Week 3 was a great one if you’re a sportsbook. There was upset after upset after upset, meaning tons of people lost money betting on the NFL this week, resulting in the most profitable week of the NFL season thus far for Vegas.

Each week, I’ve been going through and giving you five spread bets to take each week, and after two straight winning weeks, I went 1-4 in Week 3. It was a bad week, but I’m not sure anyone had a great one. Here were my results from Week 3:

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) ❌

Seattle Seahawks (-7) ❌

New Orleans Saints (-3) ❌

Denver Broncos (+2.5) ✅

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) ❌

Season Record: 7-8

I’m not going to let one bad week detour me, though. Let’s see if we can do better this time around.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7)

The Buffalo Bills have been on a roll this season, but they did hit a bit of a speed bump against the Chargers last time out. Now, they return home to host their bitter AFC East rivals, the New England Patriots, who have really struggled out of the gate after making the Super Bowl last year. 

Drake Maye has thrown one touchdown with seven turnovers this year, and now he has to face a Buffalo defense that, historically, he hasn’t been great against. In two games last year, Maye threw for 428 yards and zero touchdowns with an interception while rushing for two scores against the Bills. If he can’t get this offense going this week – which he hasn’t been able to do all year – Buffalo will run away with this game.

New York Jets (+3.5) at Chicago Bears

A lot of people are going to disagree with me here, especially after Chicago’s dominant win over Philadelphia on Monday night, but just hear me out. The Bears are coming off an emotional game where their 38-year-old third-string quarterback scored three touchdowns to win by 20 points, and then in Week 5, they have to go to Green Bay to play the Packers in a heated division rivalry.

This screams trap game for the Bears, and the Jets have not been bad this season. Their offense is capable of scoring 24+ points, and their defense has been really solid this year. Don’t be shocked if the Jets win this game outright.

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at New York Giants

This game is going to be…interesting. Will the New York Giants start Jameis Winston again, or will they turn to newly-acquired J.J. McCarthy? Either way, this offense isn’t going to be very good, and I know they just held Tennessee to seven points, but their defense isn’t very good either. Meanwhile, Arizona just put up 30 against San Francisco and nearly won that game. Give me the offense I can trust more in a game that is basically a pick ’em.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders are the darlings of the NFL through three weeks. There’s always a team that goes on an unexpected run early in the season and everyone rallies behind them, and this year that team is Las Vegas. This is not me saying the Raiders aren’t good, because they are, but Kansas City is a top-five team in the league right now, and I just think this is a bad matchup for Vegas. Kansas City wins this game pretty easily, in my opinion, so I’m fine laying 4.5 points.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3)

This pick is purely based on vibes. The New Orleans Saints get to host their NFC South rivals in the Superdome on Monday Night Football on the 20th anniversary of the Domecoming – the first home game after Hurricane Katrina, when the Saints blocked a punt on the Falcons’ opening possession and returned it for a touchdown. They are not going to lose this game, especially after last week’s disappointing result. I wouldn’t go above -3, but since you can get a push with a field-goal victory, I’d take it at -3.