It’s crazy to think that we’re just five weeks into an 18-week season and some teams are already fighting for their lives. That’s just the NFL. It may not seem like it, but every close win or heartbreaking loss really matters and can be the difference in making or missing the playoffs.

There are a handful of teams that are already out of it. The Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, and Los Angeles Chargers are all 0-5 with no hope of making the playoffs, and while teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals do have a win, their roster just isn’t built to be competitive.

Ahead of them, though, a few teams are sitting in no man’s land. These are teams that had playoff aspirations heading into the season, but have started off slow and need to rebound in Week 6 or else the playoffs might just be unattainable. Here are five teams that desperately need to win to keep their season alive.

Dallas Cowboys

Record: 2-3

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

The Dallas Cowboys had extremely high expectations coming into the year. They had one of the best offenses in football last season, but their defense was the worst in the league, and they ended up missing the playoffs. This offseason, they invested heavy resources into their defense, drafting guys like Caleb Downs and signing/trading for the likes of Rashan Gary, Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant, and others, but they haven’t looked a whole lot better this year.

Through five games, the Cowboys are 2-3 with losses to the Giants, Ravens, and Buccaneers, all of which were by one score. This team has talent on both sides of the ball, but they’re 1-3 in one-score games, and with the way they’re playing, they’re likely to end up in quite a few more one-possession games. They need to find ways to come out on top as they did against Houston.

This week, the Cowboys will travel to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. The Packers haven’t been great either, but they’re coming off a big win over Chicago and have a ton of momentum behind them.

If the Cowboys fall to 2-4, they realistically have to win eight of their next 12 games to get to 10 wins and give themselves at least a good shot at the playoffs. Historically, if you hit the 10-win mark, you have a 91 percent chance to make it, but if you only get to nine wins, that number drops to around 50 percent. And with two games against Philly and one against San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, and Jacksonville still on the schedule, getting to 10 wins is incredibly difficult if they lose to Green Bay.

Historically, teams that start 3-3 make the playoffs at a 37 percent rate. But if you start 2-4, those odds drop to about 17 percent.

Houston Texans

Record: 1-4

Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Houston Texans started 2025 with a 0-3 record and went on to make it to the AFC Divisional Round, largely because of their elite defense. After returning pretty much everyone on defense, signing some new offensive linemen, and bringing in David Montgomery, everyone, myself included, thought they’d be right back in the postseason this year, but after five weeks, their season is in jeopardy.

The Texans one-upped themselves from last year, starting the 2026 season with a 0-4 record before picking up their first win over Tennessee in Week 5. To make matters worse, the Texans now have to travel across the pond to take on their AFC South rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars, in London (and Jacksonville has the advantage of playing there last week, so they’re already adjusted).

A loss to Jacksonville would be catastrophic for Houston. Not only would they fall to 1-5, but they’d be four games behind Jacksonville for the lead of their division, and with the way the Jags are playing, that would essentially end any hope they have of taking the division crown in 2026. They would have to at least win eight of their next 11 games to even have a shot at making the playoffs, and they still have to face Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Jacksonville again this year.

A win puts them at 2-4 and gives them a 17 percent chance to make the postseason. A loss would put them at 1-5, dropping their odds to six percent.

New Orleans Saints

Record: 1-4

Opponent: New York Giants

The New Orleans Saints came into this season believing they would win the NFC South. With Tyler Shough under center, Chris Olave and Jordyn Tyson out wide, an improved offensive line, and Travis Etienne in the backfield, this offense seemed set for a breakout season, but through five weeks, they’re sitting at 1-4 and wondering what the heck just happened.

In their first two games, the Saints traveled to Detroit, where they lost by one in overtime, and Baltimore, where they upset the Ravens. After that, they had a three-game home stand against Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Minnesota, where many expected them to go at least 2-1, but they ended up losing all three of those games by an average of 13 points. They can’t run the ball, they can’t protect the quarterback, and they can’t stop the run, which is a recipe for disaster in the NFL.

The Saints have a winnable stretch of games coming up, but they have to get back to their early-season form. They play the Giants, Steelers, Browns and Panthers over the next four weeks, who are all good teams, but they all also have their flaws.

Luckily for New Orleans, they play in the NFC South. The Panthers seem like the runaway favorites to win the division, but they still have a very tough schedule ahead of them. Nine wins would probably do it, and they could even get in with eight wins if they get lucky. Outside of Chicago and Cincinnati, the Saints are capable of beating every team on their schedule, but again, they have to get back to their early-season form.

If the Saints can beat the Giants on the road and then go to Paris and beat the Steelers in front of what should be a pretty favorable crowd, they’ll be 3-4 and need to win five or six of their last 10 games to make the playoffs. That’s doable, but they must win this week if they want any chance of making the playoffs. 1-5 is just too big of a hole to dig yourself out of.

Washington Commanders

Record: 1-3-1

Opponent: San Francisco 49ers

Two years ago, the Washington Commanders were in the NFC Championship Game. Last year, they picked in the top-10. But after a strong offseason, they believed they could get back to the playoffs in 2026, but it’s been a rough start.

The Commanders narrowly lost to Philly in Week 1 before losing Jayden Daniels for two games the following week. They would upset Seattle while he was out, but they were still desperate to get him back, and when they did, they had a big lead against the Giants before blowing it and ending up in a tie. They’re 1-3-1 heading into a must-win game, which unfortunately is at San Francisco on Monday Night Football. Not an easy task.

The Commanders are in a wide-open NFC East. Philly is blowing up right in front of our eyes, Dallas’s defense is still awful, and the Giants have been explosive, but can they be consistent without Jaxson Dart? I doubt it. This is another division where nine wins might get the job done, but they have to start stockpiling them soon if they want a chance to make the playoffs.

After San Fran, things don’t get a whole lot easier. They host the Eagles and Rams, go to the Giants and then host the Bengals. That, at best, is two wins. They do get Arizona, Tennessee, Houston, and Atlanta the following four weeks, which, at least right now, all seem winnable, before ending with Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Dallas. I don’t see more than seven wins there, and that’s probably the best-case scenario. If they’re 1-4-1 after this week, their odds of getting to nine wins are slim.

Indianapolis Colts

Record: 2-3

Opponent: Tennessee Titans

The Indianapolis Colts were one of the hottest teams in the NFL over the first half of last year, but when Daniel Jones tore his Achilles, their run ended. Now, they’re hoping to get back to the playoffs in 2026 for the first time since 2020, especially after spending multiple first-rounders on Sauce Gardner last year, but things aren’t looking too hot.

The Colts are 2-3 with losses to the Ravens, Chiefs, and Steelers, and they still have some very tough games on their schedule. They still have to face Minnesota, Jacksonville (2x), Dallas, Houston, Philly, Cincinnati, and others, so falling to 2-4 is not really an option for Indy.

If the Colts move to 3-3 and Houston upsets Jacksonville, they’re just one game behind the Jags in the AFC South. And even if Jacksonville does win, two games isn’t insurmountable. What would be catastrophic is losing, falling to 2-4 and being three games behind the lead for the division. With how well the Jags are playing, that feels impossible to overcome.

If the Colts want to make the playoffs for the first time in six years, they need to beat Tennessee this week. Luckily, the Titans have been very beatable thus far.