Week 1 of the fantasy football season is always one of the hardest. Players and coaches change teams and new schemes are implemented, making it difficult to identify just who the best players are going to be. The first few weeks of the fantasy season are always a bit sloppy, but by Week 4 you have a much better idea of who is good and which matchups you want to avoid.

With the season kicking off in two days, it’s time for some fantasy football advice, since nobody wants to start their season with a loss. I could sit here all day and tell you to start someone like Ja’Marr Chase and sit some third-stringer on the Giants, but I’m not going to do that. For starts, I’m looking at guys that right on the fringe of being a starter that should outperform their projection, and for sits, I’m trying to find some guys who may seem like an obvious start based on their ADP, but that I think will end up underperforming because of their matchup.

Now, let’s get into the start/sit advice.

Quarterback

Start: Jaxson Dart

Opponent: Dallas Cowboys

Do I think the Dallas Cowboys got a lot better defensively this offseason? Yes. Do I also think they still have a lot of holes in their secondary that Jaxson Dart could expose? Also yes.

I’m not the biggest Dart fan in the world, and I don’t think he was the best quarterback in his draft class, but his rushing ability makes him a high-upside fantasy player, and if the New York Giants are going to keep up, they need to score some points in this matchup. I expect Dart to finish as a top-12 fantasy QB this week.

Sit: Matthew Stafford

Opponent: San Francisco 49ers

Last year’s MVP, Matthew Stafford, is one of my sits for Week 1 for a couple of reasons. One, they have to travel all the way to Australia, and international games are always sloppy, so I can’t even imagine how rough a Week 1 international game is going to be. Two, with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa back, the San Francisco 49ers have a really strong defense. Stafford should play well, but without much rushing upside, it feels like a 16-18 point week. 240 yards and a couple of touchdowns.

Start: Jared Goff

Opponent: New Orleans Saints

Jared Goff is always one of the most slept-on quarterbacks in fantasy football despite finishing as a top-10 quarterback in each of the last four seasons. He’s going to be on a lot of people’s benches in Week 1, but he plays a New Orleans Saints defense that has a lot of holes in its secondary. This is going to be a high-scoring game, so I expect Detroit to throw the ball a good bit, and Goff could easily have 3+ touchdowns.

Sit: Jordan Love

Opponent: Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings quietly had the best defense in fantasy football against quarterbacks. They surrendered a total of 211 fantasy points to QBs, which is 17 fewer than any other team in the league, and they were able to bring a lot of guys back. In fact, I think they got better defensively this offseason. Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers are going to have a tough time moving the ball in Week 1.

Running Back

Start: David Montgomery

Opponent: Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills had one of the worst run defenses in football last season, and while they should be better this year, I don’t think they made enough moves for me to believe they will instantly become a top-15 rushing defense in the league. On top of that, the Houston Texans saw how much C.J. Stroud struggled last year without a run game, so I think they’re going to come out and pound the rock with newly acquired David Montgomery. I see him as a high-end RB2 this week.

Sit: Kenneth Walker

Opponent: Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos gave up 22 fewer points to running backs than any other team in the league in fantasy football. Their opponents averaged 15.8 PPG, while no other defense gave up fewer than 17, and this is a Denver defense that didn’t lose much talent at all this offseason. While everyone is so excited to see Kenneth Walker in Kansas City’s offense, he’s going to be super touchdown-dependent in Week 1.

Start: Tony Pollard

Opponent: New York Jets

Tony Pollard seems to be the RB1 in Tennessee still, and he gets to open the season against the New York Jets, who had one of the worst run defenses in football last year. The addition of Demario Davis should help a lot in the run game, but I still don’t see them being great against the run, and Brian Daboll is going to pull out all the stops to get this run game going and help out his new quarterback, Cam Ward. Pollard should be a good FLEX start this week.

Sit: Jadarian Price

Opponent: New England Patriots

Another guy everyone, including myself, is very excited to watch this year is Jadarian Price. He played behind Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame, but was still a first-round pick, which should tell you all you need to know about his abilities. However, I don’t love his matchup in Week 1 against the New England Patriots, who have a very good run defense. That’s a tough matchup for a guy who is playing in his first-ever NFL game in the season opener. I think he’ll have a good year, but I’d steer clear of him in Week 1.

Wide Receiver

Start: Rome Odunze

Opponent: Carolina Panthers

I don’t get the whole Luther Burden is WR1 thing. He’s a talented player, and by the end of the year he could be 1B with Rome Odunze, but I absolutely believe Odunze will be the better receiver off the rip, and I think the Chicago Bears could put up a good amount of points against the Carolina Panthers. He should outperform his teammate, who is going well ahead of him in fantasy drafts.

Sit: Christian Watson

Opponent: Minnesota Vikings

I’m a whole lot lower on the Packers than most people are, so I don’t understand the Christian Watson hype either. He’s always injured – he has missed 17 games in total over the past three seasons – and even though he should be on the field for Week 1, I don’t see him doing too well for the same reason as Jordan Love. The Vikings are going to give the Packers some fits, so Watson’s Week 1 ceiling is low.

Start: Parker Washington

Opponent: Cleveland Browns

You either love Parker Washington this year, or you hate him. There isn’t much of an in-between, but I think he’s going to be the best receiver on the Jaguars this season. I think it will be close between him, Brian Thomas Jr., and Jakobi Meyers all year, which is going to make it difficult to choose between the three, but I’m high on Washington, and he gets a very favorable matchup in Week 1 against the Cleveland Browns.

Sit: D.J. Moore

Opponent: Houston Texans

I am so excited to watch D.J. Moore on the Buffalo Bills, but I would think twice about starting him in Week 1. Josh Allen is going to want to break in his new toy, but the Houston Texans have the best defense in football and gave Josh Allen a lot of trouble last year. I think this is going to be a low-scoring, grind-it-out game, so I see Moore finishing with something like five catches for 54 yards.

Tight End

Start: Juwan Johnson

Opponent: Detroit Lions

Juwan Johnson is the most underrated tight end in fantasy football this season. After finishing as the TE8 last year, he’s hardly even being drafted this year, but I don’t get why. When Tyler Shough came in, Johnson averaged 11.4 points per game, which is 0.9 PPG less than Kyle Pitts averaged, and he was the TE2 last year. Plus, Jordyn Tyson is expected to miss Week 1, giving Johnson more opportunities for targets in Week 1.

Sit: Dalton Schultz

Opponent: Buffalo Bills

While the Buffalo Bills had one of the worst run defenses in football last year, they were very good against tight ends, giving up 6.8 PPG to the position. I think the Texans can have some success against Buffalo’s defense, but I don’t think Dalton Schultz will be a major factor.

Start: Dallas Goedert

Opponent: Washington Commanders

I was skeptical of Dallas Goedert this season because I thought Eli Stowers was going to come in and be a major receiving threat right away, but all reports point to Stowers not being a major part of this offense, at least this year, after a bad training camp. That means Goedert is the clear TE1 in Philly, and Washington’s defense really struggled against TEs last season.

Sit: Sam LaPorta

Opponent: New Orleans Saints

Ever since his stellar rookie year, we’ve been waiting for Sam LaPorta to get back into form, but he just hasn’t. He’s been pretty disappointing the last two years, and that’s largely because he’s the fourth option in this Detroit offense behind Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams. I want to believe in him, but I expect another disappointing season starting in Week 1.