The Jacksonville Jaguars roll into MNF at 3-1. The Kansas City Chiefs, meanwhile, are sitting at a very un-Chiefs-like 2-2. On paper, it’s a compelling matchup. But history whispers a different story, a brutal one for the Jaguars, who have dropped 8 straight to the Chiefs.

And as if that wasn’t enough spice, the whole affair is framed by last week’s sideline shouting match involving head coach Liam Coen, and the subsequent, knowing shrug from Chiefs HC Andy Reid. So now we’ve got a rivalry, a curse, and 2 coaches in the spotlight for very different reasons as they amp up for MNF. Perfect.

Andy Reid addresses the sign-stealing saga

The whole spat started after the Jaguars registered their first ever win in San Francisco. Niners DC Robert Saleh paid Jaguars coach Liam Coen what he thought was a compliment, calling his staff’s preparation “legally, a really advanced signal-stealing type system.” Coen didn’t take it that way. After the game, cameras caught him shouting, “Keep my name out of your f***ing mouth.” The heated exchange even got a reaction from Chiefs TE Travis Kelce. Saleh walked it back, clarifying he meant “film study.”

“Obviously, I did a poor job with the words. If I said film study, I don’t think we’re really talking about this,” Saleh said via the San Francisco Chronicle. “These guys are the best in the world, and that’s why they’re there.”

And then there was Andy Reid. The Chiefs’ head coach, a man who has seen it all, gave a verbal shrug. “If you’re going to put a sign out there,” he said, “…guys are going to look at it and kind of sneak it from you. The headsets have kind of taken a bit away from that,” he said, per Charles Goldman of A to Z Sports. Now, whether this saga will have yet another chapter added to it come Monday is something that only time will tell.

Defensive strength: Jacksonville’s turnover edge

Jaguars’ defense is the real deal. They lead the entire league in takeaways (9 INTs, 4 fumble recoveries) and are only giving up about 18 points a game. That turnover margin is terrifying. The run defense unit is allowing only 82.8 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry, ranking 4th and 8th.

The rub for Jacksonville? The Chiefs have suddenly become allergic to giveaways, with only one turnover through their first four games. This game hinges on whether the Jaguars’ defense, led by linebacker Devin Lloyd, who already has 3 INTs, can finally force Patrick Mahomes into a mistake.

Offense re-emerging: The Chiefs are waking up

For Kansas City, the offense is starting to look like its old self again. The return of Xavier Worthy gives them the field-stretcher they’ve desperately needed, and it’s opened everything up. Moreover, Tyquan Thornton, the former Patriot, is having a career renaissance, with 10 receptions for 182 yards and 3 TDs.

While his game time may go down with Rashee Rice due back soon, it proves the engine is humming again. Mahomes is coming off a 4-TD performance against Baltimore, and if he finds his rhythm early, not even Jacksonville’s stingy defense might be able to stop him.

Players to watch

This game is littered with talent that could swing the outcome. For Jacksonville, it all starts with Trevor Lawrence. He’s put up 845 yards so far, but the 5 TDs to 4 INTs ratio tells the other side of the story. He has to manage the Chiefs’ pressure and avoid the critical mistake. He’ll lean heavily on the team’s run game, which is fourth in the NFL with 576 rushing yards. That means Travis Eitenne Jr. (394 yards) will be under the spotlight. And so will Bhayshul Tuten, who has run for 88 yards and a TD.

For the Chiefs, the aforementioned Xavier Worthy is the deep threat who changes the geometry of their offense. And for an honorable mention, you have Jacksonville’s dual-threat wild card, Travis Hunter, who’s already making his presence felt with 118 receiving yards on offense and 11 tackles on defense.

Fantasy advice

The clearest angle here is again in the run game. The Jaguars have a certified workhorse in Travis Etienne Jr.. He’s averaging a blistering 98.5 yards on the ground and facing a Chiefs run defense that’s been gashed for 127.0 yards per game.

The over/under on his rushing prop is a tempting 61.5 yards; he’s cleared that in 3 of 4 games this season. If you’re looking for a solid play, Etienne feels like the safest bet on the board.

So, who wins? The betting lines favor the Chiefs by an FG, but this one feels like a coin flip. And then there are injury concerns. The Jaguars have never, not once, beaten Patrick Mahomes. 

That being said, it’s been a different season for Mahomes so far. Want to know how? Check out EssentiallySports’ analysis.