes will potentially face his first playoff drought as the Chiefs fell hard to the Texans in a 10-20 loss last week. Chiefdom feels that sting deep in their bones. But a deep dive into the AFC standings reveals a narrow, treacherous path to the postseason still exists. The Chiefs remain mathematically alive. 

“The Kansas City Chiefs can still make the playoffs,” Max Loeb, a content creator, pointed out in his analysis. “Right now, they’re sitting at about a 13% chance of making it. Priority number one is winning out.”

The Chiefs sit at 6-7 right now. Pro Football Talk ranks them tenth in the AFC after Thursday night football. Two wild-card teams block Mahomes’ path ahead. The Chargers are fifth at 9-4. The Bills are sixth at 9-4, too. Yet KC’s remaining slate offers real shots. 

They host the Chargers next, then they travel to Tennessee before returning home for a matchup against the Broncos, and close the season at the Raiders. Arrowhead Stadium gives them a massive edge, as the Chiefs boast three straight home wins over the Chargers and an incredible nine straight home victories against the Broncos. 

At 5-2 on their home turf this season, a clean 4-0 sweep lands them at 10-7. That record punches a playoff ticket if rivals stumble just right. They must win out first and foremost.

“But in week 15, all they need is Seattle to beat Indianapolis,” explained Max. “Moving to week 16, they need two things: Dallas over Los Angeles, potentially the hardest game on this slate, and then San Francisco over Indy. Week 17, they need nothing. Then in week 18, all they need is Houston over Indy, and Denver over the Chargers.”

The Chiefs can still go 3-1 and claw into the postseason dance. They hit 9-8 or even 10-7 that way. The Chargers must finish 10-7 or worse to open the door. Their schedule runs through Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, and Denver. The Chiefs demand losses to them and the Broncos specifically. So, one loss won’t completely seal their fate, but it does narrow their path, especially if that stumble comes against the Titans.

If Patrick Mahomes loses one more game, will the playoff hopes be lost?

Max Loeb also laid out the worst 3-1 scenario in detail. Well, actually, the worst scenario would be 0-4 for Mahomes, but let’s not even go there.

“If they lose to Tennessee, there’s a chance they get in if these three things happen,” said Max. “Miami finishes 3-1 with an AFC loss, or 2-2. Baltimore finishes 3-1, or worse, but loses to Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh loses two games, but still beats Baltimore.”

Right now, the Dolphins roll hot at 6-7. They just snapped a four-game win streak that included the 9-4 Bills. However, the cold weather looms large. Tua Tagovailoa holds zero wins under 40 degrees. So, trips to Pittsburgh and New England test that weakness. They drop at least one for sure. That AFC loss drops Miami’s conference record. It falls below the Chiefs’ potential 7-5 AFC mark with three wins. Tiebreakers swing Kansas City’s way clean.

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The Ravens sit at 6-7 and could go 3-1, but they face tough opponents like the Steelers, who just beat them badly at home. The Colts are 8-5 with the hardest schedule left and no Daniel Jones, so 9-8 is their ceiling. Chiefs hold head-to-head wins and a 7-5 AFC record to break three-team ties.

Right now, Mahomes faces over an 80% chance of missing the playoffs. But for Andy Reid, this would mark just his second miss since 2014.