For years, Patrick Mahomes has been fantasy managers’ trusted quarterback for close to a decade. Even when the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense was stuck, his talent and ability kept his fantasy floor alive. But as we head into the 2026 season, one major part of his game can be very different, and that has led to an unexpected evaluation of his fantasy value.

“To be very clear, nobody is saying Patrick Mahomes is anywhere close to the 15th-best quarterback in the NFL,” said NFL insider Field Yates on ESPN. “I have him a little bit higher in my fantasy rankings, but that number 15 ranking overall is not that crazy of a thought, and there’s a very specific reason.”

Fantasy football rewards production, not reputation, and Mahomes’ value is dependent on his ability to add points. In 2025, he produced 3,587 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 422 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns in only 14 games.

That rushing production was very significant. The Chiefs QB averaged 22.7 fantasy points per game in 2025, while his 422 rushing yards represented a career high. He also scored five rushing touchdowns, giving fantasy managers an additional source of production. And that leads to a concern around his 2026 outlook.

“Greeny (Mike Greenberg), you may recall that last year Patrick Mahomes was running for his life. As a matter of fact, he scored the fourth most fantasy points per game of any quarterback last year just using his legs. He’s now coming off of a major knee injury. Patrick Mahomes will not be running nearly as much in 2026 as he did last season,” Yates added on Get Up, ESPN.

Mahomes coming off an injury already makes that prediction relevant. He suffered a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee during the Chiefs’ Week 15 loss to the Chargers. Though he has recovered well in his rehabilitation, questions remain about how much mobility he will be using once actual games begin.

For fantasy managers, even a small reduction in rushing could make a meaningful difference. Mahomes’ 2025 rushing numbers elevated his overall fantasy output. If he becomes more conservative as a runner, he will need to make it up by producing more consistently with his passing brilliance.

The Chiefs have added running back Kenneth Walker III, giving the offense more reliable rushing options and trying to lower the pressure on Mahomes to make yards himself. Meanwhile, tight end Travis Kelce stays in the offense, and wide receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy provide additional strength in their receiving corps.

Still, ranking Mahomes at No. 15 should not be interpreted as a prediction that he suddenly becomes an average QB. If his knee limits his rushing, fantasy managers may no longer receive the same dual-threat production that made him stand out from others.

For the same reasons, the Kansas City Chiefs are more focused on making sure that their star QB is fully ready before taking the next step.

Chiefs Are Taking No Chances With Patrick Mahomes’ Return

Chiefs have taken a cautious approach, which was quite noticeable during training camp. NFL insider Dan Graziano explained that the Kansas City has avoided putting Mahomes in any situation where his recovered knee could face damage.

The strategy makes sense given Mahomes’ surgery after injuries in December. The QB was fully cleared for training camp in July, but HC Andy Reid has stressed caution and daily evaluation.

“Mahomes seems ready for it. When I was there, Greeny (Mike Greenberg), he was testing the thing out, trying to see if he could move around, throw, you know, move around to his left and throw, move around to his right and throw, try and see if he has all the strength back in that. But so far, he has checked every box,” said Graziano.

Reid has been reluctant to push Mahomes into preseason action, even as the QB has shown his will to return. So far, the QB’s goal has repeatedly been to be ready for Week 1, and now his knee is feeling great.

The Chiefs need Mahomes healthy enough to handle the demands of a full NFL season, and at some point, they have to allow him to move naturally again. The biggest challenge will be whether he can trust his knee enough to play like Mahomes again.