The 2026 NFL season kicks off in a week, and over the next seven days, millions of people are going to start placing their Week 1 bets.

Outside of the Super Bowl, Week 1 is probably the most-bet week of the entire season, because everyone is excited for the new year to start, but it’s also the trickiest week to bet. While everyone thinks they know just how good or bad every team is, the truth is, nobody really knows until they all take the field next weekend.

While fans don’t know what teams look like until the season begins, neither does Vegas. I will say that Vegas is much better at predicting than the average fan, but there are always opportunities to make some money on bad lines in Week 1.

Here are five spreads I’m placing some of my hard-earned money on in Week 1.

New Orleans Saints (+7) at Detroit Lions

I may be a bit biased because I’m a New Orleans Saints fan, but even when I take my black and gold glasses off, I can’t quite see why the Saints are seven-point underdogs in this game.

With Tyler Shough under center, the Saints’ offense took a huge leap at the end of last year, and all they did was continue to build around him with guys like Jordyn Tyson, Travis Etienne, David Edwards, Oscar Delp, and others. Defensively, there are some question marks, but they have a pretty similar defense to last year, and they finished 14th in scoring in year one under Brandon Staley.

Are the Detroit Lions a better team and likely to win this game? Absolutely. But I don’t think this is going to be a blowout. I could see the Saints keeping this one close and losing by three, even if it takes a garbage time touchdown to do it.

Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

A lot of people are high on the Carolina Panthers because they made the playoffs last year and added some big names in free agency, but they only won eight games and are dealing with a few key injuries. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears were very close to making the NFC Championship last year and made improvements to their defense.

I don’t necessarily think the Panthers will be bad this year, but I think the Bears are clearly the better team and should win this game by at least three points. I’d take them up to -4.5 in this game.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

The Green Bay Packers are becoming a bit like the Dallas Cowboys. Every year is supposed to be their year, and then it isn’t. So then the next year is supposed to be their year, and then it isn’t. I just saw ESPN had the Packers seventh in their preseason power rankings, and I just don’t understand why.

The Packers have been the 7-seed in the NFC for the past three years, and they only got worse this offseason. They didn’t make any big moves, Micah Parsons is still out, and Josh Jacobs is going to miss a lot of time on the Commissioner’s Exempt List. I know a lot of people are low on Minnesota because of their quarterback situation, but their defense is much better than Green Bay’s, and if Murray plays decent, they have enough playmakers on offense to outscore Green Bay.

The public is going to be all over the Packers in this game, but Minnesota should take it by a field goal or more.

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Giants

I’m high on the Dallas Cowboys and low on the New York Giants, so this one was a no-brainer for me.

The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in football with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Javonte Williams, and I really like the additions they made on defense. They won’t be top-10, but they should sit right around that No. 16 mark, and that’s good enough to get them into the playoffs.

While I like what the Giants are building, I don’t think they’re quite there yet. They have holes along their offensive line and at receiver behind Malik Nabers. Defensively, I would like to see them get better on the interior of their line and in the secondary.

To me, it feels like Dallas should be 5.5-point favorites in this game, so I’m hammering the -2.5.

Denver Broncos (+3) at Kansas City Chiefs

One of these teams was the 1-seed in the AFC, probably would’ve been in the Super Bowl if their starting quarterback didn’t get hurt, didn’t lose many players this offseason, and traded for a top wide receiver. The other went 6-11 last year, has a quarterback coming off a torn ACL, and lost their two best cornerbacks in free agency. Can you guess which one is favored? The latter.

The Denver Broncos should be three-point favorites in this game, but instead, they’re three-point underdogs. They are clearly the better team, and I know the game is played in Kansas City, but it shouldn’t matter. I’m taking Denver’s moneyline in this game, but if you’re afraid to do that, taking them +3 is a safe bet.