Every year in fantasy football, there are players taken in the first three rounds that are supposed to be studs. By the middle of the season, you’re regretting that pick and starting to look up local waffle houses to do your punishment. It’s nearly impossible to predict which players will get hurt, have a limited role, or just not have the season they were expected to. Today, we’ll be listing potential candidates that will be duds within the first three rounds to make you think about it a little bit before taking them early in drafts.

This ranking will be off the top 40 players in ADP rankings and based on PPR league formats. Here are five players to think twice about before they put you in a Waffle House for 24 hours.

Jonathan Taylor

Listen, I’m not here to tell you not ot draft Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor if he’s staring at you around pick five or six. He just had a dominant season, rushing for 1,585 yards and 18 touchdowns. Taylor finished as RB4 for a reason. The reality is this: we don’t know how Daniel Jones will look post-Achilles injury. He’s supposed to be ready by Week 1 and for training camp, per reports, but it could take him some time to get back up to speed.

Jones clearly was injured during the Kansas City game in Week 12, but didn’t fully get the season-ending injury until Week 14 in Jacksonville. From the Kansas City game to the end of the season, Taylor averaged 3.2 yards per carry in those seven games. When the passing game wasn’t operating at full strength because of an injured Jones and the whole Phillip Rivers experiment, Taylor struggled to find open running lanes because the passing attack wasn’t average.

If Jones comes out in 2026 and clearly isn’t operating like he was last season. Taylor may find it hard to replicate what he did to kick off 2025. He’s still worthy of taking in the first round. Because he’s Jonathan Taylor. But he may not have that high production you expect to win you a fantasy league with a below-average passing attack.

Kenneth Walker III

Listen, the Kenneth Walker takeover in the playoffs last season was electric. When he was the lead back, he showed the contact balance, explosion and vision he had to carry an offense. He did exactly that; without him, Seattle likely doesn’t win a Super Bowl. But his ADP is at 13 right now in PPR leagues, which is just way too high for a player like Walker.

Walker has only rushed for above 1,000 yards twice in his career. There’s no denying his talent, because what we just saw in the playoffs was legendary, but in an offense in Kansas City, he’s not gonna be the main option. Especially with the running back room the Kansas City Chiefs have in Emari Demercado, Brashard Smith, and Emmett Johnson. Those players won’t take significant carries away from him, but he likely won’t be used primarily as a third-down back with Johnson and Smith in the room.

Oh, and the team is led by Patrick Mahomes, who, at the end of the day, is running the show in Kansas City. Walker is a great talent and deserves to be taken decently early in the fourth round or fifth. But he’s currently getting taken over by players like De’Von Achane, Saquan Barkely, and Derrick Henry. It’s simply just way too early for a player like Walker.

Malik Nabers

For Malik Nabers, it’s all about health. Nabers went down with a torn ACL in September of last year, and he still isn’t fully cleared for training camp in just a couple of days. Now, if he were fully healthy, we’d be advocating to take Nabers because the type of talent he is is rare, and he’s the focal point of this New York Giants offense, no doubt.

During mandatory mincamp, new head coach John Harbaugh called the injury “not a simple knee” and said the goal was for Nabers to “get out there sometime in training camp.”

That’s not what you want to hear the head coach saying about his star receiver, who’s nearly an entire year into his injury recovery. Nabers got a second surgery in the spring to remove scar tissue causing stiffness in his knee. There’s no denying the talent once again, but it could take time for Nabers to fully get back to his old self, even when he gets on the field. It’s a risk in the first three rounds, which is why you should think twice before selecting him, despite the great talent he’s shown.

Bucky Irving

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving missed the entire offseason program and OTAs while recovering from surgery in the offseason. The positive? He’s fully ready to go for training camp in the coming days. A shoulder injury limited Irving to just 10 games last season, but the hope is he’s ready to be that explosive back once again in Tampa Bay.

Irving was injured, but when he did play for Tampa Bay last year, it wasn’t pretty. Among qualified rushers, Irving ranked last in yards per carry, 3.4 yards, and second to last in rush EPA per game, -3.8. The only back behind him in the rush EPA was Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jenaty, who had one of the worst lines in the league last season.

The Buccaneers have a running back room of Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker, with neither expected to take the lead back role away from Irving. But what is expected is that this group will be more of a “committee”, so Irving may not get the volume you’re expecting when taking him early in drafts.

Luther Burden III

The departure of DJ Moore has led to many hyping up Luther Burden III to be a main weapon in the Chicago Bears’ offense. The target slowly went up throughout his rookie season, and by the end of it, he looked comfortable in the NFL after taking some time to adjust. Burden as a mid-round option is great, and he has tremendous WR2 upside on any fantasy roster. The problem is the ADP, which is at 40.

Now, in a couple of months, this can look like a terrible take. There’s a lot to like with Burden. Among qualified receivers, he was 14th in EPA/Target with 0.43, and 348 of his 652 yards were YAC yardage. He’s terrific in the screen game and has the burst to take any ball into the end zone.

Just don’t get that excited about him; we don’t know how much he’ll truly be targeted this season. He had 60 targets a season ago, and yes, that’s with Moore, so that number will go up in 2026. Taking him ahead of other receivers like Zay Flowers, Ladd McConkey, and Emeka Egbuka is a little rich, which is why he’s on this list. There’s no denying the talent Burden has; he’s just going a little too early in drafts at the moment.