Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen a lot of hype around Ty Simpson start to emerge. Dan Orlovsky came out and said he believes Simpson is a better prospect that Fernando Mendoza, which was rightfully met with a lot of criticism, but he’s not the only one talking about Simpson right now.

Earlier this week, Charles Davis released his 2026 NFL Mock Draft 3.0, and he has Simpson going third overall to the Arizona Cardinals. Mike Tannenbaum also said there are some teams out there that believe Simpson is a better prospect that Mendoza.

We see this every year during draft season. After the combine, there are always some crazy reports that come out about a quarterback going much higher than everyone anticipated – a great example of this is Shedeur Sanders last year – but it’s usually just to get some clicks during the dead period.

“I think it’s a conversation point,” EssentiallySports NFL Draft Expert Ton Pauline said on the latest episode of the DraftCast. “I think it’s people tweaking for headlines. Listen, a year ago what was the big talk at this time? And it was a talk for a month and a half: is Shedeur Sanders going to be a top five pick? Was Shedeur Sanders going to go number three to the New York Giants? So I think it’s something — it’s a conversation piece that people latch on to, and that’s the headline of the day.”

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On the latest episode of the DraftCast, which can be found on EssentiallySports’ YouTube channel, Pauline broke down the recent Simpson hype and explained why it may be disingenuous.

Dan Orlovsky’s Flaming Hot Take

Dan Orlovsky loves to stir the pot, but I don’t think he was prepared for the backlash he received when he said Ty Simpson was a better prospect than Fernando Mendoza.

For starters, having Simpson over Mendoza is wild, pretty much his entire argument was based around the fact that Mendoza struggled to score against Ohio State in the Big 10 title game. Did he forget that Simpson struggled to score against Georgia in the SEC title game and Indiana in the College Football Playoff? He could only muster five points per game in those two matchups, and neither of those teams had the defense that Ohio State had, which featured three top-10 picks in this draft class.

“Fernando Mendoza was unable to score against Ohio State in the first three quarters and was unable to get the ball in the end zone in the first three quarters of that Big Ten championship game against Ohio State,” Pauline said. “Which is kind of laughable, because number one, you look at that Ohio State defense, and they’re going to have three guys selected in the top-10. And then you have to consider the fact that Indiana won the game, because when they needed a big drive — oh yeah, by the way, Fernando Mendoza led the team and got them in the end zone.

“So you know, to make that your basis — a reason why you liked Ty Simpson more than Fernando Mendoza, or even bringing that up, that he wasn’t able to put them in the end zone the first three quarters against Ohio State — is laughable,” Pauline continued. “And I saw that clip, and Pat McAfee and everybody else were basically laughing.”

As you can expect, Orlovsky was flamed on social media for this take. Here’s the clip from the Pat McAfee show that Pauline referenced.

Many are speculating that Orlovsky only said Simpson was better than Mendoza because he and Simpson share the same agency. They’re both repped by Creative Arts Agency (CAA), while Mendoza is repped by Excel Sports Management.

If he wasn’t pushed to say this by his agency, that just makes it even worse. But Orlovsky’s take my not be unfounded, no matter how bad it may be.

Mike Tennenbaum Believes Other Teams Have Simpson Over Mendoza

As I mentioned earlier, Mike Tannenbaum reported that there are some teams out there who believe Ty Simpson is a better prospect than Fernando Mendoza. Tannenbaum quoted a post of Orlovsky saying Simpson is the best QB in this class, and said that opinion is shared by other teams as well.

Could this be Tannenbaum covering Orlovsky’s butt because they both work for ESPN? Yes. But Pauline noted that rumors like this come out all the time. Back in 2021, there were teams at the Senior Bowl who had Zach Wilson rated higher than Trevor Lawrence.

