After getting blown out in Week 1 by the Baltimore Ravens, the Indianapolis Colts responded by playing a tight contest against the Kansas City Chiefs, albeit a game they lost in overtime. They have a tough schedule ahead of them, as six of their next seven games are against teams who find themselves in must-win situations. And most of those games will be played without their top receiver. The result of this stretch will go a long way in deciding the future of the franchise.

The overtime loss to the Chiefs on Sunday evening also resulted in the loss of Alec Pierce, the Colts’ playmaking receiver who signed a big extension in the offseason. As I wrote immediately before Week 1, the team intended to ease Pierce back into the rotation after his practice time was limited coming off the PUP list. He was originally put on the list after undergoing surgery on his ankle and heel in late March.

During Sunday’s game, Pierce aggravated the surgically repaired heel, and he is now on injured reserve. Sources close to the situation tell me that Pierce will be out 4-to-6 weeks, which is a bit of a relief. The immediate thought after the injury was that the receiver had suffered an Achilles injury and possibly torn the tendon, which would’ve shelved him for the season. Now there’s hope he’ll be available for much of the second half of 2026.

Multiple people with ties to the franchise told me that the results over the next two months will go a long way in determining the future of Chris Ballard, the team’s general manager since 2017. As one source told me, 2026 is a “win-or-out” season for Ballard.

After an 8-2 start last season, the Colts collapsed, losing their final seven games and missing the playoffs despite trading away a pair of first-round picks in November for cornerback Ahmad Gardner to shore up the defense. Major investments were made this offseason, and besides the four-year, $114 million contract extension for Pierce, Ballard kept quarterback Daniel Jones with a two-year, $88 million deal.

Some around the league speculate that owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon has handcuffed Ballard. She’s been seen around the team and on the field taking notes, and many believe that if the team can’t turn it around and Ballard is inevitably let go, the results, as well as the notebook, will offer the reasons why.

Ballard is well-liked around the league by just about everyone I’ve spoken with, but the quarterback position has admittedly been his Achilles heel. There’s been little consistency at the position after the somewhat unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck in August 2019. Signal callers who had success, such as Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Gardner Minshew (limited as it was with the latter pair), were one and done with the organization. Then there was the disastrous decision to use the fourth pick of the 2023 draft on Anthony Richardson. As season number four gets underway for Richardson, he’s started just 15 games and completed less than 51% of his passes.

The Colts must find a way to quickly turn it around, as after difficult games in Weeks 3 through 10, the last two months of their schedule look tough as well. If things don’t go well, the expectations are the owner will clean house in the front office. One source who I spoke with after I thought I had finished the article said he believes there’s “no way” Ballard, as well as the rest of the staff and front office make it to 2027.