After finishing 30th in total defense (377 YPG) and 32nd in passing defense (251.5 YPG), it was clear that the Dallas Cowboys needed a defensive overhaul. For the most part, the Cowboys eyed Ohio State’s safety, Caleb Downs; hosted him during their top-30 pre-draft visit, and likewise picked him at No. 11 in the draft.

Being one of the top prospects, expectations are already high for him, with some even claiming him to be a Defensive Rookie of the Year prospect. However, that might not be true. According to ESPN’s Ben Solak, the Cowboys do have a DROY candidate, but it is not Downs. Instead, he pointed to another first-round pick, who has the potential to win the title.

The Cowboys’ 23rd pick, edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, is believed to be a better fit to win the DROY in the upcoming season. But why him over Downs? Since 2000, 22 DROYs have been won by first-rounders. Though both Downs and Lawrence are eligible, the Cowboys selected the former earlier in the draft.

There are two reasons behind Downs having fewer chances. First, Downs is a safety, and no safeties have won the DROY since the Chicago Bears‘ Mark Carrier in 1990. And second, in the last seven seasons, five pass rushers have won the title (Jared Verse, Will Anderson, Micah Parsons, Chase Young, Nick Bosa), in addition to one LB and CB each (Carson Schwesinger and Sauce Gardner).

Even Solak, who listed the potential OPOY and DPOY candidates, left out safety and included Lawrence as one of “The long shots.” But there is one issue with Lawrence. Being a rookie, he may not be the starter, especially with second-year player Donovan Ezeiruaku and trade acquisition Rashan Gary in the mix.

It remains unclear how many snaps the DE will play for the Cowboys in his rookie year. But with the Cowboys hiring Christian Parker as defensive coordinator, it leaves a little chance for him to play a few snaps, if not many. Furthermore, Lawrence’s explosive speed and access to every-down opportunities, when contrasted with late first-round pass rushers, position him as a potential sleeper.

At UCF, he recorded 72 tackles, 28 tackles for loss, 29 sacks, 5 pass deflections, and 3 forced fumbles in 39 games. While these stats certainly show that he has the potential to win the Defensive Player of the Year, he needs to tick a few boxes to ultimately win.

Malachi Lawrence’s path to the DPOY won’t be easy

First of all, putting Malachi Lawrence in front of Caleb Downs in the Defensive Player of the Year race is a controversial take in itself. Even if it does hold some logic, the former will need to be at his absolute best to win it. Based on the records for the last five pass rushers who won the DPOY, they averaged 8.2 sacks in their rookie season.

So, that is a number that Lawrence should be aiming for. However, even if he crosses that number and reaches the double digits in sacks, he can still miss out. As much as it is an individual award, it also focuses on collective effort as well. Jared Verse, Will Anderson, Micah Parsons, Chase Young, and Nick Bosa had a good defense to support them.

But considering the Cowboys’ last season’s performance, this year, they need to do better. If not, Lawrence will likely miss the DPOY even if he gets more than 10 sacks. But with the franchise making several additions to the roster, it looks like they are ready to tackle the upcoming season.

Regardless, DPOY is not something the Cowboys should be worried about. They missed the playoffs in the last two seasons. So, being a Super Bowl contender is what they will likely focus on. However, playing for America’s Team does come with a lot of expectations.

Although not a necessity, winning the award will certainly fulfil some expectations. Maybe Malachi Lawrence will bring the award to Dallas, following Parsons’ footsteps, or maybe Caleb Downs, against all odds, will become the first safety in almost four decades to win it.