The Kansas City Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes’ form is directly linked to the franchise’s success. As their signal caller, his pass accuracy improved by 14.8% (~15%) while scoring 12 touchdowns and 1 interception in the last 5 games (from weeks 3-7). That helped them shed the weight of two season-opening losses and win 4 of those 5 games. But they need to be more careful from now on, as their path to the playoffs isn’t easy at all.

According to the New York Times computer, which simulated 100k situations about the Chiefs’ remaining season, they have an 87% chance of qualifying for the postseason. But it also projected triple failures for the AFC West franchise, predicting a final regular-season record of 11-6.

Currently, they are third in their division with a 4-3 record after 7 games. So, they are predicted to lose 3 more games according to the computer. However, that is no reason for the Chiefs Kingdom to be disappointed. Why?

The NYT computer predicted a 48% chance of Patrick Mahomes‘ team winning the division, the highest among the 4 AFC West teams. It gave them a 14% probability of getting a first-round bye. But the biggest of them was the chance of winning a Super Bowl.

According to the simulations, the Chiefs have a 12% chance of winning the Super Bowl this year. Even the Super Bowl LIX defending champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, received a 9% chance. But the 2025 season has a different threat.

The top team in the AFC conference, also sitting atop the AFC South, is the Indianapolis Colts. They also got a 12% chance of winning Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, California. The Colts are the only team with 6 wins in the league currently.

But for now, let’s check out the Chiefs’ remaining season to find out the games that might have a nail-biting finish.

Patrick Mahomes & co. have a tough schedule

To find out which games will thoroughly examine their roster strength, let’s start with a simple number. Pick those teams that have more wins than losses after week 7.

Patrick Mahomes and his team have 10 more games to go. 4 of their rival teams have won more games than they have lost. These are – Buffalo Bills (week 9), Denver Broncos (week 11 and 17), Colts (week 12), and Los Angeles Chargers (week 15). So, out of 10 games to play to secure a playoff spot, these 5 will be tough.

However, two more teams from the NFC East might upset them if they don’t play at 100%. The Washington Commanders will play them in Week 8, while Patrick Mahomes will face off against the Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott in Week 13. There’s another angle.

If the Chiefs defeat those four teams that have performed well this year (have more wins than losses), they will have a much better chance of qualifying for the playoffs. Here’s what the NYT simulation predicted.

Patrick Mahomes will secure a 93% chance of playing in the playoffs with a week 9 win against the Bills. But he risks an 80% chance of not making the playoffs if they lose. The probability of playing in the postseason remains the same with the Week 11 win against the Broncos, but the risk drops to 79% if they lose.

If they lose against the Cowboys, the risk rises to 70%. But if Patrick Mahomes defeats the NFC East franchise, he will have a 91% chance of playing in the postseason.

Well, these are just predictions, which are based on different outcomes. However, the real result will depend on their performance. The receiving corps, rushing team, and defense also need to play well. Showtime has carried them enough, but he also needs support.