It’s official, folks. The Minnesota Vikings have named Kyler Murray their starting quarterback for the 2026 season before the preseason even began.

I don’t find the announcement all that surprising, but I was pretty shocked that Kevin O’Connell made this decision before the preseason even began. I expected this battle to rage through the preseason, especially because reports have said neither quarterback has been able to separate themselves thus far in training camp. It feels like this decision was made the moment Minnesota signed Murray, but they didn’t want to do their third-year, former top-10 quarterback dirty.

With the announcement, one of the four quarterback battles has officially been decided. The Cleveland Browns, Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders are yet to announce their starter – though the latter is expected to start Kirk Cousins – so we still have a few more battles to look forward to this preseason.

I, and most other people in the NFL world, expected Murray to be named the starter, but now it’s official. But how much does he really raise Minnesota’s ceiling?

J.J. McCarthy’s NFL Career

Before we get into Murray, let’s talk about the man he just beat out in camp: J.J. McCarthy.

When McCarthy was coming out of Michigan, he was a very divisive prospect. Some thought he was worthy of a top-10 pick, but many believed he was extremely overrated as a prospect, given the Wolverines won the National Championship largely on the back of their run game and defense, not their passing attack.

Despite that, the Vikings made McCarthy the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He was in a battle with Sam Darnold to be the starter, but after tearing his meniscus in the preseason, McCarthy missed his entire rookie year while Darnold led Minnesota to a 14-3 record and the 2-seed in the NFC while throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns.

Even though Darnold took the Vikings to heights they hadn’t reached since 2019, they let him walk in free agency in order to make McCarthy their starter. The second-year man’s season started hot with a come-from-behind victory over their NFC North rivals, the Chicago Bears, but after that, things fell apart. He missed seven games due to injury and finished the year with an 11 to 12 touchdown to interception ratio. Meanwhile, Darnold led the Seattle Seahawks to a Super Bowl victory in his first year with the team.

The Vikings obviously regretted their decision to let Darnold go, so they went out and did what they did in 2024 – signed a former top pick to a one-year deal in hopes that he can come in and bring them back to the playoffs.

While McCarthy’s NFL journey is far from over, it appears many of the pre-draft scouts were right about him. He’s not capable of being a starter in this league.

How Does Kyler Murray Raise Their Ceiling?

When Kyler Murray is healthy and on the field, he can be a special player. The problem is, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy in recent years.

Murray has now played seven seasons in the NFL, but he’s only played 14+ games in four of them. But during those seasons, Murray averages 3,832 passing yards, 590 rushing yards (4,421 total yards), 23 passing touchdowns and six rushing touchdowns (29 total touchdowns) per year. If you told me my starting quarterback was guaranteed to total 4,400 yards and 29 touchdowns every year, I’d take it in a heartbeat.

But like I said, the problem is his health. Since 2021, Murray has played more than 11 games just one time. He’s missed 27 of a possible 68 games during that span with ACL, hamstring and foot injuries. If he can stay healthy, he can be an asset for this team, but history shows that may not be very likely.

But let’s just say Murray is healthy, then what does he bring to the table?

Well, he’s an underrated passer. People love to talk about his legs, but his career completion percentage of 67.1 percent ranks fifth all-time. And no, that’s not a typo. He’s ahead of guys like Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

He’s also an excellent runner. He’s never had fewer than 423 yards in a season where he’s played 14+ games, and he’s even had 5+ rushing touchdowns in three of those four years. We know how important it is to have a quarterback who can run in the NFL, and while McCarthy could use his legs when he needed to, Murray is much more mobile.

With guys like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison out wide, there’s no reason to believe that Murray couldn’t succeed in Kevin O’Connell’s offense if he stay healthy. O’Connell has proven he’s a bit of a quarterback whisperer (except for when it came to McCarthy), so if Murray is on the field, I expect he’ll outperform everyone’s projections.