The margin of error is running out in the city of Kansas, but belief inside the city hasn’t vanished yet. After their 20–10 loss to the Houston Texans in Week 14, the Kansas City Chiefs sit at 6–7, clinging to fading playoff hopes. Still, Patrick Mahomes’ mother, Randi Mahomes, isn’t ready to give up on the Chiefs’ playoff hopes.

During a rapid-fire series in her Home For the Holidays event, Randi was asked if Santa Claus would bring a win for the Chiefs this weekend.

“Santa is gonna kill it and make it happen,” she beamed. “Let’s go Santa we’re gonna win.”

For the Chiefs, a Week 14 loss to Houston wasn’t a dream-killer, even if, all these weeks later, the odds keep getting steeper.

The Chargers average 24.2 points per game to Kansas City’s 23, but both offenses fall inside the top 12 in total yardage. The Chiefs have a considerable advantage in terms of passing production thanks to Mahomes.

The Chargers are at league-best possession, 33:13 per game. On the other hand, Kansas City’s defense has struggled for consistency in terms of takeaways, ranking just 21st in interceptions. Those contrasts underlined how thin the margin will be on Sunday, and why belief alone won’t be enough.

The formula to win in Kansas City isn’t complex, but it sure isn’t easy: The Chiefs have got to stop beating themselves. Drops. Penalties. Missed assignments. Late defensive lapses. It has been the story of too many losses this season. Mahomes has been forced into uncomfortable pockets, and while he still stays elite, even he cannot thrive with constant pressure and breakdowns.

The Chiefs must also finish stronger on defense, particularly in the fourth quarter. The chilly weather and deafening atmosphere will be on their side, but only if the Chiefs take care of the football and remain disciplined, two areas where they have betrayed themselves all too often.

And if that wasn’t enough, the injury report continues to add up: wide receiver Hollywood Brown (out for personal reasons), and three of their most important offensive linemen-Wanya Morris, Jawaan Taylor, and Trey Smith-are added onto cornerback Trent McDuffie, who remains questionable with a knee injury.

Chiefs vs Chargers: A season on the line

There’s more at stake than just one game. For the first time in nine years, the Kansas City Chiefs have officially been eliminated from winning the AFC West. It’s a foregone conclusion that used to be the end of their reign atop the division, only after the loss to Houston, a symbolic moment that, therefore, only truly underlined just how different this season has been.

Still, though, the playoff hopes are there, just barely. At 6–7, Kansas City is not mathematically eliminated, yet the margin is razor-thin. The Chiefs have only a 9.1% chance of reaching the postseason, according to projections.

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“We know the (playoff) chances are getting lower and lower,” Mahomes said after the Texans’ loss. “But I know the guys on this team are going to give everything they have, every opportunity we get.”

The Texans, Bills, and Jaguars have head-to-head tiebreakers over Kansas City. Realistically, any path moving forward necessitates some help and near perfection.

The most likely scenario also gives playoff spots to Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Houston, which would leave the Chiefs fighting with the Chargers, Colts, Dolphins, and Ravens. For now, though, belief precedes results.

Randi Mahomes has made her Christmas prediction. Whether Santa delivers may depend less on magic and more on whether Kansas City finally plays like the team it is known for.