The conversation about Tua Tagovailoa has shifted fast. The former No. 5 overall pick has been the face of the Miami Dolphins offense for six seasons. Now, Tagovailoa has been pushed down the pecking order, and his future at Hard Rock Stadium suddenly feels fragile. Even more, league insiders are no longer holding back.

According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler’s report, the criticism hit hard. Across the league, NFL execs labeled Tagovailoa a “QB who can’t play football.”

One evaluator went straight to the tape.

“I saw a quarterback who couldn’t play football after his first read,” an NFL defensive coach who prepared for him said. “And then he was on the interception train damn near every week.”

On the field, the numbers painted a rough picture. Tagovailoa sits 30th in QBR at 36.7. That puts him one spot behind Justin Fields of the Jets. For a Dolphins team built on timing and speed, that ranking stings. And it has only fueled the doubt across the AFC. Still, this drop did not come out of nowhere.

In the last two seasons, Tagovailoa ranked 10th in 2023 and 15th in 2024. This year, however, the regression was sharp. He turned the ball over too often. Fifteen interceptions in fourteen games told that story. On top of that, he struggled to move. Escaping pressure was rare, and plays died early.

Of course, context matters. Tagovailoa’s durability concerns loom large. His concussion history is never far from the discussion. As per Fowler, one NFL personnel evaluator questioned if staying healthy weighed on him mentally. That concern echoed inside the building. After the 2024 season, then-general manager Chris Grier was direct. Availability, he said, was a real issue.

That pressure can change how a quarterback plays. Sometimes, it makes them cautious. That showed up late in the season. In Week 15 at Pittsburgh, with playoff hopes alive, Tagovailoa scrambled for just one yard on third-and-2. He pulled up short. He looked unsure. In December football, the silver and black exposed hesitation. Now, the Dolphins face a $99 million question that will define their future.

Tua Tagovailoa’s future depends on a $99 million decision

While Dolphin Nation debates the future, the money tells the real story. On the surface, cutting ties with Tua Tagovailoa looks impossible. That $99 million figure scares everyone inside the Magic City. However, there is a middle path. If the Dolphins label him a post-June 1 release, the damage spreads out. Instead of one brutal hit, Miami absorbs $67.4 million in dead money in 2026. That number is still heavy. Yet it is only $11 million more than his current cap charge. In cap terms, that is breathing room.

Then comes the follow-up punch. The remaining $31.8 million slides into 2027. That delay matters. Because if Miami pulls the plug early, the pain hits all at once. A pre-June 1 release dumps $99.2 million on the books immediately. On top of that, there is an added $42.8 million cap hit this year.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are not starting from a clean slate. Miami already ranks sixth in projected 2026 dead cap at $35.5 million. Even worse, the team sits at a negative $2.9 million in projected space. Still, there are levers to pull. Moving veterans like Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, and Minkah Fitzpatrick could clear close to $37 million. That is enough to stabilize things. Hill alone frees up $23.65 million if released. That is real relief.

According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, the Hill decision is brutal but logical. Age matters, health matters, and cap reality matters. Hill turns 32 in March and is coming off a severe knee injury. Letting him go opens a new lane. It allows Miami to build around 27-year-old Jaylen Waddle. That part is clear. The Dolphins held firm at the deadline. Now, the $99 million decision defines everything.