The Cowboys head into Week 6 at 2-3, with a Sunday night trip to Green Bay next and a Monday night game against the Eagles after that. Coming off a 7-9-1 season that kept them out of the playoffs, they have little room left for error. Dallas doesn’t need perfection, but it does need a specific number of wins to reach January.
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The question for the next two months is whether this is a flawed team that can be fixed or a familiar one that has used up its margin for error. The answer is yes, the season can be saved. The path is narrow, though, and Dallas has to stop beating itself first.
What Do the First Five Games Actually Tell Us?
Dallas has played five games in 2026 and sits at 2 wins and 3 losses. It started with a 28-20 loss to the New York Giants, where the defense gave up almost 400 yards.
Week 2 brought the first win, a 37-20 victory over the Washington Commanders. The offense rolled up 332 yards, and the defense held Washington to 20 points.
Then came Week 3, which stung. The Cowboys lost 34-31 to the Baltimore Ravens in a shootout. Dallas moved the ball well with 415 total yards, but it couldn’t get a stop when it needed one.
Week 4 went the other way. Dallas won 34-30 on the road against the Houston Texans, piling up 399 yards, with the passing game doing most of the heavy lifting.
Last Thursday night, the Cowboys dropped a 24-16 game to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The offense gained 366 yards, but three turnovers did real damage.
So the pattern is easy to see. The offense scores and moves the ball, but the defense gives up too many yards, and turnovers have cost Dallas in tight games. Three of the five games were decided by 8 points or fewer, which means this team isn’t far from a better record if it cleans those things up.
Games That Will Decide If Dallas Cowboys Can Make the NFL Playoffs
With a 2-3 record, four games between now and late December could decide whether this season survives. The first is the trip to Philadelphia on October 26. It’s one of the tougher matchups on the schedule, so a win would be a bonus, but it would give the division hopes a real boost.
The second is the Thanksgiving Day rematch with the Eagles at home on November 26. Dallas can’t afford to lose this one. Getting swept by Philadelphia would almost certainly sink the season, and both teams will be playing on a short week.
After that comes a Monday night game at Seattle on December 7 against the defending Super Bowl champions. That looks like another likely loss, but a win would be a big help if Dallas has taken care of business elsewhere. The last big test is the Rams game on December 20, the final tough matchup on the schedule.
Depending on the standings by then, the Cowboys could be fighting to stay alive or trying to clinch a spot. The main point is that Dallas can’t get swept by Philadelphia, and the road games at Seattle and Los Angeles will be the hardest tests.
What Are the Cowboys’ Playoff Chances?
The Athletic’s simulator has Dallas at a 40% chance to make the playoffs with 12 games to go. Most of the games that swing that number are against NFC East rivals, which makes sense when you think about how much the division race matters.
The big one is the trip to Philadelphia. If Dallas wins, its playoff chances climb to 54%. If it loses, they drop to 27%, which is a huge gap for a single game.
The Thanksgiving home game against the Eagles is right behind it. A win there puts the Cowboys at 51%, while a loss leaves them at just 25%. Either way, the Eagles will have a lot to say about how this season turns out.
The January 3 game against the Giants matters just about as much. If Dallas wins, its playoff odds sit at 48%, and if it loses, they fall to 23%. Then comes the Washington finale on January 10, where the odds go from 51% with a win down to 28% with a loss.
Even next week’s trip to Green Bay carries real weight, since a win puts the Cowboys at 50% and a loss leaves them at 31%. There isn’t really a throwaway game left on this schedule.
It’s also worth remembering that 26% of teams that started 2-3 from 2020 through 2025 eventually made the playoffs.
Conclusion
The Cowboys aren’t a lost cause, but they aren’t comfortable either. The offense is good enough to win games, and the losses have been close. What holds them back is a leaky defense and costly turnovers. If Dallas fixes those, wins the key NFC East games, and avoids a sweep by the Eagles, the playoffs are still within reach. If not, this will end up as another season of what might have been.