Week 3 in fantasy football is a big one. If you’re 2-0, you can almost guarantee yourself a spot in the playoffs with another win. But if you’re 0-2, falling to 0-3 could be absolutely catastrophic for your season.

If you start 0-3, estimates suggest you have a 12-15 percent chance of the playoffs, but being 1-2 puts those odds at 26-36 percent. If you start 3-0, you have roughly an 80 percent chance of making the playoffs, while 2-1 drops that to about 60 percent.

No matter what your record is right now, Week 3 is massively important, so I’m here to give you some start/sit advice to help you win your matchup.

Quarterback

Start: Tyler Shough

Tyler Shough went undrafted in some leagues, and in those he was drafted in, he went very late. It’s always hard to start your backup quarterback over someone you drafted early on, but Shough has proven he’s the real deal through the first two weeks of the season.

Shough has started the year with 25.2 and 22.4 fantasy points, and both of those came in road games. Now, he returns to the Superdome for the season opener, has a ton of momentum behind him after a huge road win over Baltimore, and is in an offense that is struggling to run the ball.

If the New Orleans Saints want to beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, Shough is going to have to have a big day, and I believe he will.

Sit: Joe Burrow

It’s kind of funny because I have Tyler Shough and Joe Burrow in two of my leagues, and I’m starting Shough over Burrow in both of them.

Burrow has gotten off to a pretty slow start to the season, scoring 15.2 and 16.2 fantasy points in his first two games. Tampa and Houston are no pushovers defensively, but you know who else isn’t a pushover? Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are giving up the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, with Drake Maye and Cooper Rush averaging just 8.5 PPG. I know you can’t expect Rush to be great, but Maye scored just nine points last week.

Burrow will be fine and probably give you something like 13-15 points, but there are a lot of quarterbacks with higher upside in Week 3.

Running Back

Start: TreVeyon Henderson

After TreVeyon Henderson missed Week 1 and Rhamondre Stevenson struggled to move the ball on the ground, Henderson returned in Week 2 and was the primary workhorse, out-carrying Stevenson 16-6 and playing 60 percent of New England’s offensive snaps to Stevenson’s 36.

Henderson is obviously the more explosive running back of the two, and right now, New England’s offense needs players that will make explosive plays. Without much of a passing attack, they can’t afford to give the ball to a guy that can’t make things happen after contact.

Henderson should continue to see a heavier workload, so he’s a start for me this week even against a tough Jacksonville defense.

Sit: Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren is Pittsburgh’s RB1 this season, but he’s been pretty disappointing thus far, scoring 10.3 and 9.7 fantasy points in his first two games. He’s still being started in 66 percent of Sleeper leagues, but that needs to change.

Warren is going up against a Cincinnati defense that has been excellent against the run this year, giving up just 78 yards on 27 carries to running backs this season. Add on the fact that Warren is dealing with a shoulder injury, and he’s clearly a sit for me this week.

Wide Receiver

Start: Rashod Bateman

Zay Flowers missed the Baltimore Ravens’ Week 2 game against the Saints, and Rashod Bateman had himself a very good game, catching seven of his nine targets for 88 yards and a touchdown, scoring 21.8 points. He was Lamar Jackson’s favorite target last week, and now it appears Flowers is going to miss Sunday’s game after not practicing on Wednesday.

If Flowers misses the game, Bateman will be Baltimore’s WR1 against a Dallas secondary that is improved, but still isn’t great. Even if Flowers does play, he’ll probably be limited, and Bateman should still be a viable FLEX start.

Bateman isn’t going to be a super viable fantasy option for long, but he is this week.

Sit: Drake London

I understand that Drake London fantasy owners are excited about the idea of Michael Penix returning and their second-round pick finally becoming a viable fantasy option (I don’t know why you drafted him that high in the first place, but…), but do you want to be the one who puts their entire faith in Penix’s hands in his first game back after tearing his ACL? I wouldn’t want to be that person.

Green Bay’s passing defense hasn’t been great this year, and London fantasy owners are praying he does something, but there are a ton of other receivers I’d rather start than London this week. Give Penix a week, see how he looks, and start London in Week 4.

Tight End

Start: Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft is coming off a torn ACL and had a pitch count in Week 1, but in Week 2, he played 98 percent of Green Bay’s offensive snaps. He didn’t have a great game, but neither did anyone on that Packers offense for one reason or another. If he keeps playing 98 percent of snaps, he’s going to get targets, and he has a very favorable matchup against Atlanta this week.

The Falcons give up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, surrendering 13.5 per contest, which is only worse than Detroit and Washington. He’s a borderline start for most people, but his matchup gives him an advantage this week.

Sit: Isaiah Likely

Sorry, Isaiah Likely owners. You looked like geniuses after Week 1, but fantasy football will always kick you down when you least expect it. Without Jaxson Dart, Likely’s fantasy outlook for the rest of the year just got a whole lot more grim.

Even with a matchup against Tennessee, I don’t see this offense having a ton of success, and Jameis Winston wasn’t too interested in getting Likely the ball last week, so he’s a sit for me.