The New England Patriots traded for Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown. Does it eliminate them from the discussion of being a team that regresses in 2026? First, we have to discuss why they’re even being labeled as candidates.

Media and fans alike spend time throughout the offseason trying to find teams that could take a step back from a previously successful season — typically, it’s a Super Bowl team.

In the 2024 season, the Kansas City Chiefs made the Super Bowl, and in 2025, they went 6-11. The San Fransicsio 49ers made it to the Super Bowl the prior year and went 6-11 the following year. It doesn’t happen to every team that makes the Super Bowl, but it’s a good starting point.

Other teams that regress are typically the ones that win a ton of one-score games. The Chiefs were like this in 2024 and couldn’t replicate the same late-game success in 2025.

The Schedule and One-Score Games in 2025

The Patriots in 2025 went 7-3 in one-score games and obviously, made the Super Bowl. Those are two main indications that could lead to a regression in 2026. The schedule is another talking point. In 2025, New England had the third-easiest schedule before the season started, behind the New Orleans Saints and the 49ers. Going into 2026, they have the sixth-hardest schedule based on opponents’ win percentage.

Even with the easier schedule, you expect teams that are making Super Bowl runs to dominate lesser teams. The Patriots didn’t exactly do that. First off, one of the three losses a season ago was to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1. Throughout the season, they had one-score games against the Miami Dolphins, the Saints, the Atlanta Falcons and the Cincinnati Bengals (without Joe Burrow).

It’s not the teams’ fault that they had the luxury of facing the Saints, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and Falcons all in a row; it’s just something to point out. It won’t be the case in 2026. New England has four road games to start off next season in Seattle, Jacksonville, and Buffalo. They’ll also travel to Chicago, Kansas City and Los Angeles to face the Chargers and host teams like the Packers, Broncos and the Vikings.

Super Bowl Hangover?

It’s a common saying among teams that have made a Super Bowl, but looking at the two examples above, there’s some correlation.

Health.

The 49ers seem to be plagued by injuries every season, and in 2024, that was no different. They lost Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Brandon Aiyuk and Nick Bosa at various points during the season. Last year, the Chiefs lost Patrick Mahomes in the back half of the season and other key players throughout the season. Their case was more of a close regression, going 1-9 in one-score games in 2025.

Health is something Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel knows he can’t control. One thing he can do is address the roster. Teams can get complacent after making a Super Bowl run, but the Patriots have seriously improved it from last season.

Offseason Improvements

The main holes the Patriots had were in the receiver room, offensive line, and edge rusher room. They added or solved each of those problems going into 2026.

New England needed more juice off the edge, but wasn’t willing to pay K’Lavon Chaisson, who had a breakout year for them last season. The team drafted Gabe Jacas and signed Dre’Mont Jones, who fit what Vrabel looks for in his edge rushers.

Patriots quaterback Drake Maye got sacked 21 times in the postseason; they only played four games. It set an NFL record, breaking Burrows’ record of 19 a couple of years ago. That’s not the type of history the Patriots want to make, so they went out this offseason and signed Alijah Vera-Tucker and drafted Caleb Lomu. Tucker will likely start right away, with Lomu being more of a project behind right tackle Morgan Moses.

To come back to the central question of this article, and it’s all in the receiver room. Maye had a historically effective 2025 season, leading the NFL in CPOE, EPA, EPA/DB, completion percentage and yards per attempt. He finished second in MVP voting, and he did it all with Stefon Diggs as his No. 1 receiver. Even with Diggs’ successful season with the Patriots, the team lacked talent on the outside. It showed in the Super Bowl when the Seattle Seahawks’ secondary engulfed the Patriots’ receivers, giving Maye no real targets in the big game.

The Patriots did exactly what they needed to the most this offseason and got Maye a true No. 1 receiver in Brown. They also added Packers receiver Romeo Doubs and drafted tight end Eli Raridon, who can make an impact in 2026. With all the improvements made to the roster, especially the acquisition of Brown, is this a team still headed for regression?

The impact of Brown

We already know Maye can be a top quaterback in this league based on last season, but the hope is that he wasn’t a one-season wonder. Brown has been one of the best receivers in the league since he entered in 2019; there’s no doubt about that. The reality is, he’s set to turn 29 in a couple of weeks and just posted his lowest season yardage total since the 2021 NFL season. The question was whether it was the Eagles system in 2025 or the Browns’ ability?

The Patriots clearly believe it was the Eagles’ system because they gave up first-round capital to go get Brown on their roster. Brown will be 31 by the time whoever is selected with that pick takes the field. So, will he still be a factor in two years’ time? No one can answer that right now, but the focus is on the 2026 season and how he’ll impact the Patriots’ offense.

New England needed an X-factor last season, someone Maye could look to in gotta-have-it situations. Brown is easily that with the size and speed he brings. Add Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to the mix, and he’ll get Brown the ball. We’ve seen it before with Randy Moss in New England and Devante Adams in Las Vegas. McDaniels knows how to get his playmakers the ball.

It’ll make this Patriots offense ceiling even better for 2026, and if Maye can replicate what he did in 2025 to some capacity, this offense should be better than last season. This leads to the conclusion that Brown helps keep this team from being a regression candidate. Will they win 14 games this season? Likely not, but they’ll still be in contention to win the AFC East and potentially be a top 2 seed. It’s common to label teams like the Patriots as regression candidates, but given the moves they’ve made, that’s unlikely. They still have one of the better secondaries in the NFL and a dominant defensive tackle duo in Milton Williams and Christian Barmore.

Brown makes the offense better, and the hope is that Maye can somehow get even better this next season.

The only real things stopping this team are off-the-field issues (cough, cough Vrabel) or health issues. The reality is, expect this Patriots team to be competing for a Super Bowl.