“I go back to 2021, where during the Senior Bowl, all of a sudden there were stories breaking that some teams had Zach Wilson rated higher than Trevor Lawrence, which I thought was absolutely absurd,” Pauline explained. “I mean, it may have been said — and this is along those lines — that somehow Ty Simpson is rated higher than Fernando Mendoza. I’m not going to say that Mike Tannenbaum didn’t hear it. I just think that sometimes, you know, if you hear things — and I hear them all the time — you just forget about them. Sometimes you wish you didn’t because it comes around to bite you.”

Even if a handful of teams have Simpson rated higher than Mendoza, it isn’t really going to matter. All that matters is that the Las Vegas Raiders have Mendoza rated higher, because they’re going to be the ones to select him first overall.

Comparing Simpson and Mendoza’s College Stats and Measurements

Everyone has opinions, and they could be right or wrong, but you can’t argue with cold hard facts. And the fact is, all of the numbers favor Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 quarterback in this draft class. He had more total yards, total touchdowns, a higher completion percentage and threw just one more interception than Simpson did in 2025. Oh, and he won the National Championship with a flawless 16-0 record.

On top of that, all of Mendoza’s measurables are better than Simpson’s. He’s taller, bigger, has longer arms and bigger hands than Simpson, and it’s not like he sacrifices athleticism to be bigger. He was a more efficient runner than Simpson last year in terms of yards, and he made quite a few big plays with his legs.

The stats certainly favor Mendoza in this argument, but what does an NFL Draft expert with 20+ years of experience have to say?

NFL Draft Expert Compares Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza

So who is actually the better quarterback? Is Mendoza really QB1 in this class, or did Simpson do enough in one year at Alabama to prove he’s the best quarterback available? EssentiallySports NFL Draft Expert Tony Pauline believes it’s Mendoza.

“Ty Simpson is a good prospect,” Pauline continued. “There’s a lot to like about his game. He shows incredible accuracy at times. He’s right on the money. He played great football in September and October. He sees the field relatively well. He’s probably a little bit more nimble, more elusive, better picking up yardage with his legs than Fernando Mendoza, but he’s only started one year. He also stares down the primary target way too much for my liking, which is going to kill him in the NFL. Fernando Mendoza, he’s bigger, he has a better arm. I think he did a much better job leading that Indiana offense. He came up big time, after time, after time — clutch when they needed him.”

While Pauline believes Mendoza is the better prospect overall, he’s also aided by the fact that Simpson played very poorly down the stretch. He struggled in the SEC Championship and didn’t look very good in the College Football Playoff, and he puts a lot of weight into how a quarterback plays coming into the draft. So while Simpson struggled in November and December, Mendoza played lights out all year long.

“Simpson played good football in September and October,” Pauline said. “In November, he lost a bad game to Oklahoma where he struggled. He struggled against Auburn. Alabama was able to win. He got pounded by Georgia in the SEC title game. He did play a good second half against Oklahoma in that first round of the playoffs, and then they got pounded by Indiana. I want anybody to tell me where in 2025 Fernando Mendoza played bad football. Anywhere. You know, you can pick a series, you can pick a game, you can pick a month. Good luck finding it.”

“But Fernando Mendoza has showed consistent progress for three years — from Cal, his early days at Cal, to Indiana. And I put a lot of stock in that. Simpson — we don’t know if he’s shown progress because this was his first year, and really it didn’t end on a good note. Which I put a lot of premium in — quarterbacks entering the draft on a high note.”

I have to agree with Pauline here. I don’t necessarily think Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. If you stack him up against some other first overall picks in recent memory – Caleb Williams, Cam Ward, Trevor Lawrence, etc. – he’s probably one of the last ones picked. However, he is clearly the best quarterback in this class, and since the quarterback position is so important, he deserves to be the first overall pick.

As for Simpson, I’m not convinced he’s even worth a first-rounder. He played one year in college, where he was pretty good, but when push came to shove, and the lights got bright in the postseason, he fell flat on his face. That’s something teams will take into account, but again, quarterback is such an important position that someone will probably spend a first-rounder on him.

Mendoza is QB1. Anyone who tries to tell you otherwise just wants you to click on their article or video.